I can't prove what I'm going to do and I can't prove that I and the twin are going to do the same thing, because of the Boltzmann Bits in both of our decision-makers that might turn out different ways. But I can prove that we have a chance of doing the same thing, and my expected utility is , rounding to once it actually happens.

Decision Theory

by abramdemski, Scott Garrabrant 1 min read31st Oct 201837 comments


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Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

(A longer text-based version of this post is also available on MIRI's blog here, and the bibliography for the whole sequence can be found here.)

The next post in this sequence, 'Embedded Agency', will come out on Friday, November 2nd.

Tomorrow’s AI Alignment Forum sequences post will be 'What is Ambitious Value Learning?' in the sequence 'Value Learning'.