The people who make ad blockers have improved my life enormously. It's worth noting Facebook timeline ads are not particularly annoying. Maybe forcing sites to mask their ads as content is a good thing.
It only assumes there are a lot of domains in which you would be happy to make progress. In addition success is at least somewhat fungible across domains. And it is much easier to cut red tape once you already resources and a track record (possibly in a different domain).
Don't start out in a red-tape domain unless you are ready to fight off the people trying to slow you down. This requires a lot of money, connections, and lawyers and you still might lose. Put your talents to work in an easier domain, at least to start.
If you are a smart person I suggest working in domains where the regulators have not yet shut down progress. In many domains, if you want to make progress most of your obstacles are going to be other humans. It is refreshingly easy to make progress if you only have to face the ice.
Everyone shits on younger people (say 14-22). But the younger people I interact with have a lot of great ideas and good perspectives. I am always happy to have a chance to learn from them. Why so much hate?
Crypto is not doing the hottest. But another part of the story is BTC is losing dominance. Though who knows what is about to happen.
Use Authy, not Google authenticator. GA not supporting any sort of backups is a huge problem.
The magnitudes are much smaller on both sides of a recent situation. My father died three weeks ago. The family somehow ended up spending over 40K on death expenses (funeral, mausoleum slot, flowers, etc). My mom ended up spending six hundred and fifty dollars on a single rose arrangement in the shape of a big heart. The time to convince my family of effective altruism is not right after my father died. But I found spending so much money on a dead man, or more charitably expensive rites for the living, horrifying to see up close. Six hundred and fifty doll... (read more)
Years of accumulated experience and metis point the other way, at least for this audience. Anyone who has spent time in rationalist or rationalist adjacent spaces knows that a huge percentage of rationalists* are trans. After many years of being an active rationalist* I literally know dozens of trans people in or adjacent to the community. If a rationalist is struggling with whether to transition they should try transitioning. A huge number of rationalists think trying hormones was the best decision they ever made, very few seriously regret it. If a ration... (read more)
The coronavirus response has been so bad I no longer doubt many Sci-Fi premises. Before I often said to myself "you have tech that can do X and you still have problem Y. Ridiculous!". But apparently, we can make a coronavirus vaccine in two days. But we still had over a year of lockdowns and millions of deaths. One in six hundred people in the USA have died of the virus but we blocked a vaccine because one in a million people who take it MIGHT develop treatable blood clots.
My standards for 'realistic' dysfunction have gotten a lot lower.
There are several groups now because people wanted to keep some topics seperated. Sadly I don't think any of them are open to the public.
Which epistemic values? I am posting these trades in public (not always on lesswrong itself but in adjacent spaces which are easy enough to check if needed). If they blow up I will suffer the reputational consequences. The inverse should occur if they work out well. Do you want to bet on whether FTX.com losses a substantial amount of user funds in the next year? What odds do you give?
The opportunities don't seem gone to me. Though I doubt we see anything as good as 2011 bitcoin. Many rationalists bought Solana around January 7th when it unlocks. I posted a... (read more)
1 - The historical returns would obviously have been ludicrously high. I assume advice will be worse going forward. There has not been all that much investing advice on lesswrong and some of it was to buy crypto relatively early. If some of your investments 200-2000x you don't need to be right about much else. And it is not like all the other advice would have gone terribly. Tech stocks are doing great. Some of the advice was also boring stuff like 'buy index funds'. Do you think there are hundreds of examples of investment ideas on lesswrong that went to ... (read more)
A good friend of mine, who I know is making absurd returns on altcoins, is still bummed about that losing his entire investment on that options trade. Losing 100% is pretty demoralizing I guess.
That is not a similar situation. In the AI situation, your risks obviously increase over time.
If you are trying to get people into an investment don't mention the price you got in at. Mentioning it just makes them less likely to buy-in. They don't have a time machine so they don't need to know. What matters is why you think the current price is too low.
It is not a serious problem if your epistemology gives you the wrong answer in extremely unlikely worlds (ie ones where you survived 1000 rounds of Russian Roulette). Don't optimize for extremely unlikely scenarios.
I agree and recommend this trade here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets
My father died
It has been a rough year.
ETH is switching off PoW. Once ETh swaps crypto will be less than 90% PoW.
I would not forget to include something like a house. We rent.
Me and my partner Titania are living on 2500-3000usd a month all-inclusive. Our income is quite a bit more than that lol. We are hoping to get this lower.
I was quite explicit the current perp trade will only go on so long. You can lever the trade some amount to get to 5 or ten percent. Though there are limits to how much leverage you can use.
Imo you certainly should not compare a low risk investment to a plan that involves going long crypto.
You dont seem to be doing any sort of empirical calculation about how often things go wrong. Especially with respect to crypto exchanges. Exchanges have operated for many years. Users losing their funds is very rare. Empirically there is nothing like a one percent chance an exchange losses your money over a few months.
The short answer is no
I think you need to follow good practices. Getting out with no plan is not following good practices. I will write up my opinion on best practices soon. Though it is nothing too crazy.
Saying that something is less than 1% to happen is not saying it's impossible. If you hit the bad 1% you lose your investment. This is certainly possible. I am happy to take favorable bets even if 1% of the time I lose the entire investment. I am not going to bring down the financial system if I get unlucky. The risks on some of these are much less than 1% over the relevant time periods.
The point I was trying to make here was that your space of material risks and their probabilities are much too optimistic, so your presentation here is not “Strong Evidence” that the EMH is false. (I also mentioned that, your practical form of the EMH aside, multiple variants of the EMH make this a more complicated issue than you’ve presented, but I believe I get what you’re trying to say so that’s really just a minor quibble.)
In your second paragraph you state that there are nearly risk-free trades that net at least a 5% monthly return, i.e., an Annualize... (read more)
Not Vitalik. A friend of mine from OBNYC.
I don't know why you had so many troubles putting money into polymarket a few months back. Right now polymarket is in 'trouble' since ETH fees are so high so its expensive to withdraw.
I mostly election bet elsewhere but I got five figures into polymarket without too much trouble.
I wish you had posted on lesswrong. I would have happily helped you.
Returns for the safe trades I discuss more than compensate for counterparty risks. Of course, you will incur short-term capital gains doing these trades. But the returns I am describing are extremely lucrative and more than compensate for the tax treatment.
"You're claiming you've been correctly noticing good investment opportunities over a several-month period." This not what I am arguing. I am arguing that you can check the EMH right now and notice it is false.
The actual answer to your question is unfairly favorable to me given market conditions. I put a relatively large percentage of money into crypto so my overall portfolio is up more than 200% over the last twelve months. This is not replicable going forward. Pretty much everything in crypto is up but Solana started spiking later than other coins because... (read more)
It cost me about 100 the final time I withdrew.
I recently pulled my money out of Polymarket. Returns don't seem that great anymore. The binary options seemed at least reasonably priced to me when I did some Black Scholes. The maga money is basically gone. People should also be warned that it is expensive to get out of Polymarket.
Crypto started off like 5% of my portfolio. Now it is like 70%. I have actually been selling crypto lol.
Multiple houses did this sort of thing.
There was also an enormous amount of social pressure to be extremely covid cautious. It was really over the top given the community demographics (very young!). This is part of the reason I recently left the Bay community.
I disagree with your interpretation of what happened with respect to talent constraints. In addition, I have a meta-critique. In your hypothetical people talk about 'talent constraints' without citing any articles. But you don't cite any articles either!
I think quite a lot of the basis for 'EA is talent constrained came from the 80K hours surveys. 2017 2018. Both surveys were quite detailed and cannot be quickly summarized. But the 2017 report literally says the following:
On a 0-4 scale EA organisations viewed themselves as 2.5 ‘talent constrai
That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good. He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.
Many people including myself got way better percentage and absolute returns on the election. He was way too optimistic.
What do you think of this article by Holden: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gTaDDJFDzqe7jnTWG/some-thoughts-on-public-discourse
Holden seems rather concerned with PR to me. The article explicitly supports your claim that 'PR concerns' push people towards not communicating at all. But it seems like Holden has quite good reasons to communicate less openly.
To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised. It seems important in many contexts to avoid angering the wrong people. Maintaining 'good PR' is a valuable instrumental goal. To wh... (read more)
To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised.
To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised.
I am basically advising that you treat the concept of PR, and the word “PR”, the way you would treat a skilled but incredibly sleazy used car salesman. You may sometimes wish to deal with him anyway, if you can’t practically locate any other way to buy a car. But you’ll want to be very very alert to what’s being slipped into “your” “beliefs”, while you do so.
Sort of like if you were using a concept from Scientology to navigate a personal psychological issue.
Do you think trying to be 'honorable
Do you think trying to be 'honorable
One of my biggest regrets is not focusing on making money when I was younger. There was a lot of money to be made, and it would have been really useful. Money is optionality and can be used to further many goals.
This advice would have gone really terribly for me. I have maintained a lot of friendships over time and I have been with the same primary partner for almost eight years now. But most of my previous life plans were really dumb. Thank goodness I did not commit to them!
A decent number of people get into polyamory due to the rationalist community. If someone got involved with polyamory thanks to the community and it went badly, I think it would be reasonable to write such a post. Especially if they would have done the opposite if things had gone well. I should note I myself am poly. There are definitely houses that have gone even worse than DT.
Also the most obvious to me example of 'good standing outside the bay -> 'got into a huge amount of trouble in the bay' also had no connection to DT.
Bughouse Chess seems like an option. Bughouse is played on two boards. Pieces captured on one board can be placed on the other board. Bughouse is rather popular with strong chess players. Traditionally bughouse is played in teams of two. But nothing is stopping you from having one player play both of their boards. Given its popularity, it seems like an attractive option. Though you have to order the turns WhiteA, WhiteB, BlackB, BlackA.
You can significantly reduce draws in normal Chess by simplifying the rules and getting rid of 'check'. Just swap to the clean win condition of 'capture the opposing King'. In particular, this means all KIng+Pawn vs King endgames are won unless the friendly pawn and king are too far away. If KPvsK is winning a large number of other endgames are winning as well since they can be converted to KPvsK. It has other implications. For example, all normal Queen vs Pawn endgames are won unless the pawn immediately promotes.
It basically is a command. So maybe it's a feature that the phrase feels commanding. Though it is a sort of 'soft command' in that you would accept a good excuse to not answer (like 'I am too busy, I will explain later').
I sent you a pm
Yeah, to get 20%+ you have to lever up. You can either use other investments on ftx as collateral to avoid liquidation (there are many attractive ones including copies of SPY) or you have to tolerate some liquidation threshold.
The US presidential election has already ended but for weeks since it concluded people outside the USA (and arguably inside the USA) have been able to bet on it. At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting 'TRUMPFEB' on FTX. As recently as the 24th you could make 30%+. These markets resolve on Feb 1st. This easily 'beats the market' even if you give Trump a 1% chance and accept some counter-party risk.
I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo m... (read more)
The real solution is to drop out unless you are clearly a superstar or you are extremely close to finishing your PHD. No need to deny the truth.
I say this as someone who wasted three years in a PHD program. Luckily I got out when I did before I wasted more years or started a postdoc. If you are not a superstar start planning your exit.
There are several alternatives available to US residents. If you are willing to bet using crypto you can get large sizes and much lower fees than predictit. If you did not make substantial amounts of money (relative to your net worth) from the US election you made a mistake.
dirac_x(A) is a function of A, x is fixed.