All of angmoh's Comments + Replies

Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta

I don't like listening to Rogan, but I do like hearing him translated into rationalist-speak.

Huh, sort of strong +1 this. I do like listening to Rogan talk shit with friends, and I do like the way he brings ideas and knowledge out of interesting people, but I do not like him debating.

Yet Zvi made the debating eminently readable and both actually sounded sensible, which is a skill I do not have myself. If I'd written it then it would have been filled with the irritation I felt while listening to it. Zvi wrote it really well.

Choice Writings of Dominic Cummings

Four, he has uniquely powerful ideas about how to do project management well...

I am interested in this. Any suggestions for posts that focus on project management specifically?

3ryan_b3moThe unrecognized simplicities of effective action series of posts; in particular #2(b) linked above. The dominant examples are the Manhattan Project, Atlas, and Apollo. He also spends quite a bit of time on ARPA and Xerox/PARC. Included in the blog posts are the relevant books he was reading at the time, if I recall.
A Contamination Theory of the Obesity Epidemic

Other examples of drugs that also seem to work for weight loss are GLP-1 agonists, which are relatively new and potentially promising.

Covid 7/22: Error Correction

I keep seeing references to 'long covid' by smart people, usually in the context of "we need to confirm what the effects are" but have never seen any real evidence from obscure or mainstream sources that it's something worth thinking about much. Surely if it were a real and important thing it would be identified and proven as such by now?

At this moment it strikes me as something that's probably either bullshit or a minor consideration until further evidence emerges to the contrary, but smart people continue to mention it. What am I missing?

3Lukas_Gloor6moBBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57584295 [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57584295] The Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-is-britain-now-the-capital-of-long-covid-grjpvzfvw [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-is-britain-now-the-capital-of-long-covid-grjpvzfvw] There's a good chance that the numbers are overstated because of methodological difficulties, but it's not obvious, and the numbers are high enough that it would be worth concern even if they're 50% overstated. Also, reddit is full with scary stories about Long Covid. Obviously that doesn't mean much because you get scary stories in any data set with tens of millions of people, but I think it's quite telling that a lot of people who self-declare as having Long Covid report having messed up senses of smell (e.g., strawberries tasting like burnt tyres). That's not usually a sign of normal depression or burnout. It's clearly Covid related, and it seems to happen frequently enough to produce reddit communities filled with such posts every day, and the media did report on it, and the symptoms seem to be connected (e.g., the people who report the long-lasting loss of sense/taste also have other fatigue-related symptoms, which seem to have gone up in people with past Covid as well).
Relentlessness

I think it can be argued that in the West that practical achievement and directed pursuit probably is like this at a core level - humans are capable extraordinary effort if the conditions (and pressures) are right. Parenthood is one of the things that is still like everything used to be - pushed to the edge of human capability because there isn't another option. I think for many other modern pursuits a common failure mode is indulging in the eases and luxuries of modern existence - no such option with parenthood or language immersion.

Related thought: sloga... (read more)

Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic

AFAIK the main effect from the PM's policy change seems to be around relaxing indemnity rules for GPs so that they could hand out AZ if they wanted to without getting sued by people who develop the blood clot disorder. Previously this was an issue due to the current ATAGI advice recommending against it.

I thought the PM's statement on this wasn't too crazy - the blood clot risks are objectively still very low and the ATAGI report contemplates the then near-zero covid in Aus as you note. I assume somebody in govt realised that at current and projected v... (read more)

Swiss Political System: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.)

Thanks for the article - very informative and exactly the kind of content I enjoy!

In 2017 Australia held a public survey on whether same-sex marriage should be allowed, the results of which were pledged informally to be enacted by the government. Public votes on specific issues are relatively rare in Australia, so the debate around the procedural merits of voting on this particular issue were quite active.

I recall the main arguments against conducting a survey were mostly procedural criticisms, that it is wastefully expensive to hold a postal survey when ... (read more)

6Martin Sustrik1yThe thing about the cost is that it's already paid. Voting happens four times a year in any case and adding one more initiative doesn't change much. There's certainly a cost associated with government and parliament processing the initiative, but again, that's what they are expected to do, it can't be really thought of as an extra cost.