All of Jeffrey Heninger's Comments + Replies

AI Impacts has a related project, where we look at Resisted Technological Temptations and try to figure out "under what circumstances can large concrete incentives to pursue technologies be overcome by forces motivated by uninternalized downsides, such as ethical concerns, risks to other people with no recourse, or risks the decisionmaker does not believe in."

Our current non-exhaustive list of plausible cases includes:

  • Geoengineering, many actors, present, scientist opposition inhibits research needed for others' enthusiasm
  • Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors,
... (read more)

I find the idea that intelligence is less useful for sufficiently complex systems or sufficiently long time frames interesting. Or at least the kind of intelligence that helps you make predictions. My intuition is that there is something there, although it's not quite the thing you're describing.

I agree that the optimal predictability of the future decays as you try to predict farther into the future. If the thing you're trying to predict in the technical sense, you can make this into a precise statement.

I disagree that the skill needed to match this optim... (read more)