"If the hypothesis is that the coin comes up heads 95% of the time, then one time in twenty you will see what looks like contrary evidence."

My question here assumes that you mean one in twenty times you get a tails (if you mean one in twenty times you get a heads, then I'm also confused but for different reasons).

Surely if I have a hypothesis that a coin will land heads 95% of the time (and therefore tails 5% of the time) then every cluster of results in which 1/20 are tails is actually supporting evidence. If I toss a coin X times (where X is so... (read more)

"If the hypothesis is that the coin comes up heads 95% of the time, then one time in twenty you will see what looks like contrary evidence."

My question here assumes that you mean one in twenty times you get a tails (if you mean one in twenty times you get a heads, then I'm also confused but for different reasons).

Surely if I have a hypothesis that a coin will land heads 95% of the time (and therefore tails 5% of the time) then every cluster of results in which 1/20 are tails is actually supporting evidence. If I toss a coin X times (where X is so... (read more)