Using Bayesian reasoning, what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow? If we assume that induction works, and that something happening previously, i.e. the sun rising before, increases the posterior probability that it will happen again, wouldn't we ultimately need some kind of "first hyperprior" to base our Bayesian updates on, for when we originally lack any data to conclude that the sun will rise tomorrow?

This is a well-known problem dating back to Laplace (pp 18-19 of the book).

Stupid Questions May 2015

by Gondolinian 1 min read1st May 2015264 comments

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