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New Year's Predictions Thread

A killer application for augmented reality is likely to be the integration of communication channels. Today's, cellular phones annoy people with constant accountability and stress, not to mention spotty coverage, but if a HUD relay over life can display text messages as they are sent and invite fluid shifts to voice conversation. When video is engaged and shared, people could also see what their potential conversation partner is doing prior to requesting attention, giving distributed social life some of the fluidity and contextual awareness of natural social life. These sorts of benefits will motivate the teenagers of 2020 to broadcast much of their lives and to interpret the absence of their friend's data streams as a low intensity request not to call. Archival will at first be a secondary but relatively minor benefit from the technology, but will ultimately widen the divide between public and private life, a disaster for privacy advocates but a boon for academic science (by normalizing the publication of all data). Paranormal beliefs will also tend to decline, as the failure to record paranormal events and the fallibility of memory both become more glaring.

Agree, Retort, or Ignore? A Post From the Future

I find myself reluctant to support this idea. I think the main reason is that it seems very hard to translate my degrees of belief into probability numbers. So I'm afraid that I'll update my beliefs correctly in response to other people's arguments, but state the wrong numbers. Is this a skill that we can learn to perform better?

Right now I just try to indicate my degrees of belief using English words, like "I'm sure", "I think it's likely", "perhaps", etc., which has the disadvantage of not being very precise, but the advantage of requiring little mental effort (which I can redirect into for example thinking about whether an argument is correct or not).

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