All of Florian Habermacher's Comments + Replies

The Best Software For Every Need

Great!

+ helps prevent clogging my gcalendar when I abuse of if for similar purpose

- so far only on android, no win desktop/browser interface (?)

The value of low-conscientiousness people on teams

Easy to find possible evolutionary advantages in many traits, but often a simpler story fits just as well: random imperfection & variation. Here maybe too!

Some people are much less pretty than others (say, judged by the opinion of most). Any advantage from this diversity? Straightforward explanation (although diversity-benefit stories might easily be found too): it may just be variation, despite the regularly even very large costs to those on the lower tail of the distribution. Evolution would clearly like to get it right for us, but sometimes just doe... (read more)

adamzerner's Shortform

Not answering your main point, but small note on the "leaving out very" point: I've enjoyed McCloskey's writing on writing. She calls the phenomenon "elegant variation" (I don't know whether this is her only) and also teaches we have to get rid of this unhelpful practice that we get thought in school.

3Dagon7moThanks! I always upvote McClosky references - one of the underappreciated writers/thinkers on topics of culture and history.
Am I anti-social if I get vaccinated now?

Very kind Adam; sadly undeserved here! The possibility only struck me once I had a selfish reason to not take a vaccine for now, so we could also just congratulate some half-conscious process for being reasonably successful in trying to save my self-esteem in this particular instance, oopsie ;-).

Am I anti-social if I get vaccinated now?

Good points! On 1.: Partly agree. But maybe the world is a bit more dynamic; at least until very recently I think I read from new supply agreements; not sure it was the last one to be in the near future.

On 2.: I think it hinges not least upon the exact interpretation of (say, lower) vaccination numbers by the officials: "more to vaccinate still, let's ensure we have enough doses in the coming months", or "not all seem to be willing to get vaccinated, we won't need so many doses in the next round either". I the latter case, I could see 'my' not-vaccinating ... (read more)

Am I anti-social if I get vaccinated now?

Thanks, I could see there being some truth in what you write. On the other hand: the value of the marginal vaccine in the region is very strongly affected by, e.g., (i) the presence of unvaccinated high-risk people, and (ii) the likelihood of having excess hospitalizations that cannot be treated properly and lead to death. Both of these, afaik, exists in some poor countries, but are now very rare/not acutely foreseen in my place.

steven0461's Shortform Feed

Adding to your first point: Or they don't make arguments simply because - even if strong and in the absence of social costs - it does not pay.

(I think of the example of some policy debates where I know tons of academics who could easily provide tons of very strong, rather obvious arguments, that are essentially not made because none seems to care getting involved)

steven0461's Shortform Feed

I paint a stylized case of some type of situation where the question arises, and where my gut feeling tells me it may often be better to release the argument than to hide it, for the sake of long-term social cohesion and advancement:

You're part of an intellectual elite, with their own values/biases, and you consider hiding a sensible argument (say, on a political topic) because commoners, given their separate values/biases, would risk to act to it in a way that goes counter your agenda. You might likely not release the argument thus.

In the long-run this ca... (read more)

Electric heat pumps (Mini-Splits) vs Natural gas boilers

Few random thoughts from an energy economist; might be of some interest to you Steven and the odd reader:

  1. Your COP assumptions seem very reasonable indeed I think.
  2. I'm an energy engineer & economist studying practical energy and power systems. I see bias towards heat pumps all over the world, even in places where marginal implied GHG emissions with heat pumps seem higher than when directly heating with gas.
  3. Do many heat-pump people you talk about have PV panels on the roof? Given tariff asymmetries between feeding-in and drawing power locally to/from the
... (read more)
Often, enemies really are innately evil.

While I find much of the post not good evidence of a large share of adult people being mean, I did experience multiple times adults being arbitrarily mean in situations with no apparent reason at all - while I believe most people are innately somewhat good, I agree there is a significant share of them being evil to random strangers for really no apparent reason at all.

Different point, probably not the most crucial point here but: In these prisoners-dilemma/public-good behavioral games, I always wonder whether the results are affected by the fact that parti... (read more)

steven0461's Shortform Feed

Nordhaus seems to miss the point here, indeed. He does statistics purely on historic macro-economic data. In these, there could not be even a hint of the singularity we'd here talk about - and that also he seems to refer to in his abstract (imho). This core singularity effect of self-accelerating, nearly infinitely fast intelligence improvement, once a threshold is crossed, is almost by definition invisible in present data: Only after this singularity, we expect things to get weird, and visible in economic data.

Bit sad to see the paper as is. Nordhaus... (read more)

My guide to lifelogging

Great starting point for the technical side, thanks. I'd be very keen on insights about navigating the social space while life-logging.

Bayesian examination

Love the idea. Questionnaires would often also benefit from being organized this way. Dozens of times I wanted to help people by filling in their questionnaire but had no good option to convey where I'm sure and where I really can barely say anything specific.