All of GuySrinivasan's Comments + Replies

Announcing Encultured AI: Building a Video Game

Brandon has been a professional game developer since 1998, starting his career at Epic Games with engineering and design on Unreal Tournament and Unreal Engine 1.0. More recently, Brandon spent 12 years at Valve wearing (and inventing) hats. Many, many hats… Brandon has spent considerable amounts of time in development and leadership on Team Fortress 2 and Dota 2 where he wrote mountains of code and pioneered modern approaches to game development. Also an advisor for the Makers Fund family of companies, Brandon offers his expertise to game startups at all stages of growth.

Dwarves & D.Sci: Data Fortress

"The previously observed drop off in the value of additional miners after 5 seem to occur because it makes it less likely for other valuable types to be present, not because it is intrinsically bad."

My go-to check when there's decent data is to compare P(something | N miners, M dwarves) to P(something | N-1 miners, M-1 dwarves).

Dwarves & D.Sci: Data Fortress

Miners: 5
Smiths: 1
Woodcutters: 1
Farmers: 2
Brewers: 1
Warriors: 2
Crafters: 1

I expect to survive: in the Light Forest, 2 Farmers and 2 Warriors seem necessary for good odds and also sufficient for great odds. I suspect the Brewer is not needed, except that obviously the Brewer is needed. I expect my profits are not maximized without some rearrangement; I didn't try to account for which resources were present much at all.

I did not know any specifics. I did think it was worth my time start skimming because I have another interesting problem vaguely related; then I thought it was worth my time to understand what the objection buried under the word salad (yes, Benjamin, it's word salad) might be, because it seemed like there might actually be one. And there was! Standard lambda calculus at face value doesn't work with nonconstructive proofs. That's interesting and I didn't know it. Then:

[Googles]

as expected, looks like there's plenty of work on this, and there's nothing actua... (read more)

[Googles] Why does something like https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.05433.pdf not resolve things? Is it simply wrong? Is it not actually applicable?

A program for the full axiom of choice

The theory of classical realizability is a framework for the Curry-Howard correspondence which enables to associate a program with each proof in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. But, almost all the applications of mathematics in physics, probability, statistics, etc. use Analysis i.e. the axiom of dependent choice (DC) or even the (full) axiom of choice (AC). It is therefore important

... (read more)
1Benjamin J21d
No, I do not think it is wrong. It says it enables to associate a program with each proof in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. You can also, in principle associate a program to each value of the busy beaver function, or even uncountably many of them (for example for each value of the BB function a complex-valued function that based of the square of the value of the BB function as a constant in each of the complex-valued functions of each value). Even though you cannot compute the values of the busy beaver function. That means you can associate programs to uncomputable functions, like the function of definition. I can also associate a program to X = ?; for example rand(60). That however assumes that the natural number in question is a constant, which as I said above does not logically follow from the instruction of choosing one natural number. You can logically instruct something, and do something different. That is not a contradiction in terms of logic. But as I said above that program would not compute X, it would merely be associated to X, which is a different notion. For example I can associate the BB function to X, but that does not make X computable, and indeed the opposite follows, as X could have the values of the BB function, which is proven to not be computable. So X could be not computable, and as it could be not computable, it is uncomputable in this context, as the question is if you can compute X without first defining it, which you cannot. Once you defined X=3, you can of course program a computer to deduce X=3, but that happens after the definition, and is not the definition of X in this context (which was asked to be done by a person) but a computational replication of an earlier definition, which is still a definition but not a choice, or even the acknowledgement that there is a choice between choice and no choice (meaning just saying X=Y which is a bit of a non-choice in this context but still valid). You can find programs for axioms, like if have

You know you're arguing with a psychedelic-abusing schizophrenic who sees things, right? (Haven't you been online long enough to recognize the very distinctive wordsalad & exclusively verbal style of argumentation, or the free association & redefining in his comments while ignoring widely-accepted physics about spacetime?) Seems like a waste of time, IMO.

Unifying Bargaining Notions (1/2)

I now agree with you. Or possibly with a steelmanned you, who can say. ;)

This is why I was stressing that "chaa" and "fair" are very different concepts, and that this equilibrium notion is very much based on threats. They just need to be asymmetric threats that the opponent can't defuse in order to work (or ways of asymmetrically benefiting yourself that your opponent can't ruin, that'll work just as well).

(from the next post in this sequence https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RZNmNwc9SxdKayeQh/unifying-bargaining-notions-2-2)

and

in physical reality, payoffs o

... (read more)
Unifying Bargaining Notions (1/2)

A better example might be literally paying for something while in a marketplace you're not going to visit again. You don't have much cash, you do have barter items. Barter what you've got, compensate for the difference. Cooperative is "yes a trade is good", competitive is "but where on the possibility list of acceptable barters will we land"?

I guess the difficulty is that the example really does want to say "all games can be decomposed like this if they're denominated, not just games that sound kind of like cash", but any game without significant reputational/relationship effects is gonna sound kind of like cash.

Unifying Bargaining Notions (1/2)

Maybe a side note to not forget outside-of-game considerations? But I'm perfectly fine reading about 4/3 pi r^3 without "don't forget that actually things have densities that are never uniform and probably hard to measure and also gravity differs in different locations and in fact you almost certainly have an ellipsoid or something even more complicated instead", and definitely prefer a world that can present it simply without having to take into account everything in the real world you'd actually have to account for when using the formula in a broader context.

3Dagon23d
Ok, downvoted for that enough that I should just shut up. But I learn slowly. These aren't outside considerations. Future interactions (or, I guess, highly-suspicious superrational shared-causality) are the primary driver for any non-Nash outcome. Use of these examples is more misleading than the canonical frictionless uniform spherical elephant, and even for that, every book or professor is VERY clear about the limitations of the simple equation. I'm a huge fan of the research and exploration of this kind of game theory. But without really understanding the VERY limiting assumptions behind it, it's going to be very misleading.
Ars D&D.Sci: Mysteries of Mana Evaluation & Ruleset

The exact mechanism would have been pretty tricky to figure out

I was getting close. :) Had I spent 3x as long, I probably would have gotten it. Where I left off:

  • convinced it was very likely to be a repeated exchange from HP=X to HP=0, and thought the exact HP number would be static and "nice"
  • leaning heavily toward turn-based rather than simultaneous
  • had thought of a small handful of possible ways "damage" could be happening, one of which was this exact mechanism (convinced of x0 and x2 because Pokemon/etc)
  • plotted calibration curves for potential mechanisms

T... (read more)

Ars D&D.sci: Mysteries of Mana

Seeing if I can figure out how duels work, now. First guess is not correct: that mages pick an offensive spell and defensive spell at random, then calculate damage, and whoever hits for more, wins; damage is determined by for each offensive element, taking the mana level, reducing it by half the mana levels of the defensive elements, adjusting defensive x2 if element opposes and x0 if element is the same, summing the two results.

I need more randomness, maybe; my calibration curve looks decent, but overconfident at both ends. In particular this predicts cer

... (read more)
Ars D&D.sci: Mysteries of Mana

Wondering about:

Are mana levels actually normalized to 150 total, or is that an effect of our measurement/prediction process?

How do duels actually work? They could be as simple as "add up mana values of elements on offense, modify defense mana values according to effectiveness, subtract; compare results; higher wins" or much more complicated like bucketizing mana levels, choosing a random person to attack first, choosing a random attack and a random defense, doing [something like the simple one] to determine damage, switch attackers, repeat until someone has taken X damage, also wizards have native attack/defense/elemental bonuses, also wizards have different HP so X1 and X2 not just X".

2GuySrinivasan1mo
Ars D&D.sci: Mysteries of Mana

Half the spells are for offense, half for defense. A wizard never goes to a duel with pure offense or pure defense prepared.

As per other spoilers, Dark is an element, elements come in anti-correlated pairs, and total mana level is 150.

Each spell has elemental affinities that make sense. For example, Fireball works better with high levels of Fire and Air mana and Abyssal works better with high levels of Water and Dark mana. (3C2)*(2^2)=12.

Offensive and defensive spells' affinities are divided "fairly".

Something lets weaker-mana spells win sometimes. It look

... (read more)
2GuySrinivasan1mo
Carrying the Torch: A Response to Anna Salamon by the Guild of the Rose

One of the many common Curses of Smart is being hypercompetent at a couple of tricks that you've adopted to be passably effective at life while being incredibly blind to your own limitations and bad habits.

 

Just want to drop a note here that this curse (a) got me through years of major depression, making me, I guess, "high-functioning", and (b) caused the worst interpersonal crisis I've had-or-expect-to-have in my life.

For me it wasn't really a trick, per se. Just, more like... being smart enough allows you to simply brute force a bunch of areas witho... (read more)

4moridinamael1mo
This sort of thing is so common that I would go so far as to say is the norm, rather than the exception. Our proposed antidote to this class of problem is to attend the monthly Level Up Sessions [https://guildoftherose.org/workshops/level-up-session], and simply making a habit of regularly taking inventory of the bugs (problems and inefficiencies) in your day-to-day life and selectively solving the most crucial ones. This approach starts from the mundane and eventually builds up your environment and habits, until eventually you're no longer relying entirely on your "tricks."
Let's See You Write That Corrigibility Tag

Welp. I decided to do this, and here it is. I didn't take nearly enough screenshots. Some large percent of this is me writing things, some other large percent is me writing things as if I thought the outputs of OpenAI's Playground were definitely something that should be extracted/summarized/rephrased, and a small percentage is verbatim text-continuation outputs. Virtually no attempts were made to document my process. I do not endorse this as useful and would be perfectly fine if it were reign of terror'd away, though IMO it might be interesting to compare... (read more)

What's it like to have sex with Duncan?

(I of course told my partners up front that a public essay was one possible outcome of the survey and that I would not-publish anything they flagged as private.)

On A List of Lethalities

flunked out

Gonna guess zero. Much less costly to leave 'em in for 12 weeks for goodwill than to try to remove people in that timeframe.

pre-selected for

Good point. Probably at least some of this. You need referrals, and I was definitely not the smartest of the people in my reference class available to refer, though maybe 3rd, and someone looking at me versus the one I know definitely had more-raw-IQ should definitely have guessed that I was more likely to pick up that particular thing.

On A List of Lethalities

It's also possible I'm someone "amenable" to this mindset and that was just the "on switch". DSP, by the way.

But yeah I could see a post on... cryptanalysis, and finding and minimizing attack surfaces, without necessarily having an attack in mind, and a hindsight-view story of what first caused me to think in that way.

2tadrinth2mo
I'd be interested to know how many people flunked out of that internship because they couldn't pick it up, and to what extent people were pre-selected for the internship based on some estimate of their ability to pick it up.
On A List of Lethalities

Security mindset seems highly related, and the training thing here seems like it shouldn’t be that hard? Certainly it seems very easy compared to the problem the trained people will then need to solve, and I think Eliezer has de facto trained me a substantial amount in this skill through examples over the years. There was a time I didn’t have security mindset at all, and now I have at least some such mindset, and some ability to recognize lethal issues others are missing. He doesn’t say how many other people he knows who have the abilities referred to here

... (read more)

I notice that I am extremely surprised by your internship training. Its existence, its lessons and the impact it had on you (not you specifically, just a person who didn't come in with that mindset) are all things I don't think I would have predicted. I would be thrilled if you would write as much as you can bring yourself to about this, braindump format is fine, into a top level post!

D&D.Sci June 2022 Evaluation and Ruleset

I spent all of my time trying to figure out how to figure out how much [the hidden variable causing the correlation between nerd and otaku] affects trait choices and winrates.

Apparently they are correlated without a relevant hidden variable. :D

2GuySrinivasan2mo
But in general I liked the setup a lot!
AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

I don't understand why it's plausible to think that AI's might collectively have different goals than humans.

Future posts, right? We're assuming that premise here:

So, for what follows, let's proceed from the premise: "For some weird reason, humans consistently design AI systems (with human-like research and planning abilities) that coordinate with each other to try and overthrow humanity." Then what? What follows will necessarily feel wacky to people who find this hard to imagine, but I think it's worth playing along, because I think "we'd be in trouble if this happened" is a very important point.

AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

I'm not talking (yet) about whether, or why, AIs might attack human civilization. That's for future posts.

Who models the models that model models? An exploration of GPT-3's in-context model fitting ability

This was a fantastic idea and I am more interested in model interpretability for understanding these results than any I have seen in a while. In particular any examples of nontrivial mesa-optimizers we can find in the wild seem important to study, and maybe there's one here.

Stephen Wolfram's ideas are under-appreciated

I think the problem is that Wolfram wrote things up in a manner indistinguishable from a perpetual-motion-believer-who-actually-can-write-well's treatise. Maybe it's instead legit, but to discover that you have to spend a lot of translation effort, translation effort that Wolfram was supposed to have done himself in digestible chunks rather than telling N=lots of people to each do it themselves, and it's not even clear there is something at the heart because (last time I checked which was a couple years ago) no physics-knowledgable people who dived in seem... (read more)

1Kenny2mo
I think it's fine if someone else does the work to "break his work down into actually digestible concrete chunks" for the benefit of other academics. My naive outsider impression of physics is that, at least on the theoretical side, basically no one really knows what the promising avenues to pursue might be. Having just read his post about the writing of the book (NKS), I'm hopeful that he will, eventually, publish a 'bibliography' that does a better job of translating the book, and its voluminous notes, into a form that's 'more accessible' to the relevant academics.
What board games would you recommend?

Ah yes. Space Alert. An incredibly good co-op game with rather a lot of depth if you play with the same group many many times.

1MondSemmel2mo
... and one I couldn't get my family to play with me (past one session or two) because they're allergic to games with time pressure :(.
What board games would you recommend?

Jaipur - best quick strategic 2p game I know of; hand management, risk assessment, heuristic position evaluation.

Codenames - very good mix of cooperation, competition, other-mind-modeling, cleverness, not-being-too-clever, different levels of engagement, even trolling. Two teams of 2+ people apiece. Can be problematic for ESL. Word association, risk management.

Werewords - best quick party game that's not boring that I know of. A cross between Werewolf and 20 questions. Bluffing, language, social deduction.

Goa - most interesting economics of any game I've e... (read more)

1Yiar2mo
Mage Knight has an excellent steam workshop mod for Tabletop Simulator which I highly recommend! 🙂 Automates some things so you can focus on the most fun strategy. Amazing 1-player game, but also fun at 2-players.
D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves Evaluation & Ruleset

it's just much harder than I expected to make deductions like that

This is something I noticed from some earlier .scis! I forget which, now. My hypothesis was that finding underlying unmentioned causes was really hard without explicitly using causal machinery in your exploration process, and I don't know how to, uh, casually set up causal inference, and it's something I would love to try learning at some point. Like, my intuition is something akin to "try a bunch of autogenerated causal graphs, see if something about correlations says [these] could work and... (read more)

D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves Evaluation & Ruleset

If you might have played it but decided not to, what drove you away?

I set up the same kind of thing that abstractapplic did:

I created a sub-df for each province, reset their indices, then recombined; and for "does this predict that with a lag of N years?" investigations, I shifted one of the sub-dfs back by N before recombining.

then bounced off because while I had decent ideas of what I wanted to look for, I never got excited enough to get past the activation energy of trying to look for it.

My guesses about why include:

  • creating pretty plots was harder and
... (read more)
Quadratic voting with automatic collusion?

I've been noodling on an example, and did notice this kind of problem. Currently working on what would happen if collusion was limited to vote trades between pairs of issues you directionally agree on. So only "I vote +1 puppy, +2 frog; you vote +2 puppy, +1 frog; we transform into +1.58 puppy, +1.58 frog apiece".

What is being improved in recursive self improvement?

0. How accurate is it? 1-4 all seem to be about how fast we can get the answer to a problem that a certain algorithm would give, including by using a new algorithm to get to the same answer. But it's also (maybe primarily more) important to get a better answer.

1Conor Sullivan4mo
Yes, and that gets into another aspect of my skepticism about AI risk. More thinking is not necessarily better thinking. EDIT: I just realized that I'm the one who is smuggling in this assumption that RSI refers to speed improvements. So I guess the deeper question is, where does more and/or better come from? And, if we're talking about better, how does the AGI know what better is?
Quadratic voting with automatic collusion?

a specific worked example

Yep that's my next step if no one "just knows" or links to a paper. :D

I was thinking about enforced trades, more votes for the same price (fractional is allowed).

Design, Implement and Verify

We're probably talking past each other. I'm saying "no you don't get to build lots of general AIs in the process of solving the alignment problem and still stay alive" and (I think) you're saying "no you don't get to solve the alignment problem without writing a ton of code, lots of it highly highly related to AI". I think both of those are true.

2rwallace4mo
Right, yes, I'm not suggesting the iterated coding activity can or should include 'build an actual full-blown superhuman AGI' as an iterated step.
Design, Implement and Verify

There is a massive difference between a technique not working and a technique being way less likely to work.

A: 1% chance of working given that we get to complete it, doesn't kill everyone before completing

B: 10% chance of working given that we get to complete it, 95% chance of killing everyone before completing

You pick A here. You can't just ignore the "implement step produces disaster" bit. Maybe we're not in this situation (obviously it changes based on what the odds of each bit actually are), but you can't just assume we're not in this situation and say "Ah, well, B has a much higher chance of working than A, so that's all, we've gotta go with B".

2rwallace4mo
Are you advocating as option A, 'deduce a full design by armchair thought before implementing anything'? The success probability of that isn't 1%. It's zero, to as many decimal places as makes no difference.
Design, Implement and Verify

The contention is that we are in a new situation. Writing software is a new type of activity with different constraints than building a bridge; creating a general AI is a new type of activity with different constraints than writing software. In particular, the standard "waterfall doesn't work, agile/iteration is far better" solution to writing software is contended to fail when creating a general AI, specifically because the implement step produces disaster without sufficient design, rather than simply producing failure or waste.

You can argue that we're no... (read more)

9rwallace4mo
My argument is not that AI is the same activity as writing a compiler or a search engine or an accounts system, but that it is not an easier activity, so techniques that we know don't work for other kinds of software – like trying to deduce everything by armchair thought, verify after-the-fact the correctness of an arbitrarily inscrutable blob, or create the end product by throwing lots of computing power at a brute force search procedure – will not work for AI, either.
Rationalist Should Win. Not Dying with Dignity and Funding WBE.

It is very unclear that generally humans are unlike Stalin. Maybe! But most humans have far too little power to reveal their preferences-with-lots-of-power. And we seem to have sayings like "power corrupts", but it's not at all clear to me whether power corrupts, only the corrupt can gain power, or power simply reveals.

Don't die with dignity; instead play to your outs

100% this.

In poker or MtG you can often actually figure out your outs.

Even in games with just a bit more complexity (yes, in certain ways MtG is very simple) it can be very very hard to know what your outs really are. And if one of your outs is "actually the next few turns will not be as devastating as I think they will", then almost all versions of playing to your outs will be worse than playing for generic-looking EV.

Same with life. Don't play to your outs until and unless you're extremely sure you've modeled the world well enough to know what ALL of you... (read more)

3Jeffrey Ladish4mo
I agree finding your outs is very hard, but I don't think this is actually a different challenge than increasing "dignity". If you don't have a map to victory, then you probably lose. I expect that in most worlds where we win, some people figured out some outs and played to them.
You get one story detail

I am applying this principle to good effect right now, prepping a lightning talk. It allowed me to easily figure out which pieces of my 6-7 minute talk to discard to go down to 3-4 minutes, and also that a certain piece needed reworking to fit the single narrative rather than bringing in thoroughly interesting detail that needs to stay in the appendix.

Duels & D.Sci March 2022: Evaluation and Ruleset

I enjoyed this one a lot! It was simple enough to inspire educated guesses about how the system worked, but complex enough that probably no exact values would be forthcoming. Intuitions from similar games ported pretty well. I was "coerced" into writing some fun code. Thank you for explicitly stating the random nature of the dataset's decks, I think this particular challenge would have been worse if we needed to try to model [something] about that, too.

Becoming a Staff Engineer

Fundamentally I think good writing is about having enough cognitive empathy for your audience to understand what you need to say in order to generate the desired thoughts in their minds.

This is what I need to work on most.

I have had several important ideas which took literally years to really get acted on (proving out that they were important, incidentally) and I'm almost certain it is because I don't have a lot of skill at overcoming the inferential distance that was (in retrospect) a huge blocker to communication, and partially, that's because I wasn't r... (read more)

Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!

Likes Dragon ramp pretty well in general. My best guesses are that:
- I've got bugs (90%)
- Networks are hard to fit (60%)
- Angels appear to do well because if you can ramp into them that's good but also they are friendly with some other pieces, that you don't actually want to have? (25%).

1Measure5mo
Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!

I have completed the modeling I'm going to do.

I built a NN from scratch! That was fun. It probably has bugs. It has a deck eval with leaky ReLU and (12, 6, 4) arch. Two of those feed into a deck vs deck eval with (8, 3, 1) arch and a sigmoid output.

This NN loves Dragon ramp, it seems. I mean not loves loves, it thinks the best ramp still only beats our rival ~60% of the time.

New PvE deck:

Dragon: 4x (this is a Dragon ramp deck)
Emperor: 2x (with even more top end)
Lotus: 6x (how to ramp)

1Measure5mo
Mental nonsense: my anti-insomnia trick

At the same time, I let myself visualize nonsense images. My visual imagination isn't very vivid, and I don't try to create any specific images. It's nothing more than a patchy and low-res mental screensaver.

 

I also don't visualize. To reliably put myself to sleep assuming I'm not wide awake, I do my best to focus on the static and try to see images.

I visualize during dreams; or at least my waking memory says I was visualizing during dreams.

During hypnagogia, I can visualize, a bit. Trying to visualize moves me into hypnagogia, continuing puts me to sleep.

59eB15mo
I learned a similar trick from an old LW post. You focus on the static in your visual field. If it starts to resolve into random seeming images, that is the beginning of hypnogagia, and if it starts to resolve into even more concrete imagery you are very close to sleep. Try to keep focusing on it, eventually you will fall asleep. This generally works for me.
Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!

I know exactly what I want to do to continue analysis, but don't know whether I'll get/make the time to do it. For now, here is my PvE deck:

Angel: 3x (because they're just solid!)
Lotus: 3x (need to turbo out the Angels)
Emperor: 2x (I mean if you already have the Lotuses...)
Dragon: 1x (cannot resist a Dragon)
Vigilante: 3x (just some filler to stabilize)

7GuySrinivasan5mo
I have completed the modeling I'm going to do.
Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!

Here are informed but wildly overconfident beliefs:

  • this is a card game with characteristics similar to Magic the Gathering
  • cards are played and have costs to play related to the number of alliterative words in their names
  • Lotus makes it easier to pay more costs, so has synergy with Angels, Dragons, and Emperors
  • Guards and Knights are pretty much the same; lots of them with lots of Battalions have great synergy
  • Hooligans, Minotaurs, and Pirates have some synergy
  • Swords are used by others and used especially well by Pirates
  • Good and Evil work well against
... (read more)
2GuySrinivasan5mo
I know exactly what I want to do to continue analysis, but don't know whether I'll get/make the time to do it. For now, here is my PvE deck:
Civilization as Self-Restraint

The more I think about it, the more the "for supporting people with a serious enough disability" doesn't feel like "civilization" to me. It does feel good, and I like the use of an abundance of resources being spent that way, but it feels to me like "everyone relinquishes power so that it can be used in a coordinated way" is civilization and "the coordinated use of power is for good things rather than for bad things" is moral progress. Not sure if I'm just trying to fit things into the OP frame but it doesn't feel like it.

It feels like American people are more civilized when they create a military, but nations are less civilized when they all have militaries which are doing things to each other?

America's Invisible Graveyard: Understanding the Moral Implications of Western sanctions

vastly more sense than at least half

I would not be surprised if this is the most clearly false bit of everything in the OP plus comment section. I have been subscribed to his posts since the games he ran and I don't think there's any way at least half of his posts could possibly be described as making vastly less sense than the OP.

Hmm. Let me rethink. Okay, possibly? If you think fiction makes no sense? That would do it, maybe. Otherwise nah.

-3Said Achmiz5mo
I stand by my claim. (Fiction excluded.)
D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions Evaluation & Ruleset

My plan of "when out of time, do enough to capture pairwise stuff and combine with an adhoc heuristic" works surprisingly well in these. :D

Which SCPs are available for capture each quarter, how do we know how many teams of which types were available to capture them, and how were teams allocated in the past?

Feedback: my gut reaction is that it would have been extremely difficult to divine the underlying-source nature of the data. Do you have a suggested method or technique that would have been likely to work? I think that noticing the success rates of teams... (read more)

3aphyer6mo
I've also edited the doc to add this: Aside from their dependence on tags, your predecessors' actions were almost entirely random, sending 2 teams of each type plus 1-5 additional random teams (1d3 at first, up to 1d4 in 1950 and 1d5 in 2000) to target random SCP objects. I did not intend for it to be realistically possible for players to fully capture the underlying nature of the data. The goal was to have a tag-to-profit mapping that followed reasonably simple rules, but exhibited complicated behaviors that provided a lot of depth for players to analyze. My hoped-for pattern of 'how to solve this problem' took the form of: 1. Sanity-checking the data. What is up with these weird rows? Get rid of them! 2. Safe/Euclid objects are much more profitable on average. Let's just try a bunch of random Safe objects with no Keter ones. 3. Chasing down tags to do better than random at identifying profitable Safe objects. ('Mechanical', 'Mobile' and 'Virtual' are probably your best friends here.) 4. Keter objects have the highest profit numbers. Is there a way we can get those? 5. Chasing down tags to do better than random at identifying profitable Keter objects. (This would require a lot more effort, including a lot of multi-tag effects like the 'Organic AND Mechanical' one, before it could make your payoff from this beat just pursuing Safe objects. You do get a bonus ending though.) Overall most people just did steps #1-3, which is not unexpected. In your 'escape' plan you actually scored nearly as high as your 'invaluable' plan in expectation, going after SCP-2797, SCP-3688 and SCP-4004 (all three Keter objects that showed up in the max-payoff scenario), but losing some payoffs on Euclid-class objects.
Contest for outlining rules for this contest.

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D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions

:chagrin:

I have replaced the first legal team target with a... legal target.

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