How high is "reasonable"?

EDIT: The reason I ask is so that I can add it as a prediction statement on PredictionBook.

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

I'm expecting that people are currently looking at the current balance of 22, seeing that faul_sname has predicted [10, 30], and will upvote to try to get it out of that range. Which is a good thing for Grognor. But if you want me to pick a "reasonable" estimate, the same process will repeat itself, using whatever value I give. So I need to pick a value that's high enough that I don't think people will even try to reach it.

3^^^3 ;)

Rationality Quotes May 2012

by OpenThreadGuy 8y1st May 20121 min read705 comments


Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

  • Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately.  (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments.  If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself
  • Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.