All of devrandom's Comments + Replies

If we haven't seen such an extinction in the archaeological record, it can mean one of several things:

  • misalignment is rare, or
  • misalignment is not rare once the species becomes intelligent, but intelligence is rare or
  • intelligence usually results in transcendence, so there's only one transition before the bio becomes irrelevant in the lightcone (and we are it)

We don't know which.  I think it's a combination of 2 and 3.

The app is not currently working - it complains about the token.

1BionicD0LPH1N6mo
The API token was cancelled, sorry about that. The most recent version of the chatbot is now at https://chat.stampy.ai and https://chat.aisafety.info, and should not have the API token issue.
1William the Kiwi 6mo
I have had a similar issue. The model outputs the comment: Incorrect API key provided: sk-5LW5C***************************************HGYd. You can find your API key at https://platform.openai.com/account/api-keys.

and thus AGI arrives - quite predictably[17] - around the end of Moore's Law

 

Given that the brain only consumes 20 W because of biological competitiveness constraints, and that 200 KW only costs around $20/hour in data centers, we can afford to be four OOMs less efficient than the brain while maintaining parity of capabilities.  This results in AGI's potential arrival at least a couple of decades earlier than the end of Moore's Law.