Thank you for your political applause light. You just posted it on a wrong website.

Speaking for myself, I cannot really dispute whether "Cthulhu swims left" before I see a meaningful explanation of what that means.

My attempt to steelman this could be something like: "when people advance economically, they usually move from farmer values to forager values; and in the recent centuries most of the planet is improving economically". But I feel this translation is unsatisfactory, because it does not contain all those connotations of the orig... (read more)

What you know that ain't so

by NancyLebovitz 1 min read23rd Mar 201522 comments


This is an analysis of the Yom Kippur war (Egypt vs. Israel, 1973)-- the Israelis were interested in how Egypt managed a surprise attack, and it turned out that too many Israelis believed that the Egyptians would only attack if they had rockets which could reach deep into Israel. The Egyptians didn't have those rockets, so the Israeli government ignored evidence that the Egyptians were massing military forces on the border.

The rest of the article is analysis of the recent Israeli election, but to put it mildly, an election has much less in the way of well-defined factors than a surprise military attack, so it's much harder to say whether any explanation is correct. 

I'm sure there are many examples of plausible theories keeping people from getting to the correct explanation for a long time. Any suggestions? Also, is there a standard name for this mistake?