I would guess a lot of us picked the term up from Donald Norman's The Design of Everyday Things.
The image of this tweet isn't present here, only on Substack.
True; in addition, places vary a lot in their freak-tolerance.
If I lived in Wyoming and wanted to go to a fetish event, I guess I'm driving to maybe Denver, around 3h40 away? I know this isn't a consideration for everyone but it's important to me.
The same is basically true for any niche interest - it will only be fulfilled where there's adequate population to justify it. In my case, particular jazz music.
Probably a lot of people have different niche interests like that, even if they can't agree on one.
Why the 6in fan rather than the 8in one? Would seem to move a lot more air for nearly the same price.
Reminiscent of Freeman Dyson's 2005 answer to the question: "what do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it?":
Since I am a mathematician, I give a precise answer to this question. Thanks to Kurt Gödel, we know that there are true mathematical statements that cannot be proved. But I want a little more than this. I want a statement that is true, unprovable, and simple enough to be understood by people who are not mathematicians. Here it is.
Numbers that are exact powers of two are 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 and so on. Numbers th
You're not able to directly edit it yourself?
On Twitter I linked to this saying
Basic skills of decision making under uncertainty have been sorely lacking in this crisis. Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute is building up its Epidemic Forecasting project, and needs a project manager.
I'm honestly struggling with a polite response to this. Here in the UK, Dominic Cummings has tried a Less Wrong approach to policy making, and our death rate is terrible. This idea that a solution will somehow spring from left-field maverick thinking is actually lethal.
For the foreseeable future, it seems that anything I might try to say to my UK friends about anything to do with LW-style thinking is going to be met with "but Dominic Cummings". Three separate instances of this in just the last few days.
Can you give some examples of "LW-style thinking" that they now associate with Cummings?
I look back and say "I wish he had been right!"
Britain was in the EU, but it kept Pounds Sterling, it never adopted the Euro.
How many opportunities do you think we get to hear someone make clearly falsifiable ten-year predictions, and have them turn out to be false, and then have that person have the honour necessary to say "I was very, very wrong?" Not a lot! So any reflections you have to add on this would I think be super valuable. Thanks!
Hey, looks like you're still active on the site, would be interested to hear your reflections on these predictions ten years on - thanks!
It is, of course, third-party visible that Eliezer-2010 *says* it's going well. Anyone can say that, but not everyone does.
I note that nearly eight years later, the preimage was never revealed.
Actually, I have seen many hashed predictions, and I have never seen a preimage revealed. At this stage, if someone reveals a preimage to demonstrate a successful prediction, I will be about as impressed as if someone wins a lottery, noting the number of losing lottery tickets lying about.
Half formed thoughts towards how I think about this:
Something like Turing completeness is at work, where our intelligence gains the ability to loop in on itself, and build on its former products (eg definitions) to reach new insights. We are at the threshold of the transition to this capability, half god and half beast, so even a small change in the distance we are across that threshold makes a big difference.
As such, if you observe yourself to be in a culture that is able to reach technologically maturity, you're probably "the stupidest such culture that could get there, because if it could be done at a stupider level then it would've happened there first."
Who first observed this? I say this a lot, but I'm now not sure if I first thought of it or if I'm just quoting well-understood folklore.
May I recommend spoiler markup? Just start the line with >!
Another (minor) "Top Donor" opinion. On the MIRI issue: agree with your concerns, but continue donating, for now. I assume they're fully aware of the problem they're presenting to their donors and will address it in some fashion. If they do not might adjust next year. The hard thing is that MIRI still seems most differentiated in approach and talent org that can use funds (vs OpenAI and DeepMind and well-funded academic institutions)
I note that this is now done. As I have for so many things here. Great work team!
Spoiler space test
Rot13's content, hidden using spoiler markup:
Despite having donated to MIRI consistently for many years as a result of their highly non-replaceable and groundbreaking work in the field, I cannot in good faith do so this year given their lack of disclosure. Additionally, they already have a larger budget than any other organisation (except perhaps FHI) and a large amount of reserves.Despite FHI producing very high quality research, GPI having a lot of promising papers in the pipeline, and both having highly qualified and value-aligned researchers, the ... (read more)
I think the Big Rationalist Lesson is "what adjustment to my circumstances am I not making because I Should Be Able To Do Without?"
Just to get things started, here's a proof for #1:
Proof by induction that the number of bicolor edges is odd iff the ends don't match. Base case: a single node has matching ends and an even number (zero) of bicolor edges. Extending with a non-bicolor edge changes neither condition, and extending with a bicolor edge changes both; in both cases the induction hypothesis is preserved.
Here's a more conceptual framing:
If we imagine blue as labelling the odd numbered segments and green as labelling the even numbered segments, it is clear that there must be an even number of segments in total. The number of gaps between segments is equal to the number of segments minus 1, so it is odd.
From what I hear, any plan for improving MIRI/CFAR space that involves the collaboration of the landlord is dead in the water; they just always say no to things, even when it's "we will cover all costs to make this lasting improvement to your building".
Of course I should have tested it before commenting! Thanks for doing so.
Spoiler markup. This post has lots of comments which use ROT13 to disguise their content. There's a Markdown syntax for this.
I note that this is now done.
"If you're running an event that has rules, be explicit about what those rules are, don't just refer to an often-misunderstood idea" seems unarguably a big improvement, no matter what you think of the other changes proposed here.
I notice your words are now larger thanks to the excellence of this comment!
Excellent, my words will finally get the prominence they deserve!
When does voting close? EDIT: "This vote will close on Sunday March 18th at midnight PST."
I thought of a similar example to you for big-low-status, but I couldn't think of an example I was happy with for small-high-status. Every example I could think of was one where someone is visually small, but you already know they're high status. So I was struck when your example also used someone we all know is high status! Is there a pose or way of looking which both looks small and communicates high status, without relying on some obvious marker like a badge or a crown?
Ainslie, not Ainslee. I found this super distracting for some reason, partly because his name is repeated so often.
A plausible strategy would be to buy say 100 bitcoins for $1 each, then sell 10 at $10, 10 at $100, and so on. With this strategy you would have made $111,000 and hold 60 bitcoins.
"Even though gaining too much in pregnancy" is missing the word "weight" I think.
I can't work out where you're going with the Qubes thing. Obviously a secure hypervisor wouldn't imply a secure system, any more than a secure kernel implies a secure system in a non-hypervisor based system.
More deeply, you seem to imply that someone who has made a security error obviously lacks the security mindset. If only the mindset protected us from all errors; sadly it's not so. But I've often been in the situation of trying to explain something security-related to a smart person, and sensing the gap that seemed wider than a mere lack of knowledge.
Please don't bold your whole comment.
Looks like this hasn't been marked as part of the "INADEQUATE EQUILIBRIA" sequence: unlike the others, it doesn't carry this banner, and it isn't listed in the TOC.
I agree, if the USA had decided to take over the world at the end of WWII, it would have taken absolutely cataclysmic losses. I think it would still have ended up on top of what was left, and the world would have rebuilt, with the USA on top. But not being prepared to make such an awful sacrifice to grasp power probably comes under a different heading than "moral norms".
There are many ways to then conclude that AGI is far away where far away means decades out. Not that decades out is all that far away. Eliezer conflating the two should freak you out. AGI reliably forty years away would be quite the fire alarm.
I don't think I understand this point. Is the conflation "having a model of the long-term that builds on a short-term model" and "having any model of the long term", in which case the conflation is akin to expecting climate scientists to predict the weather? If so I agree that that's a s
I move in circles where asking "why is X bad" is as bad as X itself. So for the avoidance of doubt, I do not think that your comment here makes you a bad person.
I'm trying to imagine a conversation where one person expresses a preference about the other's pubic hair that wouldn't be inappropriate, and I'm struggling a little. Here's what I've come up with:
A BDSM context in which that sort of thing is a negotiated part.
The two have been playing for a while and are intimate enough for that to be appropriate.
The other p
Which parts do you think are not needed?
Dawkins's "Middle World" idea seems relevant here. We live in Middle World, but we investigate phenomena across a wide range of scales in space and time. It would at least be a little surprising to discover that the pace at which we do it is special and hard to improve on.
Thank you! Hooray for this sort of thing :)
Also I have already read them all more than once and don't plan to do so again just to get the badge :)
I would like to be able to publicly say eg "hear hear" on a comment or post, without cluttering up the replies. Where the "like" button is absent eg on Livejournal, I sorely miss it. This is nothing to do with voting and should be wholly orthogonal; voting is anonymous and feeds into the ranking algorithm, where this is more like a comment that says very little and takes up minimal screen real estate, but allows people to get a quick feel for who thinks what about a comment.
Starting with "thumbs up" wou
I think these are two wholly orthogonal functions: anonymous voting, and public comment badges. For badges, I'd like to see something much more like eg Discord where you can apply as many as you think apply, rather than Facebook where you can only apply at most one of the six options (eg both "agree" and "don't like tone").
EDIT: now a feature request.
I think publicly applying badges to a comment should be completely orthogonal to anonymously voting on it. EDIT: now a feature request.