Thanks for pointing this out. Having recently looked at Ohio County KY, I think this is correct. %ill there max'd out at above 1% the typical range but has since dropped below 0.4% of the typical range and started rising again (which is notable in contrast with seasonal trends) [Edit to point out that this is true for many counties in the Kentucky/Tennessee area]. This basically demonstrates that having a reported %ill now that is lower than previous in the Kinsa database is insufficient to show r0<1. Probably best to stick with the prior of containment failure.

April Coronavirus Open Thread

by Elizabeth 1 min read31st Mar 2020140 comments

35


Last month’s Coronavirus Open Thread did a fantastic job at being a place for coronavirus-related information and questions that didn’t merit a top level post, but at almost 400 comments, many of which were great at the time but are now obsolete, it’s getting a little creaky. So for the next month (probably. Who knows what’s going to happen in that month) this is the new spot for comments and questions about coronavirus that don’t fit anywhere else and aren’t worth a top level post.

Wondering what happened in last month’s thread? Here are the timeless and not-yet-eclipsed-by-events highlights:

  • Spiracular on why SARS-Cov-2 is unlikely to be lab-created.
  • Two documents collating estimates of basic epidemiological parameters, in response to this thread
  • Discussion on whether the tuberculosis vaccine provides protection against COVID-19.
  • Suggestive evidence that COVID-19 removes sense of taste and smell.
  • Could copper tape be net harmful?

Want to know what’s coming up in the future? Check out the Coronavirus Research Agenda and its related questions.

Wondering why the April thread is going up on 3/31? Because everything’s a little more confusing on 4/1 and I didn’t want the extra hassle.