All of AnnaGilmour's Comments + Replies

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I find the term useful. I think it is what a lot of the media has done. Since Amanda and Raffaele are in discussion and named in the theory, there must be something to it and they have equal weights of measure for concern as the third suspect, Rudy. When in fact, they are very lightweight and the (heavy) weight should be attributed to the method by which they became suspects. The term helps me to say "Oh that's what is going on." Like komponisto said, a whole category of error. (Not to mention all the contexts apart from this specific case, the topic at hand, indeed.)

5komponisto11yQuite right. It's actually amazing how little attention was paid to Rudy Guede in the media coverage of this case, particularly in the U.S. and U.K. media. (Numerous stories either omitted all mention of him altogether or else referred briefly and vaguely to "a third suspect" -- without any hint about the disparity in evidence.)
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Therefore, I offered 0 in the spirit of Goedel's completeness theorem, yes, at the expense of consistency. Consistency will yield a perpetual motion situation. Completeness is required and can be appropriately reached through reasoning, logic, objectivity, etc. Something can only consistent OR complete. Not both.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I am also pointing out that is a question pertaining to applied situation with a limited scope - the decision to convict or exonerate. For all intents and purposes, relative "knowing" is permissible in a legal case, since we are dealing with human events and activities of a finite nature - a court decision is a discrete (not continuous) matter. After a certain point, probabilties have to turn into decisions.

-3AnnaGilmour11yTherefore, I offered 0 in the spirit of Goedel's completeness theorem, yes, at the expense of consistency. Consistency will yield a perpetual motion situation. Completeness is required and can be appropriately reached through reasoning, logic, objectivity, etc. Something can only consistent OR complete. Not both.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The thing that I am trying to point out is that I believe Amanda and Raffaele were wrongly included in the class called "suspects".

2komponisto11yYes indeed -- our term for that here is privileging the hypothesis [http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Privileging_the_hypothesis].
0AnnaGilmour11yI am also pointing out that is a question pertaining to applied situation with a limited scope - the decision to convict or exonerate. For all intents and purposes, relative "knowing" is permissible in a legal case, since we are dealing with human events and activities of a finite nature - a court decision is a discrete (not continuous) matter. After a certain point, probabilties have to turn into decisions.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The concept of limits is a great way to look at this. A limit is a thing unto its own, a complex statement indicating, confirmed as much as is humanly possible.

Another notion is what Goedel brings to the table. His contribution of something being consistent or complete is relevant.

Well, maybe she had superpowers. Or was killed by her time-traveling past self. When you get to probabilities this low, boy do you ever get to make shit up.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Well, it is quite fascinating that no one gets a 0 probability. Just to ask, does Meredith get a 0 probability? I will move past understanding the exclusion of 0. I just want to make sure I understand. Anyway, when I say 0, I understand it to mean functionally 0, which is the same as .0000000001, which is also functionally 0, correct? Thank you for you patience.

7Alicorn11yMeredith could have committed suicide. She's probably more likely to be responsible for the death than Princess Diana. And she's much more likely than the team of Batman-and-square-circle.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Is it possible to show that it would be impossible for them to have been participants making it 0? Is there anyone in the world in that class - of 0? Trying to understand the parameters of "probability".

5RobinZ11yI agree with Alicorn - a probability of 0 or 1 can only be legitimately used as hyperbole. (There's a technical explanation for why to exclude probabilities of 0 and 1 [http://lesswrong.com/lw/mp/0_and_1_are_not_probabilities/], but it assumes you have studied and understood Bayes theorem [http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes] and know how to think about probabilities in real life in Bayes terms [http://yudkowsky.net/rational/technical].)
3Alicorn11yExactly-0 isn't on the table at all. Close-enough-to-0-that-you-can-represent-it-that-way-without-too-much-disclaiming is reserved for propositions like "a square circle and Batman teamed up to, not kill, but kidnap and replace with a convincing inert android, Meredith". Princess Diana's odds of having killed Meredith are miniscule, but not zero or even compellingly zerolike, compared to those.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

In other words, his psychological profile and actions leading up to the murder do not indicate that he was above board and immune from a violent attack, especially an attack with a knife. He was also known around town to go too far in the direction toward harassment of females around town at the clubs and so forth. He was also known to do various drugs including aggression-increasing drugs such as cocaine. He was known to break and enter and steal, and that he carried a ten inch knife "for protection" (his words). It could be argued then that... (read more)

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

It is true that a high probability of a prior is not necessary for probability of guilt.

It is also true, however, that it doesn't mean that he didn't have a high prior. I could drop it to .3 though. With the actions in the previous weeks, a case could be made that he was in an escalating pattern of behavior, which is why I gave him a .5 prior.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Thank you. Yes I've seen the post by Rolf Nelson.

I don't understand (though I admit for expediency's sake did not fully read the 0/1 link which I should do if I post here) how there cannot be an absolute for innocence. I didn't assign 1 to Rudy Guede for the reason you mention. But in terms of innocence, we know for example that Princess Diana didn't kill Meredith and that the mayor of Seattle at the time did not kill Meredith, so how can it not be zero? I wrote zero for a specific reason. I wanted it to indicate that gap between reasonability of arre... (read more)

0komponisto11yYes, that would be more reasonable (indeed, it's about where my own estimate is).
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

This should allow us to quickly pinpoint our disagreement(s).

The disagreement most likely stems from the reliability of the Micheli Report for accuracy and comprehensiveness.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Posterior probability estimates:

  1. 0
  2. 0
  3. .9

Priors:

  1. .01
  2. .01
  3. .5

Is that the sort of thing you are asking? I don't know if I attributed correctly.

0komponisto11yAnna: for the context of this, see here [http://lesswrong.com/lw/1pp/open_thread_february_2010/1jky]. You may want to remember that 0 and 1 are not probabilities [http://lesswrong.com/lw/mp/0_and_1_are_not_probabilities/]. Also, I must say I don't understand your extremely high prior of 0.5 for Guede. (The evidence against him is such that the prior could be much, much lower and he would still have a very high probability of guilt.)
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

You are making an assumption, one exaggeration, and one statement of belief.

Assumption: More than one person is known to be involved. (Not established.)

Exaggeration: someone known to one of the occupants (He was known to the occupants in the cottage below and only only known of by one the occupants alleged to be involved.)

Belief: found to have a false alibi (There is no proof or acceptable evidence that that occupant has a false alibi.)

The means by which the prosecution set about to establish that more than person was involved is suspect. The means ... (read more)

1komponisto11yIt's worth mentioning that what is meant by "false alibi" in the first place is some trivial memory lapse, such as Sollecito misremembering the time when he was browsing websites, etc.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

"Interpreting evidence is always a matter of inference."

Without physical evidence of something, how do you, except by imagination, come up with an explanation? Logic of the situation, yes. But this forms a tautology in this case. She broke the window and staged a break-in (though there is no physical evidence that suggests this) because... why? Because... someone wants it to look like she did the crime. My point was that komponisto showed how you have to have a reason in the situation itself to suggest it. This theory of the staged break... (read more)

-1brazil8412y"The reason to suspect Amanda of a staged break-in is that more evidence is needed to implicate her in the crime." That's one reason. A better reason to suspect Amanda of a staged break-in is to note that there is in fact evidence of a staged break-in and to observe that (1) it's mainly somebody who was closely associated with the victim who would have had a motive to do such a thing; and (2) Knox had a good opportunity to do so. "only thing that made Amanda stand out in this regard " stand out compared to whom?
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

micio quoted:

"while Knox's defenders have no trouble complaining that jurors judged her unfairly based on her behavior in the days after the murder (purchasing sexy lingerie, frolicking around town and making out with her boyfriend), they don't mind pointing out her gentle appearance - or arguing that she has a reputation for being "sweet and generous and kind" etc. In other words - they're fine with exploiting Knox's image only to the extent it lines up with the idea that she's "not the type" who could kill another human being in ... (read more)

3wedrifid12yUse a '>' at the start of a paragraph that is a quotation
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

A fascinating look at Roman law versus Germanic:
"Italian Law and You - Welcome to the Jungle!" by Amanda Sorensen
http://www.bestofsicily.com/mag/art315.htm

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I find the evidence of the conspicuousness of the prosecution's investigation and case for Amanda and Raffaele's guilt much more suspicious and compelling than the evidence left by Amanda and Raffaele. What would the probability/certainty numbers be on that?

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The lack of DNA evidence of a additional perpetrators corroborates the single suspect coroner's result.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The following is from a recap of the defense's arguments on closing day. The recap was written by Kelly Brodbeck who was summarizing Ghirga's arguments. I think he got the rundown from a person present at the trial. This is the first thing I can cite. Will continue to look for more.

"He talked about how Mignini stated that the position and condition of Meredith showed that there was more than one person involved in the murder, but when the coroner Dr. Lali said that the body did not show that more than one person was involved, Mignini fired him and replaced him with someone who agreed with his assertions. He said “I wonder why he was really fired??” "

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I am new to this site. Can someone elucidate for me why the statement above might have been seen as a minus? Just curious. I was asking for the logical link between the condition of the room and Amanda. One hasn't been provided, not even by the prosecution.

-6pataz112y
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

No problem... I think even Mignini doesn't dispute it. But I'll seek it out.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

It is extremely weak on its own, and its weakness is compounded and confirmed by the strength of evidence of someone else. The reason for this is that the strong evidence sets up a perameter, a reference point of what is possible for evidence left behind. It puts lines on the thermeter by which to read the murcury. This is because there is also no evidence of collusion, so the physical evidence has to carry most of the weight, if not all. Otherwise, the prosecution's case operates via a tautology.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I don't believe there was a staged break-in, but even if there was, how does one logically go from "staged break-in" to Amanda staging it? I detect a logical gap.

1AnnaGilmour12yI am new to this site. Can someone elucidate for me why the statement above might have been seen as a minus? Just curious. I was asking for the logical link between the condition of the room and Amanda. One hasn't been provided, not even by the prosecution.
Previous Post Revised

From there, after establishing that Guede is guilty, you have to establish that there was complicity between Rudy and Amanda and Raffaele, of which there is no evidence.

Previous Post Revised

The only way that Guede is innocent is if Meredith and he had consentual relational activity and if it could be also possible that the real perpetrator left no (or little/untested for) DNA while at the same time allowing for Guede to leave a lot of DNA. To leave it there is even highly suspect, as there may be further incriminating facts that I will think of after posting this comment. Also, his journal indicates that he was not outside the event - he did not call the police, for example. Also, at the far stretch of the possibility that someone else did it, he admits blatently in an unprovoked journal, that he left, letting her die.

3SilasBarta12yHold on: I was asking why there aren't any pro-Guede sites, not for reasons Guede could be innocent. You don't need actual truth of a proposition to find people willing to be rabid defenders of it, remember? :-)
0AnnaGilmour12yFrom there, after establishing that Guede is guilty, you have to establish that there was complicity between Rudy and Amanda and Raffaele, of which there is no evidence.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Douglas, you mention that crap evidence is "normal" even if they have better evidence, but is it normal to not also present the claimed better evidence?

3pete2212yAgain, can you give us your source for this? I'm not doubting you, I just want to get an idea of where it comes from.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

First question, how is Meredith's murder not a fact? Are you saying we have to prove she was murdered? Maybe I should have said death rather than murder. Is that what you mean?

Second question, what do you mean by "taking them at face value..."

Third, what am discounting?

Fourth, what such reports are you asking about for the reports?

Fifth, what do you mean by the last sentence, particularly "reasonable prior"? Can you reword? I'm not sure how the word "prior" is used on this site...

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

In terms of the rules of the post, it takes a leap to get to the idea of a staging. One has to infer it. Amanda's DNA is not on the glass or the objects, anyway, even in the unlikely event that there was a staging.

1brazil8412y"In terms of the rules of the post, it takes a leap to get to the idea of a staging. One has to infer it." Sorry, but I have no idea what this means. Interpreting evidence is always a matter of inference.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I'm sayinig he made up the staged part, since the evidence for a staging (rather than a break-in) did not exist in the crime scene. He imposed his ideas on the reality before him. He looked for things to support his idea, and those things were shown to be false or unrelated logically to Amanda.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

To have evidence of a break-in is different than having evidence of a staged break-in. Since there is evidence of a break-in, but not any that would say it was staged, there is evidence of an invented idea of a staged break-in. I'm not saying that a lack of evidence of something being staged means it wasn't. But going the rules in the post, there is nothing that would indicate it was staged from the evidence itself. That part is fallacious. It exists in the mind of Mignini, not in the evidence.

Does that clarify what I mean?

0brazil8412yNot really. For example, the ransacking of a room but the failure to take valuable items in plain view is evidence of a staging. Yes, there are other explanations for this evidence but that does not mean it's not evidence of a staging.
1AnnaGilmour12yI'm sayinig he made up the staged part, since the evidence for a staging (rather than a break-in) did not exist in the crime scene. He imposed his ideas on the reality before him. He looked for things to support his idea, and those things were shown to be false or unrelated logically to Amanda.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Also, Meredith's $300 was missing, and somehow he had the money to ride a train the next day to Germany.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I think he was looking for money. It was the 1st of the month and rent was due. Meredith had dated casually a guy downstairs and Rudy had hung out there. Also, I think it is likely he didn't expect to find anyone home and was interrupted when Meredith came home early, for an early night. I don't think he was planning to take objects, though might have if uninterrupted.

0brazil8412yI don't understand what point you are trying to make. There is a difference between saying that evidence can be explained away and saying that the evidence does not exist.
2AnnaGilmour12yAlso, Meredith's $300 was missing, and somehow he had the money to ride a train the next day to Germany.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

I don't think there is evidence of a staged break-in. I think there is evidence of a break-in.

0brazil8412yWell do you agree that the room's occupant testified that there had been valuable items in plain view, none of which were taken?
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

If you type "Mignini fired coroner" into Google, a list of articles comes up. There were too many from which to choose.

Additionally, a great specific, scientific explanation and analysis on the LCN DNA gathering and testing can be found at ScienceSpheres by Mark Waterbury. He starts the blog that way. He has a PhD in materials science.

1pete2212yI tried a Google search -- I get a few mentions of Mignini firing his coroner, but they either don't mention a reason or they say it was punishment for leaks to the press. None seem to be from impartial sources, i.e. one is from that truejustice site, another is an article in the Stranger (seattle weekly) by a friend of Amanda's ...the closest thing to a real news site was a Vanity Fair article, and like the others it doesn't mention the first coroner saying there was one assailant. This is the problem I mentioned in another comment -- all of our info is second- or third-hand. I'm surprised at how comfortable people are citing this stuff. If this was a comparably public case in the US, there's a good chance the entire reports from both the old and new coroner would be on the Smoking Gun and we could be linking to them directly...
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Logically, items strewn around the room does not implicate Amanda. The connection of the messy room and Amanda was invented by the prosecution. It could be explained by various means, namely, during the struggle with the perpetrator and Meredith, or more likely, the perpetrator looking for something to steal.

0brazil8412yI'm not sure what your point is. I thought you were claiming that there was essentially no evidence which reasonably supports the hypothesis that somebody staged a burglary or break-in. Now it seems you admit that there is such evidence but believe it could be explained away.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

http://www.casavaria.com/cafesentido/2009/12/05/5268/amanda-knox-sentenced-to-26-years-in-italy/

These are the concerns as delineated. From the above linked blog.

"The case for appeal is complex and rests on several very firm claims of prosecutorial misconduct:

1.The defense was denied the opportunity to present its own DNA experts;

2.A neurologist acting as witness for the defense testified that Knox could have been subjected to such intense stress, between the horror of the killing and police intimidation that she falsely remembered details that initia... (read more)

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

For the most horrible information about Guede, read his journal. Not fun to read, as it is very dark, but reveals a telling psychological profile as well as shows his time line the night of the murder. His Skype conversation as well gives a lot of information.

On the other hand, if you read Raffaele's writing, it shows his innocence.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Her alibi was not proven false. Where did you read that her alibli was proven false? Just curious.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Other evidence of mistreatment are Raffaele's and Patrick's prior statements of similar treatment. They said it before the defamation claim by the police, which by the way, was made much time after the incident and was the day before the closing arguments by the defense.

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The only evidence was a broken window. He provided the unbased theoretical narrative (as usual).

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The idea of a staged burglary came from Mignini and was unsubstantiated. Since then, it has been debunked. He claimed it was staged due to two shards of glass on clothing. Those shards close up were revealed to be polka dots.

0brazil8412yWell do you agree that one of the bedrooms had clothing and such strewn around it while the owner of the room testified that the room had been left orderly?
0AnnaGilmour12yThe only evidence was a broken window. He provided the unbased theoretical narrative (as usual).
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Something new I saw this morning. Quite incriminating of the investigation.

"Amanda Knox - Police Deceit - "Assassins" of Character" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHleYhBJy8k

2Feh12yThe above Youtube video is worth watching. If there is even one mistake like this by the police in a criminal investigation, I think they should be forced drop the investigation, rather than to risk putting innocent people in jail due to the police's incompetence or bias.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

Just curious how the two above 10:08:41 and 12:13:49 are seen as lacking. Trying to learn. Thank you...

The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The significant factor though is not that the coroner was fired and replaced by someone who would report multiple perpetrators. The significant factor is that the original, unprompted, unbiased, objective analysis was that it was a single perpetrator.

0pete2212yAnna, I'd be curious to see the link on this when you get a chance.
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

The idea of a staged break in is unsubstantiated. There is a broken window. Mignini added the interpretation without evidence of such a thing. The two shards on top of the bed turned out to be polka dots on a piece of clothing.

Load More