Shut Up and Multiply

Due to scope neglect, framing effects, and other cognitive biases, the result of an expected utility calculation may be intuitively unappealing, perhaps even horrifying. And yet, intuition is not the most reliable guide for what policies will actually produce the best results, particularly in cases where we can actually do calculations with the relevant quantities. The ability to shut up and multiply, to trust the math even when it feels wrong is a key rationalist skill. The specific application of Shut Up and Multiply to the Torture versus Dust Specs case has proven quite contentious.

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