All of 615C68A6's Comments + Replies

Like many people I felt compelled to distinguish myself by solving your problem while playing by your rules (rules which aren't completely clear). But after all ... and I guess I should offer an apology if this doesn't help, but, why should any of that change anything? Picture someone who for his whole life thought he had free will, then discovered that the universe is deterministic, with all that entails about ideas like "free will" as normal people envision it. This sounds pretty similar to your situation. You discovered that you may at any poi... (read more)

Apology accepted.

Why exactly does selecting and testing work better than grooming (and breeding)

Assuming it does,

Several factors may come into play and selecting may not be the only thing that is different between our current society and say a medieval society. Quantitatively, how much of a part does this one play in our current economic success?

That being said, we also have a pretty large pool of people to select from nowadays (stemming from for instance, our total population being larger, leading to more outliers in capability/skills, and from better communication, tr... (read more)

There was something of this in "Twelve Virtues of Rationality" too, for instance :

Study many sciences and absorb their power as your own. Each field that you consume makes you larger. If you swallow enough sciences the gaps between them will diminish and your knowledge will become a unified whole. If you are gluttonous you will become vaster than mountains. It is especially important to eat math and science which impinges upon rationality: Evolutionary psychology, heuristics and biases, social psychology, probability theory, decision theory. Bu

... (read more)

How could you measure health in absolute terms anyway? Where exactly do you set the cutoff between healthy and non-healthy? Does it vary relative to current medical technology? Does your income or socio-cultural group matter, or do you average this over everyone? Why average over the US? Why not over the world, or in developed countries, or in particular states?

can only occur if for some reason we care about some people's opinion more than others in some situations

Isn't that the description of an utility maximizer (or optimizer) taking into account the preferences of an utility monster?

To get the effect that we need an optimiser that cares about some people's opinion more about some things but then for some other things cares about someone else's opinion. If we just have a utility monster who the optimiser always values more than others we can't get the effect. The important thing is that it sometimes cares about one person and sometimes cares about someone else.
I am not familiar with the details of LED lifespan, but a “white LED” in particular is not just an LED; it is a blue LED coated with down-converting phosphors to create a white color mix. Those phosphors have significantly shorter life, as noted in the article. Also, any physical object will decay over time, so I'm not sure how good an example of a thing-which-can-change-state-but-has-no-memory can exist.

There's something a little rediculous about claiming that every member of a group prefers A to B, but that the group in aggregate does not prefer A to B.

That would look a bit like Simpson's paradox actually.

I don't see how it's like Simpson's paradox, actually. You want to go to Good Hospital instead of Bad Hospital even if more patients who go to Good Hospital die because they get almost the hard cases. Aggregating only hides the information needed to make a properly informed choice. Here, aggregating doesn't hide any information. But there are a bunch of other ways things like that can happen. This very morning I did a nonlinear curvefit on a bunch of repeats of an experiment. One of the parameters that came out had values in the range -1 to +1. I combined the data sets directly and that parameter for the combined set came out around 5. In a way, this analogy may be even more directly applicable than Simpson's paradox. Even if A and B are complete specifications (unlike that parameter, which was one of several), the interpersonal reactions to other people can do some very nonlinear things to interpretations of A and B.
The situation analogous to Simpson's paradox can only occur if for some reason we care about some people's opinion more than others in some situations (this is analogous to the situation in Simpson's paradox where we have more data points in some parts of the table than others. It is a necessary condition for the paradox to occur.) For example: Suppose Alice (female) values a cure for prostate cancer at 10 utils, and a cure for breast cancer at 15 utils. Bob (male) values a cure for prostate cancer at 100 utils, and a cure for breast cancer at 150 utils. Suppose that because prostate cancer largely affects men and breast cancer largely affects women we value Alice's opinion twice as much about breast cancer and Bob's opinion twice as much about prostate cancer. Then in the aggregate curing prostate cancer is 210 utils and curing breast cancer 180 utils, a preference reversal compared to either of Alice or Bob.

I don't see how I could agree with this conclusion :

But many people don't like this, usually for reasons involving utility monsters. If you are one of these people, then you better learn to like it, because according to Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem, any alternative can result in the supposedly Friendly AI making a choice that is bad for every member of the population.

If both ways are wrong, then you haven't tried hard enough yet.

Well explained though.

The Social Aggregation Theorem doesn't just show that some particular way of aggregating utility functions other than by linear combination is bad; it shows that every way of aggregating utility functions other than by linear combination is bad.