TBC, I'm definitely NOT thinking of this as an argument for funding AI safety.
I'm definitely interested in hearing other ways of splitting it up! This is one of the points of making this post. I'm also interested in what you think of the ways I've done the breakdown! Since you proposed an alternative, I guess you might have some thoughts on why it could be better :)
I see your points as being directed more at increasing ML researchers respect for AI x-risk work and their likelihood of doing relevant work. Maybe that should in fact be the goal. It seems to be a more common goal.
I would describe my goal (with this post, at least, and probably with most conversations I have with ML people about Xrisk) as something more like: "get them to understand the AI safety mindset, and where I'm coming from; get them to really think about the problem and engage with it". I expect a lot of people here would reason in a very narrow and myopic consequentialist way that this is not as good a goal, but I'm unconvinced.
TBC, it's an unconference, so it wasn't really a talk (although I did end up talking a lot :P).
How sure are you that the people who showed up were objecting out of deeply-held disagreements, and not out of a sense that objections are good?
Seems like a false dichotomy. I'd say people were mostly disagreeing out of not-very-deeply-held-at-all disagreements :)
Another important improvement I should make: rephrase these to have the type signature of "heuristic"!
No, my goal is to:
And yes, I did mean >1%, but I just put that number there to give people a sense of what I mean, since "non-trivial" can mean very different things to different people.
Oh sure, in some special cases. I don't this this experience was particularly representative.
Yeah I've had conversations with people who shot down a long list of concerned experts, e.g.:
But then, even the big 5 of deep learning have all said things that can be used to support the case....
So it kind of seems like there should be a compendium of quotes somewhere, or something.
A few questions and comments:
I pushed this post out since I think it's good to link to it in this other post. But there are at least 2 improvements I'd like to make and would appreciate help with:
The link to user preferences is broken. Is there still this feature built-in? Or does the firefox thing still work?