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The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom

if you don't ever -- or indeed often -- find yourself needing to zig when, not only other people, but all kinds of internal "voices" in your mind are loudly shouting for you to zag, then you're either a native rationalist...

Shouldn't this start with "if you frequently..." ?

Decision theory: Why Pearl helps reduce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives

Can anyone explain why Goodman considers this statement to be true:

Hence `If that piece of butter had been heated to 150°F, it would not have melted.' would also hold.

3saturn13y
"If that piece of butter had been heated to 150°F, it would not have melted" can be read as "that piece of butter has not been heated to 150°F, or it did not melt, or both," or "it is not the case that both that piece butter has melted and that piece of butter has been heated to 150°F."
6pengvado13y
Interpreted as truth-functional, "if A then B" is equivalent to "A→B" is equivalent to "~A ∨ B". Which is true whenever A is false, regardless of its relation to B or lack thereof.