All of devrandom's Comments + Replies

If we haven't seen such an extinction in the archaeological record, it can mean one of several things:

  • misalignment is rare, or
  • misalignment is not rare once the species becomes intelligent, but intelligence is rare or
  • intelligence usually results in transcendence, so there's only one transition before the bio becomes irrelevant in the lightcone (and we are it)

We don't know which.  I think it's a combination of 2 and 3.

The app is not currently working - it complains about the token.

The API token was cancelled, sorry about that. The most recent version of the chatbot is now at and, and should not have the API token issue.
1William the Kiwi 6mo
I have had a similar issue. The model outputs the comment: Incorrect API key provided: sk-5LW5C***************************************HGYd. You can find your API key at

and thus AGI arrives - quite predictably[17] - around the end of Moore's Law


Given that the brain only consumes 20 W because of biological competitiveness constraints, and that 200 KW only costs around $20/hour in data centers, we can afford to be four OOMs less efficient than the brain while maintaining parity of capabilities.  This results in AGI's potential arrival at least a couple of decades earlier than the end of Moore's Law.