Why don't you have to take into account the prior probability of the large mistake that occurred? Of course, you might be biased and believe it to be smaller than it truly is, in which case there should be a whoops moment (your mistake was overconfidence), but clearly there must also be cases in which there was a small prior probability of a big mistake. Shouldn't we not judge these cases by only examining the outcome?
Can you imagine the reductions in the number of students able to handle coursework if professors actually made their students think rather than memorize.
Unfortunately, it seems that most universities are obsessed with making money and thus need to address the abilities and intellect of a wider audience... not everyone is capable of the upper level critical thinking suggested here.
It's strange that it sounds like a rationalist is saying that he should have listened to his instincts. A true rationalist should be able to examine all the evidence without having to rely on feelings to make a judgment, or would be able to truly understand the source of his feelings, in which case it's more than just a feeling. The unfortunate thing is that people are more likely to remember the cases when they didn't listen to their feelings which ended up being correct in the end, than all the times when they were wrong.
The "quiet strain in the b... (read more)
a rationalist should acknowledge their irrationality, to do otherwise would be to irrational.