All of deluks917's Comments + Replies

Thoughts on Ad Blocking

The people who make ad blockers have improved my life enormously. It's worth noting Facebook timeline ads are not particularly annoying. Maybe forcing sites to mask their ads as content is a good thing.

0meedstrom8dCompare with a world where an omnipresent virus has been eating all adblockers since the beginning. Perhaps some of us would be in a better place, using the internet less. Perhaps it'd actually have become a norm to pay for ad-free content and many of us would stay on the parts of the web we paid for. If that's the alternative, I believe they have harmed your life. Remember that bending backwards for ads is not just making your site uglier -- it's doing everything to maximize pageviews and clicks, which affects everything, down to selecting the very kinds of content that get posted. The web as a whole is less honest. Are "ads" just visual clutter to you? To me it's a low signal-to-noise ratio, demonstrated by the filler content on a cooking recipe or how a 10-minute YouTube video is carved into 3 minutes of introduction, 3 minutes of pointless digressions, 1 minute of information, 3 minutes on why the information was great, and "please like and share and don't forget to hit that subscribe button". Masked ads are in the same vein, you have to realize you're reading "nutritionally empty" content and filter it out. It's immensely tiresome and I'd rather have simple visual clutter.
Death by Red Tape

It only assumes there are a lot of domains in which you would be happy to make progress. In addition success is at least somewhat fungible across domains. And it is much easier to cut red tape once you already resources and a track record (possibly in a different domain). 

Don't start out in a red-tape domain unless you are ready to fight off the people trying to slow you down. This requires a lot of money, connections, and lawyers and you still might lose. Put your talents to work in an easier domain, at least to start.

Death by Red Tape

If you are a smart person I suggest working in domains where the regulators have not yet shut down progress. In many domains, if you want to make progress most of your obstacles are going to be other humans. It is refreshingly easy to make progress if you only have to face the ice.

6Vladimir_Nesov13dThat's ambitious without an ambition. Switching domains stops your progress in the original domain completely, so doesn't make it easier to make progress. Unless domain doesn't matter, only fungible "progress".
deluks917's Shortform

Everyone shits on younger people (say 14-22). But the younger people I interact with have a lot of great ideas and good perspectives. I am always happy to have a chance to learn from them. Why so much hate? 

3Gunnar_Zarncke18dBecause what they do or believed to do - gaming and social - is seen as idling/sloth.
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

Crypto is not doing the hottest. But another part of the story is BTC is losing dominance. Though who knows what is about to happen.

deluks917's Shortform

Use Authy, not Google authenticator. GA not supporting any sort of backups is a huge problem.

People are gathering 2 million USD to save a kid with a rare disease. I feel weird about it. Why?

The magnitudes are much smaller on both sides of a recent situation. My father died three weeks ago. The family somehow ended up spending over 40K on death expenses (funeral, mausoleum slot, flowers, etc). My mom ended up spending six hundred and fifty dollars on a single rose arrangement in the shape of a big heart. The time to convince my family of effective altruism is not right after my father died. But I found spending so much money on a dead man, or more charitably expensive rites for the living, horrifying to see up close. Six hundred and fifty doll... (read more)

1hookdump16dI'm very sorry for your loss. I do agree with your view on the ineffectiveness of spending a lot of money on a dead person. However... I think people find meaning from a wide range of things, and rituals around birth and death are two big ones since the origins of humankind itself. So in a sense, I can empathize with your family spending so much money. It seems to mean something to them. Sacrificing material things in funerary rituals is as old as Ancient Egypt [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egyptian_funerary_practices], and probably much older. The only new component in modern society is that now this sacrifice transforms into profit for someone else (the funerary industry, who operate under dubious ethical grounds). But from the perspective of the griefing loved ones of the deceased, I think it's all about meaning and closure.
The consequentialist case for social conservatism, or “Against Cultural Superstimuli”

Years of accumulated experience and metis point the other way, at least for this audience. Anyone who has spent time in rationalist or rationalist adjacent spaces knows that a huge percentage of rationalists* are trans. After many years of being an active rationalist* I literally know dozens of trans people in or adjacent to the community. If a rationalist is struggling with whether to transition they should try transitioning. A huge number of rationalists think trying hormones was the best decision they ever made, very few seriously regret it. If a ration... (read more)

deluks917's Shortform

The coronavirus response has been so bad I no longer doubt many Sci-Fi premises. Before I often said to myself "you have tech that can do X and you still have problem Y. Ridiculous!". But apparently, we can make a coronavirus vaccine in two days. But we still had over a year of lockdowns and millions of deaths. One in six hundred people in the USA have died of the virus but we blocked a vaccine because one in a million people who take it MIGHT develop treatable blood clots. 

My standards for 'realistic' dysfunction have gotten a lot lower.

4Raemon1moOn the flipside: WTF Star Trek?
3eigen1moThe heads of Government and the FDA don't work like you do. Who knows the incentives that they have? It's entirely possible that for them this is just a political play(moving chess pieces) that make sense for them while the well-being of the people take secondary place to a particular political move. This wouldn't be the first thing that this happens in any kind of government agency, but, at any rate, it's too early to be skeptical. We need to see how this unfolds, may be the pausing don't last as much.
4niplav1moI remember Yudkowsky asking for a realistic explanation [https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1061336147744317440] for why the Empire in Star Wars is stuck in an equilibrium where it builds destroyable gigantic weapons.
People Will Listen

There are several groups now because people wanted to keep some topics seperated. Sadly I don't think any of them are open to the public.

People Will Listen

Which epistemic values? I am posting these trades in public (not always on lesswrong itself but in adjacent spaces which are easy enough to check if needed). If they blow up I will suffer the reputational consequences. The inverse should occur if they work out well. Do you want to bet on whether FTX.com losses a substantial amount of user funds in the next year? What odds do you give?

The opportunities don't seem gone to me. Though I doubt we see anything as good as 2011 bitcoin. Many rationalists bought Solana around January 7th when it unlocks. I posted a... (read more)

1antanaclasis1moYou mention the EA investing group. Where is that? A cursory search didn’t seem to bring anything up. Also, more generally speaking, what would be your top few recommendations of places to keep up with the latest rationalist investment advice?
People Will Listen

1 - The historical returns would obviously have been ludicrously high. I assume advice will be worse going forward. There has not been all that much investing advice on lesswrong and some of it was to buy crypto relatively early. If some of your investments 200-2000x you don't need to be right about much else. And it is not like all the other advice would have gone terribly. Tech stocks are doing great. Some of the advice was also boring stuff like 'buy index funds'. Do you think there are hundreds of examples of investment ideas on lesswrong that went to ... (read more)

9PeterMcCluskey1moHow many LWers bought Bitcoin in 2011 and ended up with poor returns due to the demise of Mt. Gox? I almost ended up losing a little of my money that way, but was stopped when my KYC evidence was rejected for no clear reason. I ended up doing well by buying Ripples a couple of years later, but I don't know whether I would have done that if I had lost money in my first attempt.
Monastery and Throne

A good friend of mine, who I know is making absurd returns on altcoins, is still bummed about that losing his entire investment on that options trade. Losing 100% is pretty demoralizing I guess. 

Learning Russian Roulette

That is not a similar situation. In the AI situation, your risks obviously increase over time. 

deluks917's Shortform

If you are trying to get people into an investment don't mention the price you got in at. Mentioning it just makes them less likely to buy-in. They don't have a time machine so they don't need to know. What matters is why you think the current price is too low.

Learning Russian Roulette

It is not a serious problem if your epistemology gives you the wrong answer in extremely unlikely worlds (ie ones where you survived 1000 rounds of Russian Roulette). Don't optimize for extremely unlikely scenarios. 

2Charlie Steiner1moWe can make this point even more extreme by playing a game like the "unexpected hanging paradox [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox]," where surprising the prisoner most of the time is only even possible if you pay for it in the coin of not surprising them at all some of the time.
2NunoSempere1moI disagree; this might have real world implications. For example, the recent OpenPhil report on Semi-informative Priors for AI timelines [https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FPXFtBQHhkDDHBSt6/report-on-semi-informative-priors-for-ai-timelines-open] updates on the passage of time, but if we model creating AGI as playing Russian roulette*, perhaps one shouldn't update on the passage of time. * I.e., AGI in the 2000s might have lead to an existential catastrophe due to underdeveloped safety theory
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

I agree and recommend this trade here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets

deluks917's Shortform

My father died It has been a rough year.

2Ben Pace2moI’m sorry to hear that :(
2Raemon2mo:(
2habryka2moThat sucks. Sorry for your loss.
3Maxwell Peterson2moI’m sorry for your loss.
A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance

ETH is switching off PoW. Once ETh swaps crypto will be less than 90% PoW. 

2Jameson Quinn2moDoesn't matter until the switch is done.
Conspicuous saving

I would not forget to include something like a house. We rent.

Conspicuous saving

Me and my partner Titania are living on 2500-3000usd a month all-inclusive. Our income is quite a bit more than that lol. We are hoping to get this lower.

3Ericf2moFor everyone: please include the implied rent from non-financial assets when listing numbers like this. For example, my (southern California) house would rent for about 2500-3000 /month, but I bought it 10 years ago and my cash-flow expense for mortgage + taxes + repairs is half that. Similarly, if you own a car you should include its depreciation in your monthly spending numbers. And if you want to get really precise, include the depreciation on your appliances and wardrobe as well - that's only on the order of $10,000 in original purchase price, but if you're going hyper-mileage on your expenses, it's not neglectable.
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

I was quite explicit the current perp trade will only go on so long. You can lever the trade some amount to get to 5 or ten percent. Though there are limits to how much leverage you can use.

Imo you certainly should not compare a low risk investment to a plan that involves going long crypto.

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

You dont seem to be doing any sort of empirical calculation about how often things go wrong. Especially with respect to crypto exchanges. Exchanges have operated for many years. Users losing their funds is very rare. Empirically there is nothing like a one percent chance an exchange losses your money over a few months.

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

I think you need to follow good practices. Getting out with no plan is not following good practices. I will write up my opinion on best practices soon. Though it is nothing too crazy.

3cos2moFor precisely this reason, I'm fairly certain Bogleheads-style investing [https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Outline_of_investing] has the highest expected value for most people. The core philosophy of the approach seeks to minimize behavioral pitfalls [https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls] while maintaining satisfactory outcomes. It's surprising how infrequently it's discussed here. (Perhaps it's because we're more a community of optimizers than satisficers?) On that note, the Bogleheads theory forum [https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=10] is excellent if you're looking to learn more and develop the ideas further.
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

Saying that something is less than 1% to happen is not saying it's impossible. If you hit the bad 1% you lose your investment. This is certainly possible. I am happy to take favorable bets even if 1% of the time I lose the entire investment. I am not going to bring down the financial system if I get unlucky. The risks on some of these are much less than 1% over the relevant time periods. 

The point I was trying to make here was that your space of material risks and their probabilities are much too optimistic, so your presentation here is not “Strong Evidence” that the EMH is false. (I also mentioned that, your practical form of the EMH aside, multiple variants of the EMH make this a more complicated issue than you’ve presented, but I believe I get what you’re trying to say so that’s really just a minor quibble.)

In your second paragraph you state that there are nearly risk-free trades that net at least a 5% monthly return, i.e., an Annualize... (read more)

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

Not Vitalik. A friend of mine from OBNYC.

I don't know why you had so many troubles putting money into polymarket a few months back. Right now polymarket is in 'trouble' since ETH fees are so high so its expensive to withdraw. 

I mostly election bet elsewhere but I got five figures into polymarket without too much trouble. 

I wish you had posted on lesswrong. I would have happily helped you.

The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

Returns for the safe trades I discuss more than compensate for counterparty risks. Of course, you will incur short-term capital gains doing these trades. But the returns I am describing are extremely lucrative and more than compensate for the tax treatment.  

3cos2moDo you do your own taxes? If so, how much more difficult do they become after all of this niche activity? How long did they take you to finish this year and last?
The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

"You're claiming you've been correctly noticing good investment opportunities over a several-month period." This not what I am arguing. I am arguing that you can check the EMH right now and notice it is false.

The actual answer to your question is unfairly favorable to me given market conditions. I put a relatively large percentage of money into crypto so my overall portfolio is up more than 200% over the last twelve months. This is not replicable going forward. Pretty much everything in crypto is up but Solana started spiking later than other coins because... (read more)

3Gerald Monroe2moI am arguing that you can check the EMH right now and notice it is false. The issue is that unknown "counterparty risk" term. As you do not know this risk - you have so far seen it to be zero but you do not have evidence it is actually close to zero - you do not know these bets are better than EMH. Or if they are, that they are going to be available for more than a brief period of time. Buying securities on the public market via a reputable brokerage, the risk that your profile goes to zero because of any number of technical errors or fraud is very low. There are decades of examples of investors ultimately getting the market value of their shares at the point in their lifespan they choose to sell. This large number examples over a large period of time is evidence that the risk term is very small. This 'security' does not exist for the commodities you are showing. Therefore if you take [observed returned] - [risk term], EMH says that this term is less than or equal to market returns. You have not disproven it. You may ultimately be right but the evidence in front of you doesn't show what you are saying. You need to wait enough years to collect enough evidence to get an accurate estimate of the risk term for these markets before you can make this conclusion.
1Dan Weinand2moThanks for the reply! I find those numbers more persuasive than anything else. Well done!
Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit

It cost me about 100 the final time I withdrew. 

2ike2moYeah, if you do it through Poly instead of matic it's more expensive.
Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit

I recently pulled my money out of Polymarket. Returns don't seem that great anymore. The binary options seemed at least reasonably priced to me when I did some Black Scholes. The maga money is basically gone. 

People should also be warned that it is expensive to get out of Polymarket.

5Srdjan Miletic2moThat's a good point. I'm used to the free withdrawals. Didn't realize the costs until I looked at their blog just now. Will update the article.
2ike2moCosts around $50 to withdraw depending on gas and eth fees at the time. It's cheaper if you use matic directly.
A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement

Crypto started off like 5% of my portfolio. Now it is like 70%. I have actually been selling crypto lol. 

2gilch2moIs that because your portfolio's crypto ratio inflated that much on its own before you started rebalancing, or did you sell other assets to buy that much more in crypto?
Takeaways from one year of lockdown

Multiple houses did this sort of thing.

There was also an enormous amount of social pressure to be extremely covid cautious. It was really over the top given the community demographics (very young!). This is part of the reason I recently left the Bay community.

3remizidae2moIt's very strange to me that a group of people who are, on average, very well informed about COVID, and who are probably aware that the risk of death for healthy non-elderly people is incredibly low, would so often go completely overboard on precautions. Is it hyper-altruism?
Mentorship, Management, and Mysterious Old Wizards

I disagree with your interpretation of what happened with respect to talent constraints. In addition, I have a meta-critique. In your hypothetical people talk about 'talent constraints' without citing any articles. But you don't cite any articles either! 

I think quite a lot of the basis for 'EA is talent constrained came from the 80K hours surveys. 2017 2018. Both surveys were quite detailed and cannot be quickly summarized. But the 2017 report literally says the following: 

  • On a 0-4 scale EA organisations viewed themselves as 2.5 ‘talent constrai
... (read more)
2Raemon3moOh, whoops! I totally meant the post to directly link to this post: https://80000hours.org/2015/11/why-you-should-focus-more-on-talent-gaps-not-funding-gaps/ [https://80000hours.org/2015/11/why-you-should-focus-more-on-talent-gaps-not-funding-gaps/] Which I have now properly edited in. Not sure that that changes the thrust of your critique but that was a straightforward error on my part.
Bet On Biden

That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good.  He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.

Bet On Biden

Many people including myself got way better percentage and absolute returns on the election. He was way too optimistic.

1Liam Donovan3moBut he's been a professional politics gambler for years now, which seems like much stronger evidence for evaluating his calibration than the results of one election cycle?
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.

What do you think of this article by Holden: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gTaDDJFDzqe7jnTWG/some-thoughts-on-public-discourse

Holden seems rather concerned with PR to me. The article explicitly supports your claim that 'PR concerns' push people towards not communicating at all. But it seems like Holden has quite good reasons to communicate less openly. 

To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised. It seems important in many contexts to avoid angering the wrong people. Maintaining 'good PR' is a valuable instrumental goal. To wh... (read more)

To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised.

I am basically advising that you treat the concept of PR, and the word “PR”, the way you would treat a skilled but incredibly sleazy used car salesman. You may sometimes wish to deal with him anyway, if you can’t practically locate any other way to buy a car. But you’ll want to be very very alert to what’s being slipped into “your” “beliefs”, while you do so.

Sort of like if you were using a concept from Scientology to navigate a personal psychological issue.

Do you think trying to be 'honorable

... (read more)
Taking money seriously

One of my biggest regrets is not focusing on making money when I was younger. There was a lot of money to be made, and it would have been really useful. Money is optionality and can be used to further many goals.

6Mo Nastri3moWhen I was younger, I used to be proud of my relative indifference towards money. It took me an embarrassingly long time to realize that resource acquisition is a convergent instrumental goal.
Lifelong investments

This advice would have gone really terribly for me. I have maintained a lot of friendships over time and I have been with the same primary partner for almost eight years now. But most of my previous life plans were really dumb. Thank goodness I did not commit to them!

Group house norms really do seem toxic to many people.

A decent number of people get into polyamory due to the rationalist community. If someone got involved with polyamory thanks to the community and it went badly, I think it would be reasonable to write such a post. Especially if they would have done the opposite if things had gone well. I should note I myself am poly. There are definitely houses that have gone even worse than DT. 

Also the most obvious to me example of 'good standing outside the bay -> 'got into a huge amount of trouble in the bay' also had no connection to DT.

Ideal Chess - drop chess perfected

Bughouse Chess seems like an option. Bughouse is played on two boards. Pieces captured on one board can be placed on the other board. Bughouse is rather popular with strong chess players. Traditionally bughouse is played in teams of two. But nothing is stopping you from having one player play both of their boards. Given its popularity, it seems like an attractive option. Though you have to order the turns WhiteA, WhiteB, BlackB, BlackA. 

Ideal Chess - drop chess perfected

You can significantly reduce draws in normal Chess by simplifying the rules and getting rid of 'check'. Just swap to the clean win condition of 'capture the opposing King'. In particular, this means all KIng+Pawn vs King endgames are won unless the friendly pawn and king are too far away. If KPvsK is winning a large number of other endgames are winning as well since they can be converted to KPvsK.  It has other implications. For example, all normal Queen vs Pawn endgames are won unless the pawn immediately promotes.

2MikkW5moAside from changing stalemates, I don't see how this changes anything. Checkmate is isomorphic to capturing the king, as long as no blunders are made
Raemon's Shortform

It basically is a command. So maybe it's a feature that the phrase feels commanding. Though it is a sort of 'soft command' in that you would accept a good excuse to not answer (like 'I am too busy, I will explain later').

2Raemon5moI think it's not the case that I really want it to be a command, I want it to be "reveal culture", where, it is a fact that I want to know this thing, and that I think it'd be useful if you told me. But, it's also the case that we are friends and if you didn't want to tell me for whatever reason I'd find a way to work with that. (the line is blurry sometimes, there's a range of modes I'm in when I make this sort of phrase, some more commandlike than others. But, I definitely frequently want to issue a non-command. The main thing I want to fix is that "I'm curious" in particular is basically a lie, or at least has misleading connotes)
Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)

Yeah, to get 20%+ you have to lever up. You can either use other investments on ftx as collateral to avoid liquidation (there are many attractive ones including copies of SPY) or you have to tolerate some liquidation threshold.

1Liam Donovan5moCan you explain how the leverage system works on FTX for TRUMPFEB? The calculator on the site seems to produce bizzare results.
Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)

The US presidential election has already ended but for weeks since it concluded people outside the USA (and arguably inside the USA) have been able to bet on it. At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting 'TRUMPFEB' on FTX. As recently as the 24th you could make 30%+. These markets resolve on Feb 1st. This easily 'beats the market' even if you give Trump a 1% chance and accept some counter-party risk.

I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo m... (read more)

1TheSimplestExplanation5moI'm interested as well.
1interstice5moI too am interested in the crypto opportunity.
1Anshuman R5moAlso interested in the crypto opportunity.
1Thomas Kwa5moI'm also interested in this!
3Thomas Kwa5moTRUMPFEB is trading at 0.103 and has been under 0.12 for a while. Do you mean levered returns?
1knite5moI'm interested in this and would also love to chat!
6Wei_Dai5moThere is a surprisingly large number of people who believe the election was clearly "stolen" and the Supreme Court will eventually decide for Trump. There's a good piece in the NYT about this [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/opinion/sunday/trump-election-fraud.html] today. Should they think that the markets are inefficient because they can make 80% returns longing ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX? Presumably not, but that means by symmetry your argument is at least incomplete. This sounds more like my cup of tea. :) Can you provide more details either publicly or privately?
Using false but instrumentally rational beliefs for your career?

The real solution is to drop out unless you are clearly a superstar or you are extremely close to finishing your PHD. No need to deny the truth. 

I say this as someone who wasted three years in a PHD program. Luckily I got out when I did before I wasted more years or started a postdoc. If you are not a superstar start planning your exit.

Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)

There are several alternatives available to US residents. If you are willing to bet using crypto you can get large sizes and much lower fees than predictit. If you did not make substantial amounts of money (relative to your net worth) from the US election you made a mistake.

Examples of Measures

Alternate explanation:

dirac_x(A) is a function of A, x is fixed.

1Maxwell Peterson6moYeah, this makes sense. Hmm. I’ll think about this more then edit the post. Thanks
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