IHME published a dashboard with state-by-state projections of coronavirus peaks: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

The accompanying FAQ is also interesting: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

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Can anyone help me to understand these graphs? The 'deaths per day' graphs seem to incorporate actual data up to April 1st and to be projections from there, which suggests that they are using the actual death rates to calibrate some parameters of their model. But the 'hospitalization' graphs don't seem to incorporate any actual data, and seem to be very different from the reality: for example, for April 1st (when the models were last updated), the "all beds needed" and "ICU beds needed" numbers for New York S... (read more)

2ioannes_shade2moThanks, hadn't seen that. Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/ihme-projections/ [https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/ihme-projections/]
4Wei_Dai2moI was suspicious of the IHME model several days ago when I first saw it, but couldn't find a detailed description of their methodology. (It's really well hidden, and doesn't even appear in their FAQ section.) Finally found it [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1] yesterday, noticed the "similar to Wuhan" assumption, then saw the page criticizing it linked in the comments section for the paper.

April Coronavirus Open Thread

by Elizabeth 1 min read31st Mar 2020140 comments


Last month’s Coronavirus Open Thread did a fantastic job at being a place for coronavirus-related information and questions that didn’t merit a top level post, but at almost 400 comments, many of which were great at the time but are now obsolete, it’s getting a little creaky. So for the next month (probably. Who knows what’s going to happen in that month) this is the new spot for comments and questions about coronavirus that don’t fit anywhere else and aren’t worth a top level post.

Wondering what happened in last month’s thread? Here are the timeless and not-yet-eclipsed-by-events highlights:

  • Spiracular on why SARS-Cov-2 is unlikely to be lab-created.
  • Two documents collating estimates of basic epidemiological parameters, in response to this thread
  • Discussion on whether the tuberculosis vaccine provides protection against COVID-19.
  • Suggestive evidence that COVID-19 removes sense of taste and smell.
  • Could copper tape be net harmful?

Want to know what’s coming up in the future? Check out the Coronavirus Research Agenda and its related questions.

Wondering why the April thread is going up on 3/31? Because everything’s a little more confusing on 4/1 and I didn’t want the extra hassle.