Absurdity Heuristic

Applied to Universal Law by abramdemski at 9mo
Applied to What is bunk? by Swimmer963 at 2y
Applied to Existing Absurd Ideas by Swimmer963 at 2y
Applied to Stranger Than History by habryka at 2y
Created by Vladimir_Nesov at 2y

There isare a number of situations wherein which the absurdity heuristic is wrong. A deep theory has to override the intuitive expectation. Where you don't expect intuition to construct an adequate model of reality, classifying an idea as impossible may be overconfident. The future is usually "absurd", although sometimes it's possible to rigorously infer low bounds on capabilities of the future, proving possible what is intuitively absurd.

The absurdity heuristic classifies highly untypical situations as "absurd", or impossible. While normally very useful as a form of epistemic hygiene, allowing us to detect nonsense, it suffers from the same problems as the representativeness heuristic.