Given the data we have getting an "illicit" fourth booster shot might be the safer play. The mRNA vaccines continue to work, especially against severe disease, the effect is just much diminished.
Also, is there even any evidence for this assertion? If we stipulate that absolutist monarchies are about as bad as a dictatorship then how did that assertion work out historically? Over the last 10'000 years when lifespans were much shorter dictatorships and related systems flourished. The ascent of democracy has paralleled an increase in lifespans. Correlation does not imply causation, but at least it makes it more likely, whereas the dictator argument is just speculation as far as I can tell.
You are right, the same is true in Germany as well. There is even some evidence for lower crime rates for certain immigrant groups (e.g., first generation immigrants from Turkey, or SE-Asian/Chinese immigrants, if I recall correctly). Still, more crimes means more crimes, even if this is due to demographics, and the voters will punish the pro-immigrant parties accordingly.
How limiting are poor corpus quality and limited size for these models? For example, Megatron-Turing NLG was only trained on PubMed extracts but not on PubMed Central, which is part of the Pile dataset. Was this perhaps intentional or an oversight?
Regarding medical texts, I see many shortcomings of the training data. PubMed Central is much smaller at 5 million entries than the whole PubMed corpus at 30 million entries, which seems to be unavailable due to copyright issues. However, perhaps bigger is not better?
Regarding books, how relevant is the limited s... (read more)
As far as I can tell, if they suspend one of two available mRNA vaccines this is bound to have zero effect on vaccination rates in the young because the other one can fill the gap.
Do you think this is a problem? It appears to me that no development is possible without some tail risk (which we obviously want to minimize wherever possible!). Can we come up with a realistic world in which technologic progress is used for peaceful purposes exclusively and never causes any negative surprises? Or a world that develops with zero tail risk?
My personal experience is that it's true hence I would caution against too much rest. Wrist pain is a very vague term, no idea what you have, but I have battled RSI for over half a decade (mostly of the fingers) and at some point it got so bad that I wanted to quit my degree and it felt like even reading a book or newspaper was too painful. By all means, use your voice, contralateral arm or legs and feet to take over some repetetive tasks.
However, you need to use, strengthen and stretch your wrists as well. Targeted massage and strengthening with a physiot... (read more)
Trying to organize my thoughts on progress a bit:
I do not think we lack a "philosophy of progress" as much as the OP. I would like to argue that progress is real and that there is decent literature on this topic that not enough people read. Moreover, the topic of progress is a good recruitment tool for EA and rationalism. I find it more exciting and powerful than the bleak nihilism offered by atheism, meek criticism of pseudoscience offered by “the skeptics” movements and the vague (but obviously not misguided) appeals to the noble human nature proff... (read more)
I do not think that is true, at least in Europe where hundreds of millions of people use generic drugs every day. In Germany, in the UK and in Austria a doctor will amost always prescribe a generic when available and people will often buy a generic over the counter. While sometimes too conservative, the very reason why we need the FDA, the EMA, et al. is exactly to make sure that generics* work well -- and they almost always do, one cannot use rare counter examples to disprove that. Do we have any hard data to suggest that generics are somehow unsafe?* i.e. not some Indian blackmarket knock-off that isn't FDA/EMA approved
With such highly subjective soft outcomes a lot depends on the way the question is phrased and interpreted (if self-reporting). Thus comparing different populations and studies is almost impossible without really carefully digging into the original publications and even then it is fraught with problems.
If I have a rash post-vaccine and I go to see my GP or pharamcist, am I seeking medical help and is this worrisome? If I get up and later realize that I need to lie down or else I will faint (vasovagal syncope, around one in ten people have some form of need... (read more)
The sad fact is that we do not even understand mice very well. There is this old joke that can be paraphrased like this: if I were a mouse I could be cancer free and live forever, because it is so easy to cure these guys of diseases. As it turns out, however, this is not true. Within my field it was long gospel that caloric restriction (discovered some 100 years ago) can robustly extend mouse lifespan until studies in the last 20 years called this into question.
What the joke gets right is that we understand humans even less than mice. In fact, despite the ... (read more)
I guess this goes back to the issue of defining things and what you mean by hallmarks. If you define your hallmarks broadly enough they may include almost anything while being so vague that they are only useful for posters and ads. In the case of vague hallmarks you'd be right, if you fix them you're all good. But even in this extreme case I do expect the number of vague hallmarks to grow a little bit over time as we learn more. In fact, to me they feel incomplete and ill-defined already.
Looking at the classic "The Hallmarks of Aging" paper (first publishe... (read more)
My reply comes a bit late since I managed to write a long comment without clicking send and only noticed this now. I will address the errors I see in the TL;DR summary from the POV of a semi-professional biogerontologist:
The disease-based approach to aging this seems to favour is useful, but limited. In fact, if you genuinely want to extend both lifespan and healthspan this excessive focus on the disease-based approach would be inefficient because is inconsistent with everything we know about aging. I would go as far as to say that the disease-based approa... (read more)
Actually, they all do include it, but is is subsumed under stem cell aging, loss of cells and reduced regenerative capacity. Also to clarify what I would consider a misunderstanding. Not everything has to fit. There are probably infintely many causes of aging or at least quite a lot. Most of these fall into the rough categories or "hallmarks" we have come up with like reduced stem cell functioning or damage to biomolecules. Many of these causes are not relevant to immediate life extension which is why they can be ignored for now. Other categories or "hallm... (read more)
Does not make that much intuitive sense to me because there are a lot of random mutations happening. If the first dose first (or first dose only) strategy reduces the size of the whole SARS-CoV-2 viriome, there will be fewer viruses and less genetic variation in total. More infections in total means more genetic diversity. More infections means that a vaccinated person will be exposed to more sources of infection, more virions, more different genomes over time, thus also increasing the likelihood of mutants able to escape the immunologic response.