All of Erhannis's Comments + Replies

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem

"When you are finished reading this, you will see Bayesian problems in your dreams."

Whaddaya know; he was right.

Also, yes the other version (on Arbital) is better, with more information - though this one has a point or two that aren't in the other version, like the discussion of degrees of freedom.

RFC: COVID-19 Statistical Guilt

Ah, thanks; that looks pretty relevant. I'll try to read it in the next day or so.

RFC: COVID-19 Statistical Guilt

Yeah, and it would also cut out close contact with a number of people. It's actually looking pretty likely the second of the mentioned alternatives will happen (assuming I go at all) - it's possible I'll stay at home with an immediate family member, rather than go to Utah. This reduces my close contact from ~20 people (in ~4 families) down to like 3 people (1 family), and should significantly reduce the odds of my catching it. I started writing a huge response, but moved it into an update.

Become a person who Actually Does Things

I think my own spin on the incorrectness of the article would be, I think some forms of procrastination and laziness are valuable. Sweeping every day will only make the floor so clean. Some tasks truly DO go away if you ignore them long enough.

...But overall, I do firmly agree with the intent of your article.

Become a person who Actually Does Things

It's surprisingly hard to consciously notice a bad thing as being a solvable problem, I agree. I will once in a while notice that I've been inconvenienced by X for a long time, but only now am I actively aware of it as a discrete entity. It's a skill I think would be particularly worth learning/improving.

Similarly, with opportunities - this has happened a couple times in my life, but the first I remember was that beforehand, I would hear about people volunteering at animal shelters, and I'd think "that sounds nice/fun"...end... (read more)

1Neel Nanda9moI think the ideal here is to be able to reflexively notice in the moment "this is bad and I should fix it", and then actually doing something about it. But this is really hard to consistently pull off. For me, a major bottleneck is that it takes a lot of attention and willpower to do this reliably in the moment. I've found that I can get a long way by systematising it - creating a regular time when I dwell on "what opportunities am I currently procrastinating about?" Or "what is a low level inconvenience that I'm not doing anything about?". I find a weekly review is a great time to go through questions like that. I find this really, really helpful, because it's easy to make something like that a routine, and it takes much less willpower than being agenty in the moment. And it also makes it easier to track things when they happen, because I can notice and make a note, and put in the actual effort to fix it during the weekly review
The Hidden Complexity of Wishes

This is my objection to the conclusion of the post: yes, you're unlikely to be able to patch all the leaks, but the more leaks you patch, the less likely it is that a bad solution occurs. The way the Device was described was such that "things happen, and time is reset until a solution occurs". This favors probable things over improbable things, since probable things will more likely happen before improbable things. If you add caveats - mother safe, whole, uninjured, mentally sound, low velocity - at some point the "right" soluti... (read more)