Black Swans

A Black Swansblack swan are huge risksis a high-impact event that youris hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model of prediction didnto break down when it occurs.

Considering some event a black swan doesn't account for.give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

External posts:

• White Swans Painted Black by Peter McCluskey

See also

• Narrative fallacy
• Hindsight bias
• I don't know
• Prediction, prediction market, forecast

Black Swans are huge risks that your model of prediction didn't account for.