A while ago ago I asked LW about their take on Aubrey's prediction (forecasting a massive and sudden shift in public awareness on the feasibility of anti-aging technology) and about how, if it is accurate, one could make money out of knowing that.

I got several answers on the first question (summary: people aren't buying it) but none on the second. Is there any way to bet on this? I know very little about pubic trading, but it feels like such a big event ought to affect the stock market somehow. Am I wrong, or is it too difficult to estimate how?

Showing 3 of 5 replies (Click to show all)
3ChristianKl3moPublic awareness of the feasibility of anti-aging technology is not the same thing as actual life-expectancy as far as serious people estimate it. If you belief that serious estimates of actual life-expectancy change, I guess there might be some financial products that securitize pension obligations that are tradable.
1Rafael Harth3moIs there a reason why it wouldn't be strongly correlated? Your "serious" modifier sounds to me like you're envisioning the consensus among masses to change while smart people are more sober. I was largely assuming that, in the worlds where Aubrey's prediction is true, actual life expectancy does, in fact, increase along with the awareness shift. Note that it's expectancy rather than actual life span. Pensions might be a good pointer.

Serious here means the data-driven models that are currently used for pricing. If you look on long-term prices of properties that are effected by climate change I don't think there's are strongly affected by changes in public opinion.

Open & Welcome Thread - March 2020

by habryka 1 min read8th Mar 202033 comments


If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a shortform post)

And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are welcome.

If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, seeing if there are any meetups in your area, and checking out the Getting Started section of the LessWrong FAQ.

The Open Thread sequence is here.