All of ig0r's Comments + Replies

What is Wisdom?

I agree that raising general predictive ability would also tend to increase wisdom. I think my main point, which I probably didn't sufficiently highlight, is that wisdom is bottlenecked on data (and also maybe seems to require more abstraction and abduction than other learning) moreso than other knowledge we tend to collect due to the underlying complexity of the thing we are trying to predict (human behavior)

0tadasdatys4yIf the super intelligent agent would lack data, he would realize this and then go collect some. The situation is only dangerous if the agent decides to take drastic action without evaluating his own accuracy. But if the agent is too stupid to evaluate his own accuracy, he's probably too stupid to implement the drastic action in the first place. And if the agent is able to evaluate itself, but ignores the result, that's more a problem of evil than a lack of wisdom.
How French intellectuals ruined the West - Postmodernism and its impact, explained

I think that's right and it's a bit of a strawman. I don't think pomo originally threw out epistemology but it provides tools that, while useful for general societal critique, are also easy to shoot your foot off with. So, pomo allows for some good things but also seems to have enabled identity politics as well as right wing fake news hysteria.

Satisfaction Levers

To me, this felt more like speculation which was certainly informed by many things I've read in the past but nothing particular came to mind with the exception of the obvious reference to Deleuze. A kind of applied Deleuzian psychiatry, although I'm not sure he would agree with this sort of application. (

Good point regarding Focusing, and I do agree that it is closely related. I've only listened to the audiobook, is there a work by Gendlin you would recommend? Upon reflectio... (read more)

3ChristianKl5yI personally had enough training from other sources to pick up the technique from the book. From what I have seen with how various people in this community interact with Focusing, it's however not easy to pick up all the skills from a book. I have successfully taught the technique to LW people who had trouble getting it to work by in-person teaching but there are people whom I didn't teach the skill successfully. In those circumstances reading a book won't do the trick either. The connection isn't logical but if you connect with the physical sensation and give the feeling a handle it's possible to ask questions about what's needed for the release. It's just about connecting with your mind on a level where you listen. The qualia of the physical sensation alone isn't enough. It also needs a connection to that qualia, the resonating handle, a question and listening but it's not required to actually try different solutions to see whether on of those solutions releases the feeling. The feeling knows what it needs. Even outside of that deliberate process a lot of the information is available through normal intuition.
Satisfaction Levers

Yes that Cleese piece is great, thanks for sharing.

Projects-in-Progress Thread

+1 for the suggestions made by others. I will ping the blog writer about this post to see if he's interested in reaching out.

You may also want to look at Daniel Ingram and his MCTB community

0RainbowSpacedancer5yI've read all of Daniel Ingram's stuff. He's a fantastic resource. If you like his stuff, MCTB v2 is scheduled to come out later this year. The draft is much improved over the original IMO.
How do you identify complex systems?

That's also just the tip of the iceberg. This book is a good guide to identifying and predicting complex time series behavior:

So I guess this is along the lines of: try prediction techniques that are designed to work on complex systems and see how it goes.

This doesn't work when you don't have enough data to do so, of course.

Ideas for Next Generation Prediction Technologies

On the topic of financial markets and aggregation of signals, there is actually a lot of ML-based signal aggregation going on within trading companies. A common structure is having specialized individuals or teams develop predictive signals (for publicly traded securities) and then have them aggregated into a single meta-prediction (typically a "microprice", or theoretical price) which is then used for order placement.

A couple anecdotes:

  1. There is some publicly available story about a high frequency KOSPI options desk that made a substantial impr
... (read more)
Finding slices of joy

Nice. Just curious, how much did you do, and why'd you stop (if you did)?

1Kaj_Sotala5yHard to say, both because I haven't been sticking very hard to any specific style of meditation, and also because the amount of meditation I've done has varied a lot, depending on various life circumstances. There was a time when I'd meditate for several hours a day; these days I do less formal practice (I try to go for at least twenty minutes a day), but I tend to also incorporate meditation into my daily activities and routines and maintain a level of mindfulness throughout the day. I tend to easily slip into a meditative state in the morning, after waking up but before getting up from bed, and might spend an hour or two that way. I haven't actually done very much pure vipassana; instead I've found tranquility meditation [] , "just-sitting" zazen [], and most recently metta more rewarding.
Finding slices of joy

This is derivative of meditative insight practice. You may be interested in looking into Vipassana practice. With some time spent building concentration skills this kind of sensation noticing practice is far more powerful (think, LSD-like power) and can be extended to get you a lot more than just joy

2Kaj_Sotala5yYeah, I've done Vipassana which I'm pretty sure has made the practice a lot easier.
Rationality Quotes: February 2011

Sorry for the slow reply, want to do this over email? im gbasin at gmail

2benelliott11yI'm benelliott3 at gmail. To be honest I'm not very familiar with the stock-market so if you could suggest a procedure for the experiment, including such things as where to get the information that would be appreciated. Care to precommit to a discussion post about the experiment regardless of the result?
Rationality Quotes: February 2011

I will participate if you'd like to try, there are some problems with the experiment though

1benelliott11yI'm still interested, what changes would you suggest?
Open Thread: May 2010

I work in finance (trading) and go through my daily life quantifying everything in terms of EV.

I would just caution in saying that, yes procrastinating provides you with some real option value as you mentioned but you need to weigh this against the probability of you exercising that option value as well as the other obvious costs of delaying the task.

Certain tasks are inherently valuable to delay as long as possible and can be identified as such beforehand. As an example, work related emails that require me to make a decison or choice I put off as long as ... (read more)

TED Talks: Daniel Kahneman

I liked this talk a lot, but after some reflection I think I have to disagree with the main premise. He tries to draw a distinction between memory and experience, but in reality just having memories has no impact on the rememberer until they actively recall those memories. It is the recollection of memories which impact us, and this is an experience -- we are essentially re-experiencing a skewed interpretation of the experience we had before.

Same with imagining or planning for the future; our brains are merely trying to emulate for us the experience that, according to our internal models, we will have in the future given a set of circumstances being projected forward in time.