All of eshear's Comments + Replies

Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments

Unfortunately, GPAs can lie. You cannot be certain of the quality of the problems and evaluation that was averaged to produce the GPA. So running your own test of known difficulty works well to verify what you see on the resume.

For example, I have to hire programmers. We give all incoming programmers a few relatively easy programming problems as part of the interview process because we've found that no matter what the resume says, it's possible that they actually do not know how to program.

Good resume + good interview result is a much stronger indicator than good resume alone.

0tenshiko11yA significant problem is the weighting of certain courses, particularly Advanced Placement ones. A GPA of 3.7, seeming quite respectable to the unaware, can be obtained by work of quality 83%, and that's assuming the class didn't offer extra credit.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 5

My guess is that it is Felix Felicis, liquid luck. It's golden, which matches the description, and it provides a reasonable false explanation for how the invaders were able to break Bella out of prison. It throws you on the trail of a master potion maker, instead of the truth.

1Desrtopa11yIt seems probable that Quirrelmort is himself a master potion maker, in addition to the rest of his skill set. He's able to make the resurrection potion, after all, which is likely a difficult feat.
4marchdown11yBut wouldn't actually using Felix Felicis be even more effective?