All of azzu's Comments + Replies

How exactly did life become difficult for you?

I have local lows when I encounter difficulties, but those pass pretty quickly as I approach or solve those difficulties.

I'm pretty rational and I chose to become happy, and now I feel happy most of the time. I'm continuously choosing to be happy.

Idk if that's some valid evidence for you (or if you even care after 10 years lol), you'd have to believe me that I'm rational and that I'm actually happy, but there you go :D

Once in 6th grade, my teacher read us a story about a man who chose to be happy. I was like "holy shit you can do that?" and then I was happy for like the next 7 years. Then life became difficult in various ways and I haven't been as happy since. I still can locally choose to be happy on the timescale of hours but it doesn't feel sustainable.

Wouldn't the prior odds in the bell example be 1:4 when the chance is 0.2? But written is 1:5.

The prior probability of rolling a 1 is 1/6 = ~0.16. The prior odds of rolling a 1 are 1:5 = 1/5 = 0.2. Some sources would call the 0.2 a "chance" to communicate that it's an odds and not a probability, but Eliezer seems to not do that, he just uses "chance" as a synonym for probability: Don't get confused, this 20% probability of hearing the bell is not the 0.2 from earlier.