All of _will_'s Comments + Replies

"GeneSmith"... the pun just landed with me. nice.

Very nitpicky (sorry): it'd be nice if the capitalization to the epistemic status reactions was consistent. Currently, some are in title case, for example "Too Harsh" and "Hits the Mark", while others are in sentence case, like "Key insight" and "Missed the point". The autistic part of me finds this upsetting.

Thanks for this comment. I don't have much to add, other than: have you considered fleshing out and writing up this scenario in a style similar to "What 2026 looks like"?

Thanks for this question.

Firstly, I agree with you that firmware-based monitoring and compute capacity restrictions would require similar amounts of political will to happen. Then, in terms of technical challenges, I remember one of the forecasters saying they believe that "usage-tracking firmware updates being rolled out to 95% of all chips covered by the 2022 US export controls before 2028" is 90% likely to be physically possible, and 70% likely to be logistically possible. (I was surprised at how high these stated percentages were, but I didn't have tim... (read more)

There is a vibe that I often get from suffering focused people, which is a combo of

a) seeming to be actively stuck in some kind of anxiety loop, preoccupied with hell in a way that seems more pathological to me than well-reasoned. 

b) something about their writing and vibe feels generally off,

...

I agree that this seems to be the case with LessWrong users who engage in suffering-related topics like quantum immortality and Roko's basilisk. However, I don't think any(?) of these users are/have been professional s-risk researchers; the few (three, iirc) s-risk researchers I've talked to in real life did not give off this kind of vibe at all.

4CronoDAS4mo
"There is no afterlife and there are no supernatural miracles" is true, important, and not believed by most humans. The people who post here, though, have a greater proportion of people who believe this than the world population does.