Jon Zero


Dissolving Sleeping Beauty

I think my argument is more stark: I'm saying that there are fundamentally two types of credence, (A) and (B) in the comment above, and only one of them is relevant to rational decision-making.

I agree with intuition being the thing that separates Halfers and Thirders, but I'm saying that they're fighting over irrelevant Type (B) credence -- "inner" credence in the OOBR post I linked to.

Dissolving Sleeping Beauty

I've added the Sleeping Beauty tag for you.

Since the rational agent in SBP has full knowledge of the experimental set-up, she has no need of any subjective credence: any bet she takes can be made solely on the facts of the experiment.

Paradoxes like SBP seem to evaporate if you distinguish two types of credence: (A) credence for the experiment that the agent is a part of, vs. (B) credence for the outcomes encountered within the experiment.  Type (A) credence for the experimental protocol is all you need for decision-making.  Type (B) credence is implied by the experimental protocol and adds nothing to the agent's decision-making capabilities, so you're free to define that however you wish.

See for more detail.

A Simplified Version of Perspective Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Thank you for the quick reply.

I would agree that having a clear decision objective is important.  I would go further: without an objective, why should anyone care how the agent (who, by definition, takes action) feels about their circumstances?  I note in your final sentence that you see things differently, but I don't have a killer argument to the contrary.

I can see the need for subjective probability, but only in model selection.  Thereafter, you're working to find a strategy maximising the expected value of an objective function.  I recorded my thoughts here.

A Simplified Version of Perspective Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Being new to this, I have no problem asking naïve questions, so: why does Sleeping Beauty need to have any "credence" at all?  She's armed with the facts of the experiment and can make decisions based solely on those; why does anyone suppose that she forms some "credence" as a proxy for the facts?

Just like to add that I found your website very clear and, in parts, quite compelling.  Thank you.