All of Daniel Tilkin's Comments + Replies

Covid 7/15: Rates of Change

Also, people who get tested because they need to show proof of a negative test for some purpose would be part of this background rate as well.

1simon3moYes, as Zvi mentioned in the quote and I acknowledged.
Open problem: how can we quantify player alignment in 2x2 normal-form games?

Hmm, a very interesting case! Intuitively, I would think the function would be undefined for P. Is it really a "game" at all, when neither player has a decision that has any affect on the game?

I could see "undefined" coming naturally from a division by 0 here, where the denominator has something to do with the difference in the payouts received in some way. Indeed, you probably need some sort of division like that, to make the answer invariant under affine transformation.

1JonasMoss4moIt's a game, just a trivial one. Snakes and Ladders is also a game, and its payoff matrix is similar to this one, just with a little bit of randomness involved. My intuition says that this game not only has maximal alignment, but is the only game (up to equivalence) game with maximal alignment for any set of strategiess, r. No matter what player 1 and player 2 does, the world is as good as it could be. The case can be compared to theR2when the variance of the dependent variable is 0. How much of the variance in the dependent variable does the independent variable explain in this case? It'd say it's all of it.
Useless knowledge; why people resist education improvement

Yeah, you can replace "typically" with "often" in both papers, and there's no problem. And presumably his paper didn't actually do the sort of broad analysis you'd need to argue that something held in the majority of cases. So the issue is that the student wasn't being logically rigorous and precise, and the teacher didn't mark down or comment on that. But that really isn't the point of the course.

Covid 2/11: As Expected

Huh? Ctrl-f for "complex" only  shows up in the comments. The title of the linked SSC post is "Kolmogorov Complicity And The Parable Of Lightning". It's not really related to Kolmogorov Complexity, except for a) being the same Kolmogorov, and b) being a pun on it.

1TheSimplestExplanation8moIt clearly says complexity in the article. That is the first hit I get.
Is the world becoming better?

This talks about plane crash deaths, not the number of plane crashes. Under the assumption that the fatality rate of people in a crash remains unchanged, how many people are on each plane won't affect this.