All of DuncanF's Comments + Replies

Rationality Quotes November 2014

That strikes me as really ... odd.

To whom is the advice addressed? If something is actually untrue, and one has determined it to be untrue, then the task of being skeptical about it is finished.

I could probably find a loophole in the preceding statement, but it couldn't possibly be what Bill James was referring to.

As for directing skepticism at [claims depending upon] things that are difficult to measure, well that seems like one step away from directing skepticism at claims depending on little evidence. Which is surely what we want to do. Again, there's a loophole, but clearly not something Bill James was trying to point out.

Dealing with trolling and the signal to noise ratio

My expectation is that there would be a significant degree of similarity. This may be a testable hypothesis, but we'd have to be gathering the data.

1[anonymous]9yI'm all in favour of that. [http://lesswrong.com/lw/eic/how_about_testing_our_ideas/]
2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey

Ah. I took the explicit rules for section 7 and my natural tendencies and didn't pick up on the intent for section 8 until it was too late.

1RobinZ9yI didn't notice that, there - that's probably a significant flaw in the methodology.
2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey

I took the survey. Skipped out at the "unreasonably long" section. Will it handle things properly if I return to it another day?

Note, if you ask me question that I can look up in two seconds flat, and the next question is "without checking sources, assess the probability of the last answer being correct" then I'm not sure you're going to get the results you're looking for. I consider the Internet as part of my partly trustable memory that I reference when I want to achieve success in the world I.e. all the time - but its not clear that's a commonly held opinion.

6RobinZ9yAs a general rule, when taking surveys to test your knowledge, I believe you are supposed to not look up anything unless specifically instructed. It's like crossword puzzles in that way.
Dealing with trolling and the signal to noise ratio

Hmmm. My unease with this idea would be entirely resolved if the upvotes were cached until the user reached 1000 karma rather than merely prohibited/lost.

Consider EYs article on how we fail to co-operate; I'd like to be able to stand-up and say "yes, more of this please". I don't mind at all if the effect of that upvoting is delayed but if I reach 1000 karma I don't expect to find the energy to go back over all the old threads to up vote those I liked in the past - so in that world my expression of support will be forever missing.

That said, som... (read more)

0[anonymous]9yThe thing is your early up votes and down votes are probably different than your later ones.
Welcome to Less Wrong! (July 2012)

Hello everyone

I've been lurking here for a while now but I thought it was about time I said "Hi".

I found Less Wrong through HPMOR, which I read even though I never read Rowling's books.

I'm currently working my way through the Sequences at a few a day. I'm about 30% through the 2006-2010 collection, and I can heartily recommend reading them in time order and on something like Kindle on your iPhone. ciphergoth's version suited me quite well. I've been making notes as I go along and sooner or later there'll be a huge set of comments and queries ar... (read more)

Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality

Box B is already empty or already full [and will remain the same after I've picked it]

Do I have to believe that statement is completely and utterly true for this to be a meaningful exercise? It seems to me that I should treat that as dubious.

It seems to me that Omega is achieving a high rate of success by some unknown good method. If I believe Omega's method is a hard-to-detect remote-controlled money vaporisation process then clearly I should one-box.

A super intelligence has many ways to get the results it wants.

I am inclined to think that I don't kno... (read more)