All of benjaminikuta's Comments + Replies

One of the highest rated photos in the Optimized Dating discord server is a guy posing with his cats. 

Couldn't they just tax bitcoin mining and come out ahead overall? 

Potentially, but that would require a lot of bitcoin people to admit that government intervention in their activity is at least sometimes good, and given all the other flaws of bitcoin like having irreversible transactions, it truly is one of those products that isn't valuable at all in the money role except in extreme edge cases, and pretty much all other inventions had more use than this, which is why I think that in order for crypto to be useful, you need to entirely remove the money aspect via some means, and IMO, governments are the most practical means of doing so.

I don't see how this can't reasonably be called procrastination. 

1Neil 1mo
These are all sub-types of procrastination. In my experience, thinking about this as "procrastination" is less helpful than ignoring that word entirely and finding the specific reason why I'm procrastinating instead. I'm not trying to redefine procrastination, only saying that you may want to taboo it. 
Here it is! 

Parents think it's not okay to roll a toy down the slide, seriously? 

Generally they're opposed to using toys not as intended. It is kinda dicey given they can't easily see if anyone is at the bottom of the slide, but the worst that happens is someone gets knocked over.

Regardless of the cause, there's something to be said for being so dedicated. 

Seems impractical if your income is a salary, which is quite common. But anyway thanks for posting this, it's very interesting. It's cool that there's a whole well documented community devoted to the workings of tax collection from an adversarial perspective. 

High income rats are presumably disproportiatly likely to want a passport. 

Don't be so influenced by what Netflix deems suitable to show you. 

Worrying about extinction is one thing, and we're nowhere near that point, but does the pro fertility case rely on the philosophical assumption that more people is better? Surely you can see how some people might not find that very compelling.

2Radford Neal4mo
I think that various "pro-fertility" people have a variety of motivations. But "more people are better" ought to be a belief of everyone, whether pro-fertility or not.  It's an "other things being equal" statement, of course - more people at no cost or other tradeoff is good.  One can believe that and still think that less people would be a good idea in the current situation.  But if you don't think more people are good when there's no tradeoff, I don't see what moral view you can have other than nihilism or some form of extreme egoism. BTW: I'm not ruling out an expansive definition of "people" - maybe gorillas are people, maybe some alien species are, maybe some AIs would be - but I think that's outside the scope of the current discussion.

I think plenty of guys would be willing to settle for less than perfect. 

Could this work with email? Some emails are productive, and some are procrastination. 

I share your frustration. I made ONE downvoted comment and then was restricted for quite some time. 

1Alex Vermillion5mo
I wanted to muse on this more: Part of the back of my mind wondered if the comment was "bad enough" to be worth it, but then I realized it doesn't really matter, because the tradeoff is average positive karma versus single negative karma. If you have an average karma of +3, then a single -50 will take an extremely long time to recover from, even if it was something silly like your comment being misinterpreted as hostile. On balance, I agree with you, but I thought it was worth sharing why.
No, nothing new yet. I've just been buying a bit of the major AI-related companies; Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and TSMC.

Just wanted to register my complaint that I find it somewhat annoying to be rate limited, and somewhat surprising this wasn't targeted more specifically at new users, which was the impression I got from earlier posts. Also I would have commented earlier, but each time I thought to do it was when I was rate limited, lol. 

You can get long term leverage buying deep in the money calls and rolling them.

Hey, is this still happening?

Related, but, I've talked with multiple rats who, after some convincing, basically admitted, "Yeah, assuming it would actually work, I suppose I actually would push the nuclear button, but I would never admit it, because saying so would have various negative effects." 

I also oppose the prior against financial advice, especially crypto, considering Bitcoin is one of the ways "rationalists should win".

"An underappreciated element is that dishwaters calibrate how much cleaning they do based on the amount of dirt on the dishes."

Interesting. How? 


Kinda amazing that the dishwasher cleans the baked on cheese effectively. 

See also: Put Dirty Dishes in the Dishwasher.

When I canvassed for a political campaign, it was one of the most fun jobs ever because we all lived and partied together. 

The stock market has never declined over a 20 year period, but it has declined over 10 year periods, so if you're particularly risk averse, that could be quite the difference. 

Do you have a source for the misconception being common? 

No. This is drawn from my own personal experience reading comments by otherwise knowledgeable academics or professionals in the ART industry. It's also something I read online a lot in forums such as reddit. Inevitably one of the top comments on most articles about human genetic engineering is along the lines of "we don't understand anywhere close to enough about genetics to make the proposed changes". If this is really important to you I can probably find some examples.

The reactionaries might say that the decline of fighting is indicative of the downfall of the masculine western man. 

>standardization and interoperability (e.g. email, the Web

Unfortunately, we're seeing some unwinding of this, as the dominance of gmail makes it impractical to self host (because they refuse to deliver your mail), and with the rise of apps rather than web pages. 

What, lockdown? Absolutely not. Sticking around in Berkeley? I don't know, probably

These posts are so very wholesome and I enjoy them thoroughly. 

The markets are in moderately fake money, but Manifold dollars do represent charitable contributions


They can also be redeemed for high quality shirts! 

Also some users are willing to trade real money for Manifold money. 

Backup citizenship! There were some posts about it here I think. 

Plenty more examples. Toiletries for an overnight bag, for one. 

Benjamin Ikuta, crazy to see you here hah
1Simon Berens1y
Yeah, this isn't something I have an ugh field around, but having portable versions of travel stuff like shampoo, skincare, and chargers ready to go is nice.

It makes sense that Ukrainian bond yields went up after the invasion, but why did they go up and down more recently? 

I wish I knew! Nobody has yet explained it to me, nor do I have any theories I am particularly confident in.

I joined the Optimized Dating discord server and got better photos. 

The most important thing I learned is that if you find yourself in an emergency situation, it is better to do almost anything rather than nothing. Again, if someone stops breathing for any reason, they have only minutes to live. They are dead by default, unless someone intervenes. There is very little you can do to them that is worse than cutting off their oxygen.

In fact, it is probably better to attempt CPR or the Heimlich maneuver than to do nothing, even if you have never been trained and are only guessing, or mimicking what you have seen on television.


Unfortunately the legal system doesn't reflect this. 

Unfortunately the legal system doesn't reflect this. 

This claim seemed worth checking, especially since there are multiple legal systems and it would be awful to discourage people from saving lives in one jurisdiction based on the flaws of another, so I looked into it briefly.

From my quick investigation, I think that being sued for providing medical assistance is not a serious concern in the USA, Canada, and the UK (and probably not in most other places but I didn't read much about other places)[1]. Laws protecting rescuers from lawsuits exist in many... (read more)

Does anyone have a link to the LessWrong slack? 

How can you tell he's sad? 

Typically board members are elected by shareholders, and an attacker can win a proxy fight with a relatively small portion of the shares if he can convince other shareholders. 

Aren't CEOs mostly Republicans? And what's stopping the shareholders from insisting on prioritizing profit?

I'm thinking of tech companies that tend to be based in the SF Bay Area, and the most prominent entertainment companies are Hollywood—both of which are known for being more lefty.  Also, CEOs are one thing, but other executives matter too; and writers and directors especially in entertainment. Regarding shareholders, I don't really know how that works.  I do think it's a general fact that getting a zillion people to coordinate on expressing their wishes is difficult.  There's a board of directors, who I guess nominally represent shareholders?  Looks like every company can have their own rules, though I assume they're mostly similar; looking at Disney's bylaws, it says: Although "Each Director shall at all times represent the interests of the shareholders of the Company", I suspect this is difficult to enforce.  If the board ends up dominated by a woke narrative (with at least a vocal minority of woke people and a majority of people who shut up and go along with it), leading to unprofitable decisions, what can the shareholders do about it, other than sell their stock?  "Shareholder revolts" are a thing, which implies that the divergence between shareholders' desires and what the board is doing can indeed get pretty wide (though also implies that they can eventually get their way). I do suspect that the profit motive will ultimately reassert itself, but it seems to have taken a long time and doesn't show major signs of happening yet.  It may take an "everyone knows that everyone knows that the woke decisions have gotten really bad" moment, which the woke narrative promoted by most media is probably delaying.

This wasn't a super popular post or anything, but it stuck out in my memory for some reason. I think it gets at something fundamental and meaningful, but hard to describe. I found myself returning to this recently, after noticing myself matching with nerdy girls even though no aspect of my profile or swiping would so filter. 

Cool cake demonstration. I think I would vote for pushing the button. Eating cake is fun, but destroying cake is also fun while being much healthier. I suppose if we're doing the whole democracy thing, we could even let the no voters eat some before we destroy it. 

If someone had pressed the button, I would simply have opened the box and slid the cake into the bin, as pretty much the least-fun way I could think of to destroy it. Some people suggested cool ways of destroying it but I didn't want anyone going away from it thinking "well, we didn't get cake, but that was pretty metal". I said this during questions after the talk, so hopefully people also wouldn't expect to be going away from it thinking that. Until I locked up the button, we weren't doing the democracy thing. If someone had pressed it then no one would have eaten cake. But if people had collectively decided to not-press the button, let some people eat cake, and then destroy the remainder, I wouldn't have tried to stop that.

ARMs make sense in theory, but I've heard that in practice the embedded interest rate option tends to be underpriced because homeowners don't always exercise when it would benefit them. 

For what it's worth, Gwern says not to worry about it so much.

"(I wouldn’t take ‘health’ too seriously as a criterion. Diet/​nutrition research is one of the worst fields in all medicine. Don’t sacrifice your quality of life now for some small late-late QALYs which may not exist at all.)"

Not necessarily profiles, but intuitively I would expect a man's choice of words to form a pretty significant portion of how he's perceived by women. Surely you would agree that what happens during texting is nontrivial, right? 

Yes, but a facility with words as indicated by a long form dating profile is likely to be perceived as unattractive by women, who are more interested in signs of social dominance as manifested in real life interactions. A man who has time to spend on crafting an elaborate long form dating profile is seen as being socially isolated and introverted. 

How do you know that long form profiles suggest weakness? 

Talk (or online writing) is dirt cheap. Women are programmed by evolution to value pre-literate (and maybe even pre-linguistic) evidence of fitness that only a minority of males can provide. Not that men are any more advanced in their preferences of course, though we are willing to consider from a far larger percentage of the dating pool. 

It's not about being "correct". It's just that if it's really wide, it might not even be worth it.

Is there a good way to buy calls without paying too much spread?

Define "too much"? The spread is whatever another entity is willing to accept to trade with you and, almost by definition, it is exactly the correct amount.
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