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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to What will GPT-2030 look like? by DanielFilan 9d ago
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Applied to Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Predictions Were Better? by Raemon 15d ago
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Applied to PaLM-2 & GPT-4 in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance" by Lukas Finnveden 17d ago
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Applied to Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs by Raemon 21d ago
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Applied to I bet $500 on AI winning the IMO gold medal by 2026 by Ruby 1mo ago
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Applied to If I adapted reciprocity.io for Instagram, would you be more inclined to use it? by Yoyo Y 1mo ago
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Applied to Clarifying and predicting AGI by Ruby 1mo ago
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Applied to What 2025 looks like by Raemon 1mo ago
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Applied to Will GPT-5 be able to self-improve? by Nathan Helm-Burger 2mo ago
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Applied to My views on “doom” by DanielFilan 2mo ago
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Applied to GJP on AGI by Ruby 2mo ago
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Applied to Manifold: If okay AGI, why? by Raemon 3mo ago
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Applied to Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10 by Ruby 3mo ago
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Applied to Retrospective on ‘GPT-4 Predictions’ After the Release of GPT-4 by Raemon 3mo ago
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Applied to GPT-4 solves Gary Marcus-induced flubs by RobertM 3mo ago
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Applied to How well did Manifold predict GPT-4? by Ruby 3mo ago
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Applied to Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck by Raemon 3mo ago
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Applied to Forecasting Authoritarian and Sovereign Power uses of Large Language Models by RobertM 3mo ago