# All of dutchie's Comments + Replies

Open thread, Oct. 26 - Nov. 01, 2015

I'm not sure whether this is worth a whole post on its own or not, but I've been wondering about X-risk, particularly the utilitarian/EA justification of donating to charities dedicated to reducing its risk, and how it seems similar to Pascal's mugging. Perhaps I'm just rationalising my unwillingness to donate to charities with hazier benefits than mosquito nets, but I'd like to discuss it with the community.

As I understand it, in Pascal's mugging, Pascal is walking down the street when a mugger comes up to him and says "Give me £100 or I'll torture 3... (read more)

0CellBioGuy6yhttp://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9124145/effective-altruism-global-ai [http://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9124145/effective-altruism-global-ai]
3Luke_A_Somers6yPascal's mugging applies when the sheer magnitude of the benefit is a substitute for any argument that the benefit is actually likely. X-risk charities typically are of the form, "This probability is small but nonvanishing because Y, and Z. When you multiply it out, the big benefit makes the expected gain large despite the attenuating factor". Some go further and argue that the probability is not small. None simply rely on the magnitude of the benefit without also arguing for plausibility.

Most people who donate to Xrisk charities consider the probability a lot higher than a person saying "Give me £100 or I'll torture 3^^^3 consciousnesses in the simulation I have in my pocket" to speak the truth.

I'm the other person planning to be there! Will probably be arriving around 6:15 and staying for as long as people are still around. Feel free to PM me for a phone number or Telegram @jshholland if you get lost or need directions!

Find someone to talk to thread

There is already a #lw-support on freenode.

Predict - "Log your predictions" app

It's a Moto X (2nd gen) with Android 5.1, so not particularly low-end. It is most obvious if I slide only just fast enough for the inertia to take it between tabs, then it appears to get confused as to which one is highlighted at the crossover point.

Predict - "Log your predictions" app

I like it! Thoughts from 30 seconds of playing around:

• There's some flickering in the text of the tabs while swiping between them.
• What is the difference between a "Yes" and a "No" prediction?
• Long presses are not particularly discoverable; perhaps there should be some buttons when you tap a prediction to expand it in the list view.

Design-wise, it's great apart from that. Both of your proposed features would be worthwhile too.

0Gust6yThanks! * I'm not getting the flickering here... are you on a low-end device? Which version of android are you on? * No difference at all. I just thought it would make sense to phrase the predictions in the form of questions and answers - so you could e.g. pick a question from a pre-made list and just choose your answer. * Good to know, I thought "long press to edit" was a common enough pattern that everybody would discover it.