If we haven't seen such an extinction in the archaeological record, it can mean one of several things:
We don't know which. I think it's a combination of 2 and 3.
The app is not currently working - it complains about the token.
and thus AGI arrives - quite predictably - around the end of Moore's Law
Given that the brain only consumes 20 W because of biological competitiveness constraints, and that 200 KW only costs around $20/hour in data centers, we can afford to be four OOMs less efficient than the brain while maintaining parity of capabilities. This results in AGI's potential arrival at least a couple of decades earlier than the end of Moore's Law.