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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to Retrospective on ‘GPT-4 Predictions’ After the Release of GPT-4 by Raemon 5d ago

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Applied to GPT-4 solves Gary Marcus-induced flubs by RobertM 5d ago

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Applied to How well did Manifold predict GPT-4? by Ruby 7d ago

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Applied to Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck by Raemon 8d ago

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Applied to Forecasting Authoritarian and Sovereign Power uses of Large Language Models by RobertM 8d ago

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Applied to Forecasts on Moore v Harper from Samotsvety by gregjustice 18d ago

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Applied to Results Prediction Thread About How Different Factors Affect AI X-Risk by Ruby 20d ago

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Applied to Prediction Thread: Make Predictions About How Different Factors Affect AGI X-Risk. by Ruby 23d ago

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Applied to 2023 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold by Ruby 1mo ago

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Applied to Evaluating 2022 ACX Predictions by Ruby 1mo ago

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Applied to Do IQ tests measure intelligence? - A prediction market on my future beliefs about the topic by Raemon 2mo ago

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Applied to Thoughts on hardware / compute requirements for AGI by Steven Byrnes 2mo ago

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Applied to Ad Fraud Detection Prediction Market by Raemon 2mo ago

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Applied to What are your AI predictions for 2023? by Raemon 3mo ago

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Applied to A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability by Yitz 4mo ago

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Applied to How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? by Ishan Mukherjee 4mo ago

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Applied to AI Forecasting Research Ideas by Ruby 4mo ago

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Applied to Estimating the probability that FTX Future Fund grant money gets clawed back by Ruby 4mo ago

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Applied to Metaculus Announces The Million Predictions Hackathon by Raemon 4mo ago

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Applied to Signals of war in August 2021 by Ruby 5mo ago