Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place. But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
Isn't the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?And it works fairly well?Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out.
What I fear is being left out of certain social outings because I don't drink and you out it succinctly.
We are the minority but I think our minority is not so small.
I also agree with you that the AA framing turns me off. I wonder when western society will stop seeing people who don't drink as someone who used to have a problem?
https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.htmlNot sure why this wasn't looked any further.
I found the perfect hedge: I bet $5,000 to win $33,500 that the following Metaculus question resolves YES https://metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/…
Bet is voided if resolution is ambiguous.
Yeah this sucks, and I have no idea how to fix it. But if you want top notch information of what's happening at the front lines in SF, follow this twitter account:https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1475188579684913152
Zvi, are you betting your beliefs on Polymarket?
Have you seen the flip of the record cases market in the last three days?
A few ways to hedge that were floating in my head:
Long natural gas futures
Long Brent oil futures
Buy VIX calls
Buy DXY calls
Buy VGK puts
New Omicron market on Polymarket:https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022
If you use the platform, just link your polymarket address and people can peer to peer you tips at no cost.
Hey Zvi, do you accept tips through Polymarket?
Zvi you got one of your markets:https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fda-give-emergency-use-authorization-or-otherwise-approve-paxlovid-before-2022
Re: effectiveness of Paxlovid vs Omicron: https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/status/1464099757408751616?t=_ewDKnnijBgpeAzydqew4g&s=19&fbclid=IwAR2Jmkxy_iLjXkQhUoGrtBqMimpqBTWy5NLPRWheemNWcJAcT6j93JjydWA
It stays in the contract until a new mint (called it mint B) happens. Then the 30 day clock begins again. If no new mints happen in those 30 days, then mint B takes 50% of that 50% remaining.
I assumed that, or derivatives of those commodities.
Thank you. I am inferring that your investing portfolio is 100% in equities and equity derivatives, and it seems that quite a bit of it is in high beta stuff. So you combine high beta with derivatives (leverage), and you get a great combination of risk that in the 22 months that you've invested paid off quite handsomely.
Congratulations, your ability / willingness to bear risk combined with timing has worked. I hope we get to see future updates on your strategy.
Can we get a snapshot of your portfolio? I am interested in seeing what you hold / held to assess your risk adjusted return. You started investing at a time where virtually all real assets beat their mean averages substantially. It was quite difficult to lose money investing in capital markets if you bought in January 2020 and held until today.
Did you just call me an NPC?
Polymarket is prediction a 65% chance of a cases trend reversal starting on November 10: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-17th-be-higher-than-the-7-day-average-of-covid-cases-on-november-10th
Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?
You can actually bet on it: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1
Any reason why not use your reasoning and expertise to put skin in the game? Polymarket has a couple of markets such as this one:
Zvi, what do you think of this market, given the rise in the delta variant?https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1
Whoa, I always read it as Metacalculus. Editing on both thanks for the heads up.
Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.
This is true. Polymarket has a couple of tricks to save on fees.
I don't think that's the case. Having access to an accurate probability about whether the Olympics will tell local hotels about how important it is to have a lot of beds available. It will tell AirBnB whether it makes sense to run ad campaings to get people to rent out their homes for hosting tourists that come for the Olympics.
I agree with you. Didn't really think of this to be honest!
The problem with doing it on the Ethereum network is gas fees. Even with super low gas fees (~$3), this strategy would cost over$100 to implement. I agree that doing this on Polygon / Matic is not ideal, as it is a sidechain / quasi L2 solution that sacrifices decentralization for speed and cost, but for illustration purposes, it works. It takes ~40 mins to bridge Ethereum from the Matic network to the Ethereum mainnet,
This write up is a good complement to this post: https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/DeFi-Beyond-the-Hype.pdf
I am excited to go to the US in July to get my shot.
Where I live, my age group will be eligible sometime in September. Might as well make a vacation out getting vaccinated.
What do you say about the behavior of those of us who had COVID 6 months ago or after?
Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps.
But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market.
I studied and worked in finance and I don't think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth.
Thank you for your response!
I have made some changes to the original post regarding your nitpicks. I agree with them. I also appreciate your in depth breakdown of all of my sections, I think the community here will appreciate your detail follow up / counters to my post. I am trying to think of a way to edit my post so that it is more clear that I use USTs and risk free rate interchangeably.
Solid primer. It is hard to really simplify this subject but I think you did a decent job.
I remember how much it irritated my advanced investment finance professors that variance and volatility were used interchangeably. But even in the whitepaper the CBOE uses the term volatility. Considering the simplistic nature of the post, I will add a footnote to make the definition more clear. Thank you.
Regarding prediction markets, have you seen this piece by Vitalik?https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html
I came in here to say leverage. There are options outside of margin lending that are interesting to explore, such as:
Investment Loan (Although the rate is similar to that of a margin loan)
Home Equity Line of Credit (Cheaper than the above)
Borrowing to re-investing and pledging your assets as collateral has been used for decades by wealthy investors to increase their return.
I use these products:
Yeah I didn't write about the gamma squeeze because I wanted to keep the length of the post short. But you bring up an excellent point.
I agree with you, but that goes beyond the scope of my intention when writing this post. This post was meant to be as elementary as possible.
I saw it and sent it to my Canadian friends. They really appreciated your update.
While I concur with your conclusion, I fear that if mainstream media presents the results like you did in this post, it will create a perverse incentive. I posted the UK press release in my social media and immediately folks started saying that they should try to catch it in order to get immunity.
Is it possible to make this a standalone post? This is fantastic information.
Agreed on both comments. Hopefully the pre-print is more clear
Interesting report on reinfections came out today.
"PHE scientists working on the study have concluded naturally acquired immunity as a result of past infections provide 83% protection against reinfection, compared to people who have not had the disease before. This appears to last at least for 5 months from first becoming sick."
Great answer. Thank you.
I hadn't really thought about Trump resigning, but I don't believe the odds of that happening are anywhere near 20%.
Great post as usual.
I just want to update you that my sister got the first jab in UAE on Tuesday. She's in her late 20s and works from home. Literally last in any vaccine priority list.
She walked in first thing in the morning, walked out in less than 20 minutes. She will be back on the 26th for her second shot.
Have you looked at this preprint? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1I found it linked from here: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/04/variants-and-vaccines
I don't really understand your second graph. Didn't the S&P 500 Total Return already recover all of its losses since the crash?