All of Daniel Morgan's Comments + Replies

At the risk of being uncharitable and the hope of being productive, I'm going to tell you my honest thoughts. If I met you in person, I would think you had had a bad childhood and are projecting that baggage onto animals. Your linked post confirms that. I wouldn't engage with your intellectual arguments because I would think the hurtful emotional fragility you demonstrated at Thanksgiving indicates you are unable to have dispassionate discussions. I'm sorry you had a bad childhood. You're allowed to cry about that without crying over every bird in the worl... (read more)

I think a lot of information is contained in the tone of the response, even if the words are just "fine." Think of it as a conversational calibration. How much of a hurry is the other person in? Are you giving each other full attention? Are the emotions generally positive?

In business contexts, I like to answer positively, quickly, and without reciprocation. Sets the right tone.

Excellent synthesis. Every virtue lies between two vices.

I completely disagree! Nothing has brought me more happiness in my life than committing to a particular wife (first with marriage and then with children), a particular career, etc. No longer having to assess other options has freed up so much energy for desired ends.

Sometimes, you have to burn your own ships so that your soldiers can't consider retreating.

I agree with you, and I don't think our positions are in conflict. I think optionality is worth pursuing, but its ultimately only instrumental. You have to actually choose an option to get value from it. Optionality gives you more options to choose from, and hence a higher likelihood of selecting the best option. It's important to explore before you exploit. You will end up with a better spouse if you explore different potential partners instead of settling for the first who walks through the door. Same with your career.

At first, I thought this was a joke. I agree that Bill Gates' action and legacy should be questioned, but Microsoft is a huge institution, and swearing off a behemoth like them over the alleged associations of a founder is a purity spiral that will leave you alone in the woods.

0Josh Smith-Brennan2y
A Purity Spiral? What do you mean by that? And yes, it's not quite a joke, but meant tongue in cheek. It's not a laughing matter, but I really am curious how as rational people, we will deal with all the accusations, misinformation, disinformation and moralizing and demonizing that will come about because of this scandal. It seemed like the title was a good way to engage with people as my tamer stuff doesn't seem to be hitting quite right.  I think this is an important topic, and does have ramifications for people trying to deal rationally with such an emotionally loaded situation. Plus the billions of dollars at stake mean this is sure to...what? Hushed up quickly to spare peoples reputations, or smeared across every media outlet for months to come? How rationally will people deal with this developing story?

This analysis neglects the concept of velocity. If there is a fixed amount of dollars but (for example) a collapse in the housing market causes velocity to plummet, then unexpected deflation will wreck more chaos on the economy than an inflation rate of 1-2%.

A currency with a fixed supply is not stable.

One can avoid a wealth tax by living in another country. One can't avoid the inflation tax on US assets by moving to another country.

I don't understand why this is necessarily true. What would stop the US from levying a wealth tax on US persons living abroad?

You've created a list of reasons to like TSLA, but you haven't said a single thing that comments on the current valuation. If your current sentiment is already reflected in the price, you can be right about the future yet punished for being wrong about the valuation.

This is a lot of confidence for a very volatile stock.

Ya I’m now pretty convinced that Tesla’s market cap isn’t obviously off by an order of magnitude, and is merely a good buy with expected value similar to buying any top tech stock. So my accepted answer to the original question is “no”. I endorse buying a significant amount (10%+) of top tech stocks and Tesla as part of a diversified personal portfolio.