In some situations, part of the problem may simply be that instead of calculating a joint probability, they are calculating a conditional probability. The effect of mistakenly calculating a conditional probability is that one event may seem highly probable given the other event occurred; I believe this could be a mathematical reason explaining the plausibility effect in some situations.

For example: the probability that USA and USSR suspend diplomatic relations given that Russia invades Poland is probably more likely than the marginal event, USA and USSR suspend diplomatic relations.

In some situations, part of the problem may simply be that instead of calculating a joint probability, they are calculating a conditional probability. The effect of mistakenly calculating a conditional probability is that one event may seem highly probable given the other event occurred; I believe this could be a mathematical reason explaining the plausibility effect in some situations.

For example: the probability that USA and USSR suspend diplomatic relations given that Russia invades Poland is probably more likely than the marginal event, USA and USSR suspend diplomatic relations.