I'm pretty sure (epistemic status: Good Judgment Project Superforecaster) the "AI" in the name is pure buzz and the underlying aggregation algorithm is something very simple. If you want to set up some quick group predictions for free, there's https://tinycast.cultivatelabs.com/ which has a transparent and battle-tested aggregation mechanism (LMSR prediction markets) and doesn't use catchy buzzwords to market itself. For other styles of aggregation there's "the original" Good Judgment Inc, a spinoff from GJP which actually ran an aggregation algorithm contest in parallel with the forecaster contest (somehow no "AI" buzz either). They are running a public competition at https://www.gjopen.com/ where anyone can forecast and get scored, but if you want to ask your own questions that's a bit more expensive than Swarm. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be a good survey-style group forecasting platform out in the open. But that's fine, TinyCast is adequate as long as you read their LMSR algorithm intro.

Swarm AI (tool)

by Alexei 1 min read1st May 20193 comments

18


https://unanimous.ai/swarm/

I remember playing with this a while back, answering random questions. I guess now they've released it as a business tool for companies to run their own voting rooms.

Quick overview:

  1. You create a room.
  2. You invite 4-200 participants.
  3. You ask questions.
  4. Participants vote.
  5. You get prediction results using their AI.

Their video and website claims they got a lot of hard predictions right. Of course, they aren't saying how many other things they guessed. So it's hard to say how magical it is, but it seems worth trying out. I'm up for joining people's room if they want to run some experiments.