For your CDC file:
The CDC lowers a developmental milestone for speech development:
A child must know 50 words by 30 months.
Used to be 24 months.
The gender gap is further compounded by the menstrual irregularities the vaccine is somewhat likely to cause.
Women talk, and that is hardly a very pleasant experience and it appears common enough for many to notice.
People who do not vaccinate now are not making this decision because you point out failures.
They can point out failures themselves and do it too.
And there are some results
The trial is under way
Right, I did misunderstand. I thought you were proposing taking 10% and trying to convince some of them who can be convinced. But the value of that is decreasing every day now. Half the population has already been infected at least once and recovered which is probably equivalent to vaccination.
But what about soccer players?
Isn't there some evidence?
Why did these vaccines produce close to 1000 cases of heart and pericardium inflammation in young men while flu vaccines do not?
What if we make covid vaccines with older technology, the way we make flu vaccines. This is not being done. No one can choose older tech vaccines over newer tech vaccines.
What's the point of being silent about the failures of FDA and CDC? The silence will not convince anyone.
In US, the number of unvaccinated is closer to 30%. This is no long tail.
There is anxiety in there. That could stand for needle phobia.
Do you think a policy of mandatory booster vaccination is now less likely or more likely after the convoy?
We also suspect many asymptomatic cases. So, your presumption that the virus only managed to infect gastrointestinal cells is insufficiently founded. It is perhaps as likely that the virus infected both gastrointestinal cells and respiratory system but was not successful enough to cause respiratory symptoms.
A related question is how many boosters of the same vaccine formulation will be required in the future and what is the safety profile of regularly repeated mRNA boosters, because the second Faustian hypothesis is that these vaccines are doing subtle but permanent damage to organs (e.g. heart or reproductive system or brain) which will accumulate until the damage is apparent and common. The appearance of increased myocarditis/pericarditis and menstrual disorders for which no mechanism is proposed is the smoke hiding a much bigger fire.
We all live in Dunbar sized bubbles. Very few people have more than 150 people for which they could know medical histories enough to answer these questions.
Which is why the Wikipedia article says that ADE is definitely not a problem for the initial strain. All the vaccine trials looked for it and did not find it
Look on the bright side. If the next variant is even less virulent than Omicron, you will stop caring about covid too.
They were put down, put underground and contaminated ground waters. There were 55 million of them
Coincidentally, Serbia just revoked the exploration licenses of Australian mining company Rio Tinto in Serbia.
Is that retaliation for the way Australia treated their best tennis player?
What is the cause of this? If Omicron is so very contagious, and it is already close to peak in many places in Europe, why is Ukraine so late?
How do you assign probability that a child will develop complications from the vaccine, they will be permanent but not lethal. E.g. The child will be sterile.
You are going to be freezing a lot of other microorganisms in your sample. Some of them could be harmful when introduced to nasal cavity at the wrong time.
At the end of 2020, the CDC estimated ~85 million infections. There were however only 32 million cases at that time. A large fraction of the difference would be asymptomatic.
The point is, it might not matter what we do with omicron, the next VOC can still come out of some animal viral pool from a virus variant we know nothing about
In your counterfactual example, we would have a much better warning coming from the third world. They would be hit much harder by the virus that affects the young disproportionately. We would literally see on TV millions of dead children in Third World countries perhaps even before the virus established a strong foothold. The beginning of the pandemic would look completely different. Isolating small children from any ways of getting in contact with the virus would become the highest priority until vaccines were developed. More different treatments would be tried. Small children would become treated as immune compromised bubble boys. They would be living in a bubble.
Does this mean that it is too late to vaccinate now or that the deadline for an unvaccinated to vaccinate is rapidly approaching?
I am not answering the question but what do you think of this?
Should Pfizer now or in the future be able to collect a 500% premium on these vaccines?
Vaccinated people are also at risk from other vaccinated people. If vaccinated people are careless and engage in many high risk activities in the enclosed environment, the advantages of vaccination will be reduced.
Well, if this is consistently applied across many events, the unvaccinated will not be allowed risky activities and the vaccinated will be allowed risky activities. Which means in practice consistently higher number of risky activities available for the vaccinated. I agree that this effect might not be significantly big and more measurements would be needed.
When you wear it for a day. For longer periods one also needs to be trained to take care of the PPE. Cleaning, storage, retc.
Half the population have IQ less than 100. You are going to set up training stations or the PPE will fail soon for a large percentage of population.
I don't understand why vaccinated people should prefer not being close to unvaccinated people.
More effective PPE require more training in their use.
But effectively, the unvaccinated were not allowed to have the same level of risk as vaccinated if they couldn't come to the event, right?
Would you expect a fairly large noticeable nocebo effect in populations which are scared by vaccination but forced into it by government or employer vaccine mandates?
Consider that in March it is much more likely that Paxlovid will be widely available than in February.
Can anyone help me make sense of this paper?
If you are vaccinated, disregard any advantage microcovid gives to vaccination status. Then adjust all microcovid estimates upward by about 50%. This should give you a risk estimate consistant with new omicron data.
"Half the people who aren’t vaccinated have sufficiently strong priors against doing anything new that they’re having none of it, it all sounds super suspicious to them, and you’re not going to tell them different. The alternative hypothesis, which I find less plausible, is that the political divide carries over to everything else automatically at this point, which is functionally the same but has some different implications."
Could a significant number of people refusing both vaccines and Paxlovid be biased against Pfizer?
How long is that long term? We don't know yet but it could be fairly short compared to a condition that can permanently damage one's heart.
That depends on age and comorbidities. That probability is highly stratified. There are some population where P(hospitalized|covid) is >5%
Vaccinating to herd immunity proved impossible
Let's say you are a man in his 20s. in USA You believe (perhaps mistakenly) that if you get sick with covid, the government will foot the bill. On the other hand, if you get the rare myocarditis from the vaccine, you will be stuck with the bills. Does this create a weird incentive for a young man to avoid vaccination on the grounds of financial risk of ruin?
We live in in a roughly Dunbar-sized group. If no one died of Covid in your group but one or two people were hurt by vaccines, you will be scared of vaccines.
And that new variant is even more infectious. Otherwise it gets drowned.
FDA is wrong. If tests are abundant, one can test every day and there is no problem of misplaced confidence.
How many were affected by more than 7 days?
it is possible that over 50% will get it.
In US, the CDC estimates 145 million infections to date, which is close to 45% of population.
On what data do you base the estimate that 90% of the world population haven't been infected by the novel coronavirus by now?
The answer to your question 4 "When supply isn’t limited, how do we get it to people in time?" is the same way Viagra is distributed, through spam messages in your email