All of ChristianKl's Comments + Replies

Why has nuclear power been a flop?

However, this is a highly non-linear process: these centers can correctly repair breaks at a certain rate, but as the break rate increases, the error rate of the repair process goes up drastically. 

This seems like a surprising claim to me. I don't see how "repair at a certain rate" would happen in the underlying biology. On the other hand, I would expect that some error are of a quality that the error detection mechanisms don't catch them. 

Does anybody know more details?

9jasoncrawford19hSo here is the relevant excerpt, section 4.7.1: Figure 4.15: UCB pictures of cell repair. The bright spots in the screenshots are clusters of damage sensing and repair proteins, dubbed Radiation Induced Foci (RIF). Berkeley found that the number of RIF's increases less than linearly with dose. At 0.1 Gy, they observed 73 RIF's/Gy. At 1.0 Gy, they saw 28 RIF's/Gy. If an RIF is faced with a single DSB, the repair is almost always correct. If an RIF is faced with more than one DSB, the error rate skyrockets. We expect 25 to 40 DSB's per gray. Do the math. 40 DSB's and 73 RIF's, no problem. 40 DSB's and 28 RIF's, trouble.Footnote 23 says:
What weird beliefs do you have?

What's your actual credence of it being true? 

1Teerth Aloke7h~1/3
Placebo effect report: chiropractic adjustment

When it comes to popular treatments there are reasons why other people use those treatments. Generally, other people using a treatment is some evidence that it works. If the other people however use the treatment because it produces big effects in short time frames that have nothing to do with health benefits that means them using the treatment is less evidence that it works. 

I do think that in the world we are living there's a sizeable number of approaches in the New Age / alternative medicine category that share "surprising short term effect" + "doe... (read more)

The secret of Wikipedia's success

I don't think that key facts are often sourced via Wikipedia. On the other hand many facts that you find in an newspaper article aren't the key facts. 

The secret of Wikipedia's success

We also see few such attacks on some sources which The Powers That Be do trust, notably journal articles (though such attacks don't never happen).

I think we see plenty examples where corportation hire experts to write papers that come to conclusions that are in their interest. 

When it comes to the link it's worth noting that the only reason the papers in those cases where detected as being fake was because they did stupid mistakes like copying images. Given that's where the threshold lies, more sophisticated misconduct is likely to often say undetected. All the while replication rates are low.

Placebo effect report: chiropractic adjustment

From the Bayesian perspective you have a model of the world according to which different treatments have different likelihoods of having effects. Then you pay attention to reality and if reality doesn't behave in the way your model predicts your model has to be updated. That's the core of what epistemic rationality is about, being ready to update when your beliefs don't pay rent. 

If you want to go for the maximum of epistemic rationality, write down your credence for the effects of a given treatment down and then check afterwards how good your predict... (read more)

1supposedlyfun16hI took an LW break for a few days and read the abstract of that Cochrane review. I'm going to go paragraph by paragraph in responding, which sometimes looks aggressive on the Internet but is just me crux-hunting. Agreed. Agreed. I would do this now in advance of another treatment I suspected was woo. "Laughing deliriously" is not a result I would have expected from getting my leg tugged on exactly once, but I understand you (above) to be claiming that the unexpected result is evidence that it was not merely a placebo. I'm not a physiologist, but I can't even begin to think of a reason for leg-tug->delirious-laugh other than "placebo." This is my understanding as well, and it acts as a global "less likely" coefficient any time I hear any claim made by the alternative medicine community. The DO made no claims about what caused the pelvic misalignment (although she speculated that it was because I drive a manual transmission!), only that pelvic misalignment was the cause of the pain. Yes, and grossly/radiographically visible pelvic misalignment is a thing that happens due to legs of different lengths, but you are being too charitable. This DO did not say my legs were different lengths or that the misalignment was grossly visible, and in fact, she claimed that many such misalignments were invisible to x-ray. In which case I think a "doctor" or practitioner of any stripe has an obligation to dig deeper for an actual root cause. Who stops at, "Very gently tugging on this guy's leg once a month provides some relief for his back pain that was bad enough that he went to the ER"? I'm not prepared to excuse that level of incuriousness; it causes me to down-update my trust in everything the practitioner says. I completely disagree. I would expect what you're calling subjective trained expert perception to be constantly subject to all of the following cognitive biases (reading the Wikipedia list [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases]) and others I haven
2Slider2d>If you were previously skeptical that the treatment did anything, you shouldn't take the fact that your shit now has a surprising form that you didn't expect as evidence that the treatment provides the medical benefits it's claimed. Isn't this conditional on why you think it would not help? If you believe that is does nothign and therefore doesn't work then it doing a weird thing should make one less sure of any claims which on the balance ignorant 50:50 would be nearer to it working thhan a strong stand against. Yes it is good to focus on does the weird thing help or hinder but surprise about the mechanism is still surprise.
Open and Welcome Thread - April 2021

I'd be curious whether you found any applications for phenomenological methodologies in the area of medical research/clinical practice. 

Placebo effect report: chiropractic adjustment

There is no evidence that chiropractic adjustments are any better than a placebo at relieving back pain 

Your link doesn't go to the page about chiropratic interventions in general which is https://www.cochrane.org/CD005427/BACK_combined-chiropractic-interventions-for-low-back-pain and which does suggest that there's a small effect which just isn't stronger then mainstream treatments. 

It wasn't a true aspiring-rationality a-ha moment for me at the time, but it should have been.  (I think this was before I encountered HPMOR.)  The human b

... (read more)
1supposedlyfun2dThis is a sensible response, probably the ideally correct one, and I appreciate it. My counter question is: as a limited agent, at what point, if ever, am I justified in writing off (that is, assuming it was a placebo) a treatment with no plausible mechanism of action? I've done mainstream treatments for this spasm as well, without the zany effect, and without the equivalent reduction in magnitude.
The secret of Wikipedia's success

I don't buy that the power that be don't want to manipulate Wikipedia because it's believed to be unreliable. In many cases newspaper journalists these days believe Wikipedia to be reliable enough to use it as a source for some claims with gives you citogenesis. Books like Trust me I'm lying speak more in detail about how you can do the citogenesis dance as a PR person. 

Wikipedia does deal with a huge amount of vandalism but succeeds in holding it at bay well enough to have the quality it has.

7aaronb502dIt’s not that individual journalists don’t trust Wikipedia, but that they know they can’t publish an article in which a key fact comes directly from Wikipedia without any sort of corroboration. I assume, anyway. Perhaps I’m wrong.
A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]

Germany is currently governed by a coalition between the major center-left and center-right party if you want to use the traditional terms. That's something different then one of two parties right or left from center.

The head of government in the German system also has a lot less power then a US president.

New parties are able to enter parliament and as long as they have >5% and gets seats nobody sees those votes as wasted.

Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world

In the normal state the human body has ten times as much bacteria cells and a bunch of phages that attack those bacteria. 

Bacteria phages don't infect human cells, which many part of the immune system do care about. Whether the immune system will start attacking some phages depends a lot on the context.

In many cases when fighting an infection you have the problem that the host immune system doesn't effectively work. 

In periodontitis for example periodontopathogens like Porphyromonas gingivalis, synergistically disarm host defence systems as a rec... (read more)

1BossSleepy4dThat's really cool. Thanks for the pointer!
Modified bases in mRNA vaccines against Covid-19

One of the papers I read through spoke about it that way. https://biology.stackexchange.com/questions/97619/does-n1-methyl-pseudouridine-occur-naturally-in-any-rna is also interesting in saying that tRNAs of most archaea contains it.

Modified bases in mRNA vaccines against Covid-19

Googling "1-methyl 3'-pseudouridine" brings up 14 hits not all actually containing the term and some on facebook. I think this refers to N1-methylpseudouridine.

From a EU report on Moderna's vaccine:

The RNA contains modified N1-methylpseudouridine instead of uridine to minimise the indiscriminate recognition of the mRNA by pathogen-associated molecular pattern receptors (e.g. TLRs

There's a paper that also suggests that's in Pfizers vaccine.

Googling it + FDA doesn't show any discussion that you would likely see if it's the reason that the FDA rejected other ... (read more)

1BB64dWhere do you see it naturally occurs in mammals ?
lsusr's Shortform

I do mind, after having spent several minutes annotating images of self-driving cards

I think it's worst when you have edge cases like the Google Captcha that shows 16 tiles and you have to choose which tiles contain the item they are looking for and some of the tails contain it only a little bit on the edge. 

People Will Listen

Karma, the amount of people reached by a post and the impact it has on people correlate with each other but neither determines the others. 

People Will Listen

What is your advice now?

How about looking at the posts that he writes? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets and https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybQdaN3RGvC685DZX/the-emh-is-false-specific-strong-evidence are posts that advocate concrete trades. 

Looking at the other posts it seems he shares some other advice at some EA groups. 

Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

Why do you believe it isn't a combination of both?

3CellBioGuy2dThe molecular details are not of a type that is caused by the pill.
A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]

Having extreme political opinion is unfortunately correlated with being politically engaged. A majority of the people who don't have extreme opinions aren't engaged enough for a project like this. Even in the general population a majority doesn't vote in primaries. 

I would expect that it makes more sense to focus on voting reform in individual states then to build up such a pesudo party.

-3abramdemski4dI think voting reform is highly implausible, because "voting reform" has come to mean instant runoff voting, which is barely better (and probably much worse for political polarization in particular, due to the center-squeeze problem). Not to say that "a new center" is really plausible, though ;p
Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand

I'm not talking about sterilization of the human body but sterilization of the hospital enviroment. It leads to selection effects for bacteria that are adapted to the hospital enviroment. 

If you have plants in a room then part of the room is filled with bacteria that interact with plants and that creates a more diverse microbial enviroment. Having plants in a room makes it more likely that a random bacteria in the room is a plant pathogen compared to a human pathogen. 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2014.00491/full#B7 is a pape... (read more)

A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]

Contra the idea that the internet is to blame, polarization seems historically to be the "natural" state in both the USA and elsewhere. To get less of it you need specific mechanism that have a moderating effect

The US got steadily more polarized along political lines over the last decades by metrics such as how important it is for people that their spouse shares their party affiliation while getting less polarized along race by those metrics. 

Matt Talibbi's Hate Inc is a book that describes the process over the last decades well. 

A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]

It seems to me that a winner-take-all election for an immensely powerful head of the executive branch of the government necessarily creates a two-party system (or something similar to a two-party system, as has happened in Germany), even if you ignore all other issues.

Germany has neither a winner-take-all election nor a two-party system.

3MikkW3dGermany does have a winner-take-all mechanism for the executive branch; the parliament is appointed proportionately, but the chancellor is the singular head of government, and is appointed by the Bundestag in a way that, in extreme cases where consensus cannot be reached, regresses to plurality voting (FPTP). I'm not familiar with the German situation, but in Denmark (whose system served as a model for the German system), while there are multiple parties, there is still a two-bloc system, where each party either aligns with the red bloc (supporting the Social Democrats / Socialdemokraterne) or the blue bloc (led by the Winstar party / Venstre), with the prime minister always coming from one of the two major parties. I presume the situation in Germany isn't so different, and that this is what Lucas2000 is referring to by "something similar to a two-party system".
Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

Given the numbers COVID-19 vaccines are less effective against asymptomatic infections then they are against symptomatic infections. We also see them to be more effective against hospitalization then against symptomatic infections.

Given that death is at the tail, they are likely more protective against death then asymptomatic or symptomatic infections.

The effect they have on long Covid is less clear. Long Covid won't kill you immediately but can plausibly cost you a few years of lifespan.

Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

Young women have significant risk of blood clots because the pill has significant risk of blood clots and they are the demographic for the pill.

The fact that we see the cases in that group suggests that it's not about "certain age groups" but taking the pill. 

Speaking about "certain age groups" might be the result of too much political correctness getting in the way.

3CellBioGuy4dThese blood clots are unusual and triggered by immune-mediated platelet activation, and happening at higher rate than the base population in those subpopulations. It's real and not the pill. It's also lower than the risk of the pill.
1tkpwaeub4dThat's why I got a vasectomy
Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand

In order for antibiotic resistance to be relevant, you have to get infected in the first place, and if hospitals were consistent about sterilization then they wouldn't have infection rates any higher than any other buildings.

It's the sterilization that creates the niche in which those bacteria thrive because they face less competition then they would face in other normal buildings which are populated by diverse bacteria. No matter how much you sterilize you are not going to go to zero bacteria in a space occupied by humans and when human are a primary vector of moving bacteria around in the space you select for bacteria's that actually interact with humans. 

3Jakob_J5dWhere is the selection effect coming from? You'd think that the human body is large enough to host a range of different bacteria, so unless they have some way of competing within the body, sterilization would just remove some bacterial populations rather than select for those resistant to antibiotics.
Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection

To be fair, they didn't know which doses where contaminated at the time and there was no test to determine which doses were contaminated. 

Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand

I unfortunately know very little about building bridges, so I can't really tell how a new paradigm might improve the status quo. It might be possible to switch the composition of a bridge in a way where it can be created in a more automated fashion then it's currently created. 

When it comes to actually preventing infections I do think there's room for a new paradigm that replaces "let's kill all bacteria" with "let's see that we have an ecosystem of bacteria without those that are problematic". 

Moving to that new paradigm for infections has similar problems to improving on cancer treatment and prevention.

Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand

Some things we basically understand: building bridges and skyscrapers, treating and preventing infections, satellites and GPS, cars and ships, oil wells and gas pipelines and power plants, cell networks and databases and websites. 

If we understand basically understand building bridges, then why are we building so few new bridges and those that we build end up being so expensive? The fact that building bridges with the advanced technology we have today isn't cheaper but more expensive then building bridges 100 years ago suggests to me that we don't und... (read more)

5MikeMitchell6dYour last sentence is true and important. I think John's focusing on a different problem. One could use "general" skills to turn existing paradigms, though for a student that will be hard. Actually building bridges and Actually preventing infections requires not only improvements in applied science, but also human coordination. In the former we've improved, in the latter we've stagnated.
Sometimes, it can take a while to notice confusion

Elevators that don't have a way to ventilate themselves might be very risky. A few days ago I was thinking. Well isn't it smelly in here. Sometimes it smells like someone smoked. It's possible that the exhald coronavirus stays a while in the air in the elevator. 

I think reading this I update towards using them less reading this. 

Learning Russian Roulette

You don't need to add other hypothesis to know that there might be unknown additional hypothesis. 

Highlights from The Autobiography of Andrew Carnegie

If Adams Express paid $10 a month on $500 of stock, that’s a 24% annual dividend yield, which is far better than any similar investment today, and presumably this easily covered the payments on the loan. 

When I read the tales of crypto-markets on LessWrong, there are also people who speak similarly about yield. There's risk but the same might be true with the stocks back in the day.

Vim

Similarly, if you have to hit w more than a few times, you're probably doing something wrong. 

Do you mean that for both doing "4w" and "wwww"?

2gilch8dYes? I mean, other vimmers might feel differently, but I basically don't use counts like that. Counting to move the cursor is too much effort, especially if you're counting higher than 2-3. It's not worth the time it takes. ww is the same number of keystrokes as 2w. I might use the latter if I needed a single motion operator to repeat later with ., like c2w, but ww or even www would be easier most of the time. Past that, we're getting to the 4-5 keystrokes where / is better, and you can probably do it in two to three keystrokes with f -something (;) as easily as www. So rather than counting how many words to get from here to there to find the right number to enter before the w, I'm just looking at the there and hit f, plus whatever character I'm looking at getting to, or a less common one adjacent to it. If the cursor doesn't quite get there, you can ; a few times. If you overshoot, use , to reverse.
Is there any plausible mechanisms for why taking an mRNA vaccine might be undesirable for a young healthy adult?

Antibody buildup against polyethylene glycol or PEG. One issue of concern was voiced in The Importance of Poly(ethylene glycol) Alternativesfor Overcoming PEG Immunogenicity in DrugDelivery and Bioconjugation:

The administration of PEGylated drugs can lead to the production of anti-PEG antibodies(anti-PEG immunoglobulin M (IgM)) and immune response (Figure 1) [30]. Due to these phenomena,the PEG-conjugation of drugs/NPs often only provides a biological advantage during the first dose of a treatment course. By the second dose, the PEGylated agents have been

... (read more)
Vim

Let's think about an example. I want to move my cursor. 

I might be in a situation when 3W, lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll, / with something else $b are all valid moves to get at my target location for the cursor. 

This has probably something like 3-5 seconds latency because I not only have to think about where my cursor should go about also about the way to get there. 

On the other hand without VIM, having a proper keyboard that makes arrow keys easy to reach I might have a latency of maybe 700 milliseconds. 

VIM frequently costs mental processing capacity because I have to model my code in my head in concepts like words (for w and b) that I wouldn't otherwise. 

2gilch8dThe choices become much more obvious with experience. Waiting 3-5 seconds is completely unrealistic once you know what you are doing. I'd fall back to using the mouse well before 3 seconds, unless I'm in a remote terminal or something that doesn't support it, in which case I'd use / / ? and n. You could theoretically target any character in the file using only Space to advance the cursor and gg to go back to the start (well, depending on your settings). But nobody even thinks to do it this way (because it's stupid), so it doesn't seem to drain any mental resources not thinking about it. Similarly, experienced vimmers don't use hjkl very much. lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll is just not something that occurs to you when you think of (and act on) better options first. If you have to use an arrow key more than a few times in a row, you're doing something wrong. (I mean, sometimes I use js to scroll down as I'm reading, but I'm not going for speed in that case.) By the time you get to about 4-5 keystrokes, you're better off searching with / / ?. Similarly, if you have to hit w more than a few times, you're probably doing something wrong. It's usually not something that even occurs to me. I mostly jump around within a line by using f/F and ;/,. It's faster than going by word with w or by character with h/l. One still has to pick a character or two to target, and for longer jumps, one learns to avoid common characters like vowels, and learn to prefer rarer characters like punctuation. This is just a fast heuristic, I'm not mentally counting character statistics for my current line.
8SatvikBeri8dIf you're using non-modal editing, in that example you could press Alt+rightarrow three times, use cmd+f, the end key (and back one word), or cmd+righarrow (and back one word). That's not even counting shortcuts specific to another IDE or editor. Why, in your mental model, does the non-modal version feel like fewer choices? I suspect it's just familiarity – you've settled on some options you use the most, rather than trying to calculate the optimum fewest keystrokes each time. Have you ever seen an experienced vim user? 3-5 seconds latency is completely unrealistic. It sounds to me like you're describing the experience of being someone who's a beginner at vim and spent half their life into non-modal editing, and in that case, of course you're going to be much faster with the second. And to be fair, vim is extremely beginner-unfriendly in ways that are bad and could be fixed without harming experts – kakoune(https://kakoune.org/ [https://kakoune.org/]) is similar but vastly better designed for learning. As a side note, this is my last post in this conversation. I feel like we have mostly been repeating the same points and going nowhere.
Learning Russian Roulette

Consider two hypothesis: A says that everyone has a 1/6 chance of dying. B says that everyone else has a 1/6 chance of dying, but I survive for sure. 

There's no reason to only consider those two hypothesis. 

If I would trust my memory, which I likely wouldn't given the stakes my available data only suggest that there's something that's in common with my trials that's not the case for the average person. 

It could be that I did all my previous tries at a specific outside temperature and at that temperature prevents the bullet from getting fired... (read more)

1Bunthut8dAdding other hypothesis doesn't fix the problem. For every hypothesis you can think of, theres a version of it that says "but I survive for sure" tacked on. This hypothesis can never lose evidence relative to the base version, but it can gain evidence anthropically. Eventually, these will get you. Yes, theres all sorts of considerations that are more relevant in a realistic scenario, thats not the point.
Air Quality and Cognition

When it comes to buying air purifiers it's worth noting that noise pollution likely also negatively affects cognition, so you likely not only want to optimize for performance of clearing the air but for low noise as well.

Is there any plausible mechanisms for why taking an mRNA vaccine might be undesirable for a young healthy adult?

The main concern I had was that it leads to a development of polyethylene glycol resistence. After talking this through with a doctor, I now believe that 1-2 doses of the vaccine are unlikely to have a significant effect but still some that giving significantly more doses (for example 2 every year to target changing viruses) could lead to such an effect. 

I already fully isolate, and would only value my freedom a bit, whereas I value my health a lot.

Human contact is very important for human health. The idea that you can fully isolate without paying a price for it in health seems questionable to me. Humans are not constructed to live healthy lifes in isolation from other humans.

3Mati_Roy7dwell, I should unpack "fully isolate" (I meant fully isolate from the virus): * I isolate with another human * I video-chat with multiple humans * I chat in person with other humans outside with 3 meters distance or insider with a full-face mask :)
3Phoenix Eliot8dWhat is polyethylene glycol resistance? Google isn't turning much up. Or do you mean sensitivity / allergy?
Preventing overcharging by prosecutors

That's true, but I think you're being very optimistic, both in the ability of defendants and defense council to ignore or evaluate information the other side in an adversarial system claims is their true opinion

At would expect that in the beginning after the reform defendants and defense council would not trust the probability at all. 

I would expect that trust in the numbers will only come when the system works well that they provide valid information.

I think both are possible, and would be very valuable, but can't be achieved without much deeper

... (read more)
1AnthonyC9dOn those points I completely agree.
Vim

The issue is not just more choices but more choices to achieve the same result. In programming languages Python achieved a large user-base through being easy to use with it's core principles like "there should be one obvious way to do things". 

I have 5 open on my laptop right now, and it's not because I want to! Vim provides a unified set of key bindings among practically every editor, which normally have very different ways of doing things.

The problem is that it's not dependable when you can use the Vim shortcuts within user editors. If I use IdeaVim... (read more)

Vim

Is it faster to look at the keyboard and type with one finger, or touch-type with all ten? 

Touch typing doesn't increase the amount of choices if you do it properly. If you learn touch typing properly there's a single finger that's responsible for a single key.

As your vocabulary has grown, has your speech slowed down? 

That's a bad comparison because as my vocabulary grew I also get better got speaking. 

In cross language comparisons more choices, do slow down speakers. Speakers of a language with fewer phomenes are faster at speaking a single phoneme then speakers of a language with more different phonemes. 

Vim

For any given thing you want to do imagine what it would take to do it without Vim 

This reminds me of the person with whom I was arguing about what takes how long on Anki and who was saying that his own judgement of what takes how long is superior to the Anki statistics where I know how the code works and which actually measures the time correctly. 

Human imagination is not good at estimating what tasks have how much latency.

Vim

This really isn't my experience. Once you've practiced something enough that it becomes a habit, the latency is significantly lower. 

How much experience do you have with measuring the latency of things to know what takes 400ms and what takes 700ms?

Anecdotally, I've pretty consistently seen people who're used to vim accomplish text editing tasks much faster than people who aren't, unless the latter is an expert in keyboard shortcuts of another editor such as emacs.

Even if total time for the task is reduced the latency for starting the task might still be higher.

Vim

My recollection is that in studies of how humans respond to feedback, there are large differences between even relatively short periods of latency. 

I would expect using VIM to increase latency. While you are going to press fewer keys you are likely going to take slightly longer to press the keys as using any key is more complex. 

I can point to dozens of little things that are easier with vim, conversely, nothing is harder because you can always just drop into insert mode.

There's the paradox of choice and having more choices to accomplish a task c... (read more)

7gilch9dAs your vocabulary has grown, has your speech slowed down? Is it faster to look at the keyboard and type with one finger, or touch-type with all ten? Have you ever played fighting video games? Is someone who knows more moves at a disadvantage? It might depend on how much they've practiced them! More conscious choices slow me down, it's true, but once it's ingrained at the level of habit, you can do it almost as fast as you can think it, just like speaking or typing or playing a fighting game. Learning to do it in the first place is slower, but like learning to touch-type, try to get it right before you try to get it fast. When I touch-type words, I don't think in terms of individual letters. I don't move that way either. There are clusters of keystrokes that happen frequently in English text. My other fingers have already started moving to the next letters before I've finished pressing the first one. Vim's motion commands end up feeling the same way. It's just like typing words. New vimmer: I need to swap a line with the next one. I should cut it and paste it after. What was the command for that again? D? Uh. Visual mode! hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhv. Um. k? no. j. l. $. d. Down? j. p! What? Uh, undo! u! Up? k! p! Why isn't this working? u! $! i! Enter. Aw screw it! Backspace! Right-arrow, Enter, p! Backspace! Escape, p! Phew! Intermediate vimmer: I could select the whole line with V and cut with d or do a cut-motion with ^D. 0D is a little easier to reach than ^D though. Or dd. The dd is easiest. Am I still in insert mode? Escape, Escape. dd! Down? Oh, already there. Paste-below with p. p! Done. Experience vimmer: swap-linesddpdone. I'm not even thinking in terms of select-copy-paste steps here. ddp is a muscle macro in its own right, just like a common word or a practiced fighting-game move.
6SatvikBeri10dThis really isn't my experience. Once you've practiced something enough that it becomes a habit, the latency is significantly lower. Anecdotally, I've pretty consistently seen people who're used to vim accomplish text editing tasks much faster than people who aren't, unless the latter is an expert in keyboard shortcuts of another editor such as emacs. You want simple interfaces for beginners. Interfaces popular among professionals tend to be pretty complex, see e.g. Bloomberg Terminal or Photoshop or even Microsoft Excel.
Don't Sell Your Soul

A lot of ways to extract profit from having brought the souls involve some form of blackmail that's both unethical and a lot of labor. 

There are a lot more ethical ways to make a living that also pay better for the labor. 

Don't Sell Your Soul

most Christians believe that souls exist on a different metaphysical plane than your brain or an EM

Even if that's true, do you think that the EM has a link to the same metaphysical human who was uploaded or does the soul that was linked to the human is not linked in any way to the EM?

1joshuatanderson10dThat's a great question, ChristianKI. I have no idea if a soul-human link would transfer to an uploaded consciousness. The thought experiment of the Ship of Theseus definitely intrigues me, and I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. I wouldn't expect to find any sort of material link to a soul, so I actually wouldn't know how to test for it even if I had an EM in the room with me right now. I will also add that I don't think a belief in a soul, given that it (as far as I know) has only anecdotal evidence, and doesn't fit into the scientific method, isn't self-supporting, and I wouldn't hold it if it didn't have borrowed strength from other theistic beliefs. Does that add any clarity?
What will GPT-4 be incapable of?

It takes a human hundreds of hours to get to that level of play strength. Unless part of building GPT-4 involves letting it play various games against itself for practice I would be very surprised if GPT-4 could even beat an average Go bot (let's say one who plays at 5 kyu on KGS to be more specific) 50% of the time.

I would put the confidence for that at something like 95% and most of the remaining percent is about OpenAI doing weird things to make GPT-4 specifically good for the task. 

1Michaël Trazzi10dsorry I meant a bot that played random move, not a randomly sampled go bot from KGS. agreed with GPT-4 not beating average go bot
Vim

But after that I persisted and now it’s actually faster. 

How do you know?

2Alexei10dFor any given thing you want to do imagine what it would take to do it without Vim and it’s just more & usually more awkward key strokes. I’d say the only place where I still use mouse is to jump to a completely random place in code.
If my previous research is wrong, what are my options ?

A lot of research is wrong for one reason or another. If a scientist finds out that a paper of someone wrote contains errors the usual process is to write a new paper. Science progresses through new papers and everyone accepts that old papers often contain errors and are overtaken by new research.

The only thing that might be research misconduct is to to forge your research results by not changing the data you publish. Given how hard it is to persue people for massive fraud it's however unlikely that anybody will argue in present day academia that leaving o... (read more)

Vim

Why do you believe that you are actually faster with Vim? I used Vim quite a while a bit and it usually still requires thinking to use it. I haven't seen any evidence that Vim actually makes programs faster that goes beyond programmers feeling faster. Do you have evidence for that, either through measuring your own performance or through another source?

5SatvikBeri9dSo, one of the arguments you've made at several points is that we should expect Vim to be slower because it has more choices. This seems incorrect to me, even a simple editor like Sublime Text has about a thousand keyboard shortcuts, which are mostly ad-hoc and need to be memorized separately. In contrast Vim has a small, (mostly) composable language. I just counted lsusr's post, and it has fewer than 30 distinct components – most of the text is showing different ways to combine them. The other thing to consider is that most programmers will use at least a dozen editors/IDEs in their careers. I have 5 open on my laptop right now, and it's not because I want to! Vim provides a unified set of key bindings among practically every editor, which normally have very different ways of doing things. So that's on the order of a 10x-100x order of magnitude reduction in vocabulary size, which should at least make you consider the idea that Vim has lower latency.
4glagidse9dFor me, Vim isn't about speed, it's about staying focused. If I have to move my hand between the keyboard and the mouse every time I want to move the cursor, I lose a little bit of focus. Vim solves this issue by not having to move the placement of your hands. Of course a pointing stick also solves most of these issues.
8John_Maxwell10dAfter practicing Vim for a few months, I timed myself doing the Vim tutorial (vimtutor on the command line) using both Vim with the commands recommended in the tutorial, and a click-and-type editor. The click-and-type editor was significantly faster. Nowadays I just use Vim for the macros, if I want to do a particular operation repeatedly on a file. I think if you get in the habit of double-clicking to select words and triple-clicking to select lines (triple-click and drag to select blocks of code), click-and-type editors can be pretty fast.
4SatvikBeri10dAs far as I know there's almost no measurement of productivity of developer tools. Without data, I think there are two main categories in which editor features, including keyboard shortcuts, can make you more productive: 1. By making difficult tasks medium to easy 2. By making ~10s tasks take ~1s An example of the first would be automatically syncing your code to a remote development instance. An example of the first would be adding a comma to the end of several lines at once using a macro. IDEs tend to focus on 1, text editors tend to focus on 2. In general, I think it's very likely that the first case makes you more productive. What about the second? My recollection is that in studies of how humans respond to feedback, there are large differences between even relatively short periods of latency. Something like vim gives you hundreds of these (learning another editor's keyboard shortcuts very well probably does too.) I can point to dozens of little things that are easier with vim, conversely, nothing is harder because you can always just drop into insert mode. I agree that this isn't nearly as convincing as actual studies would be, but constructing a reasonable study on this seems pretty difficult.
2Alexei10dI think about ~1year into using vim, I thought the same thing: I’m doing the same thing, just with more quicker steps, so it feels faster. But after that I persisted and now it’s actually faster. Part of it is expanding your repertoire and memorizing it (where you don’t have to think about it at all). Also vim editor by itself I still find very clunky, but using vim shortcuts in something like PyCharm is $$$!
5gilch10dI've done pair programming with devs who don't know vim, and remember on multiple occasions watching the other dev try to make an edit while thinking that I'd be done by now if I was the one typing. Most of the time, what I do with vim is at the level of habit and "muscle memory". I don't have to think about it. If I'm programming a macro or writing a regex, sure, I have to think. But the motion commands just happen now.
Preventing overcharging by prosecutors

In Germany where I live a prosecutor has a legal obligation for prosecuting cases of crimes if he believes the defendent is guilty. A prosecutor is not allowed to say "Well this law is stupid so I won't prosecute people for breaking it" while in the US that's within the rights of a prosecutor. This right allows for plea deals to happen in the US.

If you change this basic part about what the mandate of the prosecutor happens to be, you will suddenly get a lot of very bad laws enforced that currently aren't enforced. If laws against oral sex in some states su... (read more)

Preventing overcharging by prosecutors

Overall I'm very skeptical that the enforcement mechanism you proposed to incentivize prosecutors to be honest is anywhere near strong enough.

The incentive it's as strong as the desire for people who evaluate the prosecutors want it to be. You can also make it stronger by linking it to bonus payments if you want. If you do pay prosecutors any bonuses it would make sense to do that, but I think it's generally better to pay prosecutors a fixed salary. 

In any case, even if many prosecutors give crapy numbers those numbers can just be ignored by the defen... (read more)

1AnthonyC9dThat's true, but I think you're being very optimistic, both in the ability of defendants and defense council to ignore or evaluate information the other side in an adversarial system claims is their true opinion, and in the ability and interest of the public in properly evaluating the job performance of prosecutors in local elections based on actual data. I think both are possible, and would be very valuable, but can't be achieved without much deeper and broader reforms to make the underlying justice system more open, transparent, and trustworthy. Sorry, I didn't mean a trial as an experiment, I meant literally running legal trials this way, where in general the prosecutor that tries a case is not the one that produces the conviction probability estimate. Then, grade each both on the accuracy of their assessments, and separately on their conviction rates in trials they prosecute. I'd say either the one trying the case or a separate third prosecutor should have final say on which charges to bring. I think this would eliminate a lot of the potential for perverse incentives.
Load More