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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to Superforecasting the Origins of the Covid-19 Pandemic by DanielFilan 1mo ago

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Applied to 2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold by MondSemmel 3mo ago

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Applied to Is it justifiable for non-experts to have strong opinions about Gaza? by Adam Zerner 4mo ago

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Applied to Rating my AI Predictions by Robert_AIZI 4mo ago

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Applied to Some of my predictable updates on AI by Raemon 6mo ago

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Applied to Superforecasting the premises in “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?” by Raemon 6mo ago

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Applied to Road to Proto-AGI 2024 by Singularian2501 6mo ago

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Applied to My AI Predictions 2023 - 2026 by HunterJay 6mo ago

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Applied to Will early transformative AIs primarily use text? [Manifold question] by Raemon 7mo ago

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Applied to AI Forecasting: Two Years In by Ruby 8mo ago

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Applied to Non-loss of control AGI-related catastrophes are out of control too by duck_master 10mo ago

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Applied to [Prediction] Humanity will survive the next hundred years by duck_master 10mo ago

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Applied to Do not miss the cutoff for immortality! There is a probability that you will live forever as an immortal superintelligent being and you can increase your odds by convincing others to make achieving the technological singularity as quickly and safely as possible the collective goal/project of all of humanity, Similar to "Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant." by Oliver--Klozoff 10mo ago

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Applied to What will GPT-2030 look like? by DanielFilan 11mo ago

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Applied to Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Predictions Were Better? by Raemon 11mo ago

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Applied to PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance" by Lukas Finnveden 11mo ago

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Applied to Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs by Raemon 11mo ago

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Applied to I bet $500 on AI winning the IMO gold medal by 2026 by Ruby 1y ago

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Applied to If I adapted reciprocity.io for Instagram, would you be more inclined to use it? by Yoyo Y 1y ago