Instead of real-time directional data, could you improve your sense of direction with training? Something like: estimate North, pull out phone and check, score your estimate, iterate. I imagine this could rapidly be mastered for your typical locations, such that you no longer need to pull out your phone at all.
"searching for groups to join that are at least adjacent to my interests." Why limit it even to these? To extend your analogy: if you're about to fall over dead from starvation, you'd accept most any food.
Common hardship is great for quickly cementing group relationships. You could volunteer time at a charity that will throw together a random group of people at sweaty, repetitive work for an afternoon. You could join a sports team and coalesce around hatred of your rivals.
Let's cut to the reforms, listed below with their headers.
The other responses are absolutely correct. If they clarified things for you, great! However, you indicated that your intuition wasn't getting you to the correct answer, so let's try to formulate these into a new intuition.
You are starting along a path from left to right. The left side is where you started, and way over on the right side are different outcomes. The 'chances' you mention above are forks in the path, and you are taking each path with some probability.
At the first fork there are two paths, one in which A happened and one in which A did not. T...
Is it better to be a bigger fish in a small pond or to be a member of the most dignified pond? It probably depends on how exactly the above analogy breaks down.
Perhaps the better way to cut these different conclusions is whether competition is within-group or versus other groups.
The link in source 2 appears to be broken:
2National Sleep Foundation. (2011, March 7). Annual Sleep in America Poll Exploring Connections with Communications Technology Use and Sleep. Retrieved August 17, 2011, from http://www.sleepfoundation.org/article/press-release/annual-sleep-america-poll- exploring-connections-communications-technology-use-.
I don't know of Sam Altman, so maybe this criticism is wrong, but the quote: "If you join a company, my general advice is to join a company on a breakout trajectory. There are a usually a handful of these at a time, and they are usually identifiable to a smart young person." Absent any guides on how to identify breakout trajectory companies, this advice seems unhelpful. It feels like: "Didn't work for you? You must not have been a smart young person or you would have picked the right company."
Paired with the paragraph below on not lett...
Chemistry so far. Control theory next.
I had weighed at most 200 and at least 150 pounds since 2007. I set my target at 175 pounds as a 5'10" male.
Absolutely, but I decided that I could not justify it. I travel for work and would prefer not to have the extra weight and space of it.
I have habitually recorded my weight since February of this year.
This is great because historically "paying attention to my weight" has lead to the desired weight-loss.
Recently I moved beyond reading about Spaced Repetition to actually downloading Anki and creating some notes.
Is there any way you could give yourself a precommitment? You said you want to pass the Chinese proficiency exam by 2017; can you take the time/money to register for it now, ahead of time? If you know that you are already on the hook to take the test "January 16th at 3pm" you would be motivated to not waste that investment.
I have been using Duolingo to learn Spanish. However, I also struggled with practicing as much/as frequently as I wanted. I started minding it using Beeminder's data integration, which has so far kept me consistent.
I think what...
I have no idea which of the below are true, or to what extent: 1) They're not off-putting to everyone; you are not the target audience 2) Being off-putting is valuable, as decreasing voter turnout benefits their strategy 3) Being off-putting does not matter, as they remain effective regardless 4a) No one is checking if these are effective 4b) The people who DO check if these are effective have a vested interest in showing they are
If no one is gathering data on the effectiveness, then the next best strategy is to copy your competitor.