care to explain why we should expect sensitivity to initial conditions to matter in the particular example being discussed here?

I am struggling to convey this, so I'll have to think about it more.

For now, though: I do think that differences in the initial conditions would be propagated by adaptive individuals and institutions (rather than smoothed away). That should lead to bifurcations and path dependencies that would generate drastically different outcomes. Enough that averaging them would be meaningless.

Why do you think repeating it many times would converge? Are the statistical limit theorem conditions really met? I don't think so..

None of this really explicitly says that you ... (read more)

Open Thread June 2010, Part 3

by Kevin 1 min read14th Jun 2010627 comments


This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.

The thrilling conclusion of what is likely to be an inaccurately named trilogy of June Open Threads.