All of ElMonstro's Comments + Replies

4PeterMcCluskey1y
You can short VIX futures. Shorting VXX is a bit like shorting VIX, often better.
2jmh1y
This might be of some help understanding the instrument. In general if you sell a call you're saying you don't expect the price of the asset to increase (to the strike or above). If you buy a put you are saying you expect the price to go down. Both of these are bets on "short" side in a sense. The obvious difference is that selling the call costs you nothing up front but could expose you to a larger loss if the prices do spike up. Buying the put costs you the purchase price but after than you will not be exposed to any additional risks. I think the claim by Zohar, "If you want outsized returns you need to take large risks." is either wrong or poorly stated. Clearly one can make great returns -- 50%, 100% and more -- buying puts and know exactly what you are risking which might be a relatively small monetary amount.
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)

I think you are mostly correct, especially regarding the 10% profits tax and the 5% withdrawal tax. But I just made $6k (on invested value of $20k) by betting on swing states, both pro and against Trump.

The Upper Midwest swing states seemed like easy money and were mispriced, according to FiveThirtyEight. I also won with bets on SC and TX for Trump: I got the SC bets at 85%. Even considering fees, that means 8.5% for two months. This seems like absurdly easy money to me.  I got greedy and bet on FL and OH and lost there, or my winnings would have been... (read more)

Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)

I think you are mostly correct, especially regarding the 10% profits tax and the 5% withdrawal tax. But I just made $6k (on invested value of $20k) by betting on swing states, both pro and against Trump.

The Upper Midwest swing states seemed like easy money and were mispriced, according to FiveThirtyEight. I also won with bets on SC and TX for Trump: I got the SC bets at 85%. Even considering fees, that means 8.5% for two months. This seems like absurdly easy money to me.  I got greedy and bet on FL and OH and lost there, or my winnings would have been... (read more)