Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

A week ago I recorded a prediction on AI timeline after reading a Vox article on GPT-3 . In general I'm much more spread out in time than the Lesswrong community. Also, I weigh more heavily outside view considerations than detailed inside view information. For example, a main consideration of my prediction is using the heurastic *With 50% probability, things will last twice as long as they already have*, with the starting time of 1956, the time of the Dartmouth College summer AI conference.

If AGI will definitely happen eventually, then the heuristic gives us... (read more)

28mohttps://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY
[https://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY] quick estimate, mostly influenced
by the "outside view" and other commenters (of which I found the reasoning of
tim_dettmer to be most convincing).

48moYour prediction has the interesting property that (starting in 2021), you assign
more probability to the next n seconds/ n years than to any subsequent period of
n seconds/ n years.
Specifically, I think your distribution assigns too much probability about AGI
in the immediately next three months/year/5 years, but I feel like we do have a
bunch of information that points us away from such short timelines. If one takes
that into account, then one might end up with a bump, maybe like so
[https://elicit.ought.org/builder/c-YnaUsnA], where the location of the bump is
debatable, and the decay afterwards is per Laplace's rule.

For example, a main consideration of my prediction is using the heurastic

With 50% probability, things will last twice as long as they already have, with the starting time of 1956, the time of the Dartmouth College summer AI conference.

A counter hypothesis I’ve heard (not original to me) is: With 50% probability, we will be half-way through the AI researcher-years required to get AGI.

I think this suggests much shorter timelines, as most researchers have been doing research in the last ~10 years.

It's not clear to me what reference class makes sense he... (read more)

steven0461's Shortform Feed

I think the Metaculus crowd median is among the highest-quality predictions out there. Especially when someone goes through all the questions where they're confident the median is off, and makes comments pointing this out. I used to do this, some months back when there were more short term questions on Metaculus and more questions where I differed from the community. When you made a bunch of comments of this type a month back on Metaculus, that covered most of the 'holes', in my opinion, and now there are only a few questions where I differ ... (read more)

For the Perpetual Futures arbitrage, the return on investment is sensitive to the price difference between the future and the underlying asset. A price difference of 0.3% is needed for 10% returns per month (since 1.1^(1/30) ≈ 1.00318), while a price difference of 0.1% only gets 3% per month. I went on Binance and checked the spot price vs. the futures price for a moment in time; it was about $50 difference for BTC, or 0.085%.

So I am convinced that it's profitable to arbitrage crypto futures; I predict the rate of return for the next 12 months at 10% - 40%... (read more)