Explain. Are you saying that since induction appears to work in your everyday like, this is Bayesian evidence that the statement "Induction works" is true? This has a few problems. The first problem is that if you make the prior probability sufficiently small, it cancels out any evidence you have for the statement being true. To show that "Induction works" has at least a 50% chance of being true, you would need to either show that the prior probability is sufficiently large, or come up with a new method of calculating probabilities that does not depend on priors. The second problem is that you also need to justify that your memories are reliable. This could be done using induction and with a sufficiently large prior probability that memory works, but this has the same problems mentioned previously.

Open thread, Jul. 17 - Jul. 23, 2017

by MrMind 1 min read17th Jul 201770 comments


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