The IHME Covid19 Model is Dangerously Flawed:

Flaw #1: The model assumes the measures most states are taking now will be as effective as the lockdown in Wuhan

The model assumes, without evidence or justification, that if we take 3 of the following 4 measures (school closings, closing non-essential services, shelter-in-place order, major travel restrictions) it will “be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan”. Many newspaper articles have covered the extreme measures enacted in Wuhan, but I will summarize them here:


Flaw 3: The model chooses not to incorporate an increased mortality rate for Covid19 patients unable to receive medical care due to overwhelm of the health care system.

April Coronavirus Open Thread

by Elizabeth 1 min read31st Mar 2020140 comments


Last month’s Coronavirus Open Thread did a fantastic job at being a place for coronavirus-related information and questions that didn’t merit a top level post, but at almost 400 comments, many of which were great at the time but are now obsolete, it’s getting a little creaky. So for the next month (probably. Who knows what’s going to happen in that month) this is the new spot for comments and questions about coronavirus that don’t fit anywhere else and aren’t worth a top level post.

Wondering what happened in last month’s thread? Here are the timeless and not-yet-eclipsed-by-events highlights:

  • Spiracular on why SARS-Cov-2 is unlikely to be lab-created.
  • Two documents collating estimates of basic epidemiological parameters, in response to this thread
  • Discussion on whether the tuberculosis vaccine provides protection against COVID-19.
  • Suggestive evidence that COVID-19 removes sense of taste and smell.
  • Could copper tape be net harmful?

Want to know what’s coming up in the future? Check out the Coronavirus Research Agenda and its related questions.

Wondering why the April thread is going up on 3/31? Because everything’s a little more confusing on 4/1 and I didn’t want the extra hassle.