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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
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Applied to
What will GPT-2030 look like?
by
DanielFilan
9d
ago
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Applied to
Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Predictions Were Better?
by
Raemon
15d
ago
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Applied to
PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance"
by
Lukas Finnveden
17d
ago
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Applied to
Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs
by
Raemon
21d
ago
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Applied to
I bet $500 on AI winning the IMO gold medal by 2026
by
Ruby
1mo
ago
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Applied to
If I adapted reciprocity.io for Instagram, would you be more inclined to use it?
by
Yoyo Y
1mo
ago
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Applied to
Clarifying and predicting AGI
by
Ruby
1mo
ago
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Applied to
What 2025 looks like
by
Raemon
1mo
ago
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Applied to
Will GPT-5 be able to self-improve?
by
Nathan Helm-Burger
2mo
ago
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Applied to
My views on “doom”
by
DanielFilan
2mo
ago
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Applied to
GJP on AGI
by
Ruby
2mo
ago
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Applied to
Manifold: If okay AGI, why?
by
Raemon
3mo
ago
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Applied to
Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10
by
Ruby
3mo
ago
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Applied to
Retrospective on ‘GPT-4 Predictions’ After the Release of GPT-4
by
Raemon
3mo
ago
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Applied to
GPT-4 solves Gary Marcus-induced flubs
by
RobertM
3mo
ago
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Applied to
How well did Manifold predict GPT-4?
by
Ruby
3mo
ago
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Applied to
Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck
by
Raemon
3mo
ago
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Applied to
Forecasting Authoritarian and Sovereign Power uses of Large Language Models
by
RobertM
3mo
ago