All of Leafcraft's Comments + Replies

Skilled players catching on to you is irrelevant. That was exactly my problem after I got a bit of experience: I could easily catch evil but no one would believe me. On the other hand if you can "capture" an enemy player you can pretty much brute force the result regardless of other people's actions (unless there are other good manipulators). Also consider that you'll often have to pocket an allied player just to get them to play "correctly", it's not something you necessarily have to do to an enemy. 

Assessing players becomes relatively easy after som... (read more)

Never played mafiascum, is it active? Does it have a lot of players? 

Never played Mafia myself but I was one of the strongest players a few seasons back in Town of Salem. The best skill is the ability to quickly assess which are the players that can be easily manipulated. That is the most OP skill but it is conditional with playing with people of variable level, if you play with skilled people only, then strategic killing/hanging becomes vital and you can easily smell the fakes as Town 'cos their actions are poorly aligned with their words. 

As a ... (read more)

It's somewhat active, but games take a week or so to begin after signups. Player level is definitely variable. How do you end up assessing which players are easily manipulated, and how do you "pocket" them without other skilled players catching on to what you're doing?

The Eskimos live in the Arctic tundra. The !Kung live in the Kalahari desert. They have so little violence because there is so little to fight over.

Debatable. Other primitive societies that lived in deserted areas where extremely violent.

The original article doesn't really addresses the differences of state vs non-state societies, yet this binary characterization dominates the entire reading. Some interesting examples seems to have been conviniently left out. The entire article is mostly derived from a single essay (sources look good, though).

Still, I would generally agree that violence has decreased with the advent of modernity.

I didn't mention any country because you didn't ask for any. Anyway, it seems we aren't having a very productive conversation so I'm gonna stop here.

have a good day

Mind if I ask you why are you so interested in arguments? I already provided empirical evidence of the opposite of what you suggest, doesn't that beat any opposing argument?

I can easily flip your argument around: In a free market workers can ask for whatever pay they want, since they want to be paid as much as possible for as little work as possible, eventually the owners will be left with very little profit, just enough to survive. 

What makes this argument wrong and yours correct is not evident to me; both are disproved by empirical evidence.

Because the world is complicated and there could be a lot of factors determining the equilibria, and I'm looking for insights that cover many actual and possible cases. (Also, I don't think you named any countries? Someone else named some countries, but it seems like at least some of them have heavy gvt-enforced worker's rights and gvt unemployment benefits, which does not seem like what you're imagining.)

Probably: private unions for a category of jobs would do collective bargaining agreements with employers (if necessary). In all other cases, people would just negotiate their work value.

Is there a clear argument that this would not result in most workers being paid just enough to not starve? (Or would you endorse that happening, if that's the result of the negotiations? Or something else?) The "sweatshop" attractor seems to exist, naively. The argument being: local incentives for managers push towards slave wages; transition costs of switching jobs are high enough that more generous managers can't just poach all the workers, and in the long run less generous managers make more money. This argument only straightforwardly works for some extreme simplifications. E.g. I'm imagining that all the workers are playing their CDT best response, and all the managers are doing something more complicated that involves starving out workers. I don't get whether other people are making different simplifying assumptions that apply things will be fine, or what.

"if a country has minimum wage laws, removing those laws will in fact tend to reduce wages."

You say so, but you don't justify that statement in any way. When the poster wrote: "Without the minimum wage law, lots of people would probably be paid significantly less."

I assumed they meant that the lack of MWL would push to sweatshop like conditions, my observation proves that it is not ture. The reverse (MWL pushes away from sweatshop like conditions) can also be proven false, as there are plenty of countries with bad economies and MWL where people live in miserable conditions. 

Libertarians see government intervention as bad because, to them, it is a self-interested third party, and as such, will make decisions that benefit itself mostly.

Many Libertarians believe in self ownership and therefore think government power is illegitimate and that they can't make decisions for others.

There's a few countries without minimum wage laws that have way better average wages than the US and many others, I believe this fact already invalidates some of your observations. 

For libertarians workers unions would be ok, as long as they're not government sponsored (they're a type of private government), while government intervention is pretty much always seen as bad since they are not considered a legitimate way to solve market issues (wages are a market issue)

Why is government intervention not legitimate? Is that judgement grounded in a model of how labor relations would work with or without various kinds of intervention? (It doesn't have to be. E.g. "intervention should be presumed bad because third parties have bad incentives from the 1st and 2nd parties's perspectives" is a solid argument; and it's not based on "here's how wage negotiations will go in a world without gvt monopoly on threats of force".)
I don't think it invalidates the claim that "Without the minimum wage law, lots of people would probably be paid significantly less." (I believe that's one of the claims you were referring to. Let me know if I misinterpreted your post.) I don't have a whole lot of time to research economies around the world, but I checked out a couple sources with varying perspectives (two struck me as neutral, two as libertarian). One of the libertarian ones made no effort to understand or explain the phenomenon, but all three others agreed that these countries rely on strong unions to keep wages up. IMO, that means you're both partially right. As you said, some countries can and do function without minimum wages - it's clearly possible. But as the original poster said, if a country has minimum wage laws, removing those laws will in fact tend to reduce wages. Some countries without minimum wages still have well-paid workers. Other countries without minimum wages have sweatshops. I think that market forces push towards the "sweatshop" end of the scale (for the reasons described by the original poster), and unions are one of the biggest things pushing back.

Chemistry & Chemical Reactivity (Kotz, Treichel, Townsend)

Ah, good point! I have a feeling this is a central issue that is hardly discussed here (or anywhere)

5Sam Clarke2y
Will MacAskill calls this the "actual alignment problem" [] Wei Dai has written a lot about related concerns in posts like The Argument from Philosophical Difficulty []

Isn't that the same as the last one?

Just call it a "Status Quo Lock-In" or "Arbitrary Lock-In"

Well, it's intentionally a riff on that one. I wanted one that illustrated that these "shriek" situations, where some value system takes over and gets locked in forever, don't necessarily involve "defectors". I felt that the last scenario was missing something by concentrating entirely on the "sneaky defector takes over" aspect, and I didn't see any that brought out the "shared human values aren't necssarily all that" aspect.

I'd bet a decent amount of money into this project not working out (depending on the metric of "not working out")

Not sure if it counts as a "weird belief" but I am an anarchist for relatively "usual" reasons.

I believe Plants, Fungi and even inanimate objects experience consciousness (to some extent). Consciousness is, probably, an intrinsic property of matter and it exists throughout the physical universe in some form.

I  believe there is a nontrivial chance that plants experience consciouness. Like maybe 20% or so? I haven't thought about it carefully, and it would require a more operationalized definition of consciousness to assign a solid credence. I thought of this belief before reading the comments and was somewhat surprised to find another person espousing it.

As far as reliability goes, consider that PM are a very new thing, so I recommend you use precaution with all of them for the time being.

Augur is working but last time I checked transaction fees were pretty high, so volume/liquidity was very small, it should improve in the near future especially if Ethereum transition to PoS (I also plan to start trading on Augur). 

I heard you can sometimes trade events on sites like BetFair.

Other current/upcoming Predicion Markets not limited to the U.S. are:





Could you cite any? Or at least point me at some research/source on the subject?

What do you think about "Mate"?

1snog toddgrass3y
Mate is very good. I should write an entire post reviewing the book. Much of the value from Mate is that it helps you understand your own experience. The most valuable single chapter in Mate is the chapter on mating markets. The effect size of moving mating markets is so huge that its obvious to me. Of the five mating markets I've explored, by far the largest factor is the demographic ratios. When I was 24 and in a terrible mating market, my friends really did tell me the market didn't matter and the problem was my behaviors. I felt so unnatractive and stupid and socially incompetent while in that market. In retrospect the religious customs of that country just made dating a foreign atheist impossible. My mate value determined my outcomes much less than I thought. If any straight readers are in a terrible mating market I have three recommendations. Read "Mate" then watch "Sex and the City". Also, consider moving.

I think very few people celebrate scientific/technical achievements. Those people weren't celebrating the achievement per se, but their country/nation or perhaps the individual(s) who did that. Feelings of national (and sometimes even individual) pride are becoming more and more politically incorrect; so as the sense of belonging fades away people also celebrate less and less

I think while there are many who feel uncomfortable showing national pride specifically, there's still capacity for collective pride- just a different collective, not the nation

Is there any online community where people can practice DC that you would recommend?

3Eli Tyre3y
"Community" is a bit strong for these early stages, but I'm running small training sessions via Zoom, with an eye towards scaling them up. If you're interested, put down your details on this google form []. Also, this is a little bit afield, but there are online NonViolent Communication communities. Bay NVC [], for instance, does a weekly dojo, now online due to the pandemic. NVC is very distinctly not Double Crux, but they do have a number of overlapping sub-skills. And in general, I think that the most the of conflicts that most people have in "real life" are better served by NVC than DC.

I see. With regard to your post and the origin of the black hole "pic", do you believe that applying the same pipeline to random images or even noise would generate a similar result?

Thanks for the interesting read. I absolutely lack the background to comment on your conclusions, but your post made me remember some questions I had on Black Holes that no physicist I talked to could answer, I never would have guessed the field had detractors.

If you don't mind me asking, are you also a climate change skeptic?

You mention evolution being proven wrong a long time ago. Care to elaborate?

-15Miguel Cisneros3y

I believe you used the therm "genetic code" incorrectly in [II.] when you were talking about cancer, the correct word is genome.

For anybody who wants to understand: The difference between the terms is that genetic code means the part of the DNA that codes for proteins. The genome on the other hand means all DNA and thus also telomere and other information like various types of RNA for which DNA codes.

Some bacterial species have impressive level of radiation resistance, so it's a quality that can certainly be evolved much like antibiotic resistance. The most extreme radiation-resistance strategies involve the presence of multiple genomes within a cell as "backups", this is coupled with various metabolic activities which have the goal to replace/repair the "main one" when it is damaged by radiation. Viruses, on the other hand, completely lack a metabolism and therefore will have serious trouble developing this kind of resistance.

I agree with this, plus note that UVC is actually more dangerous than radiation for bacteria, because the number of photons per watt is significantly greater and the energy per photon is already enough to do damage.

As a general thing, I believe dating falls into one of those category of things that are better improved by simply practicing it; I wouldn't really recommend any books on dating per se.

I can, however, recommend certain books that better explain the nature of social interaction in general that I personally found very helpful and have had a positive impact on my dating life:

Games People Play

Influence: Science and Practice

The Laws of Human Nature

I might have better suggestions for more specific topics...

Generally bad advice. I found the book to be very well written, my only complaint is with the content. The beginning was good with some good introduction and very well written definition of some of the core problems/concepts. The rest of the book was just bad; bad advice and very vague in general. I've read many books on the subject, most have flaws in the sense that are heavily in ideology and/or somewhat poorly written, but they manage to at least get the basic facts right; this one left like the complete opposite.

Sorry, I'm bad at reviews.

1Francesco Piantieri3y
So, Leafcraft, if any, what book do you suggest on the subject of dating?

I think one of the reason so many people are bad at it is that there is a lot of misinformation about the subject. Consider it is also kind of a taboo so it's hard for people to take it seriously. I also wanted to say that I think "Mate" is probably the worst book I've read on the subject.

Why did you think the book was so bad?
it's a rather more confused experience than for those who have always been sighted.

I suppose they just need to develop the spatial skill to process the information? As I said there is no reason to believe these people lack qualias, as color-blind people with synesthesia experience so-called "Moon Colors"

I have never heard of people who acquired sight later in life experience long-term issues with the sense; unlike say people who haven't been exposed to language at an early age.

Fresh from birth babies have also trouble seeing and I think this is a simliar lack of sensory skill but I would characterise it as more of a cognitive one rather than a spatial one. Althought with babies their understanding is all-around limited whereas if someone is new to seeing but otherwise familiar with life the "noobiness" is very pinpointed to a narrow sector.
Some people are color-blind. This deficiency can be objectively demonstrated by tasks such as the Ishihara patterns.

This does not mean that color-blind people are missing qualia. In fact we know for sure that at least some color-blind individuals still possess the qualia of the "missing" color.

As a general rule people that cannot smell/touch ect. simply lack the receptors for these kind of experiences; this doesn't mean they lack the qualia.

It would be interesting to know to what extent the brain has the hardware to have qualia that their senses for are missing. People who have been blind from birth, but then through some medical intervention can see do have "sight", but it's a rather more confused experience than for those who have always been sighted.
Highly debatable

I would say that the only fair thing to say here, is that we simply do not have any way to know that as of today.

Submission: Low-bandwidth Oracle

What is the most likely solution to the Fermi Paradox?

Answer can be picked from a small number of options (Rare Earth, Aestivation, Great Filter, Planetarium etc.). There are a number of observation that we can make based on the question alone. However, in the end the LBO can only do one of 2 things: lie or be honest. If it lies, the prediction will have a harder and harder time matching the reality that we observe as time goes on. Alternatively we confirm the prediction and learn some interesting things about the universe w... (read more)

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See the edit (especially for your first suggestion): "decide on the length of each episode, and how the outcome is calculated. The Oracle is run once an episode only (and other Oracles can't generally be used on the same problem; if you want to run multiple Oracles, you have to justify why this would work), and has to get objective/loss/reward by the end of that episode, which therefore has to be estimated in some way at that point."

Very interesting work. I am not an expert by any means, but a quick search in the chapter on Jewish Law does not mention the Kibbutz. While admittedly the most interesting aspects of the Kibbutz are the anthropological ones rather than the ones concerning the legal system I suppose they could be an example of a "very different system". Unfortunately I cannot recommend any source in particular. Similarly in the Iranian government the Legal and Political systems are heavily interweaved with the religious authority.

I've been a trader for 2 years, it's just a hobby for me. I've mostly done Sentiment and Fundamental but wanted to try Technical and others.

If you were a hobbist like me, what would you say is the best way to host a bot? Should I get my own server? Do I rent one? Or do I use an exchange?

Thanks, great post and I love your logo.

Depending on how complex your strategies are, may be something like this could work: []
Hmm, that's a good question. I haven't looked into it too much, but I'd definitely try to leverage a 3rd party platform for hosting or at least use a 3rd party library to do the trading. [] was kind of decent when I used it for a while a year ago. By now, if they're still improving it, it's probably pretty good. One advantage there is that they have the data too. [] is a wonderful API that generalizes how you interact with exchanges. Hosting wise, AWS (what we use) or Google Cloud would both work. I personally like the latter a lot more.

A Blockchain cannot validate information received if the hardware is not secure, so it cannot replace the Fail-Deadly Key.

A Blockchain, on the other hand, could timestamp the hash as soon as it is generated to ensure it was created before a certain point in time.

May be use something like a projected outside crypto timestamp, by the photo flash?

I guess you could do that in a variety of ways. PM in general can be used to create rewards for events to happen. Take the following: "I agree to leave facebook if ten million other people agree to leave with me." could be implemented as "I bet $$ that 10M people will not leave FB within a month", people can then stake against it and leave FB to promote the event (and share the contract). PM are very flexible, the real limitation IMO is to create a community to bring liquidity to the market and then create a standard contract for people to follow for a specific type of market

Looks like something of this sort could be easily implemented in an already existing platform like Augur, I actually wouldn't mind putting some effort in it if someone is interested

Interesting, what's the connection here? Are you saying that assurance contracts could be implemented using a prediction market? Or were you thinking of something more along the lines of Augur's distributed voting system for decision outcomes? Anyway I'd be interested to hear what you're thinking here.

Yeah, DeepMind seems to be behaving unethically here (i.e., being deliberately deceptive), since a bunch of people there must understand Starcraft II well enough to know that the APM graph/comparison is misleading, but the blog post still used it prominently to try to show AlphaStar in a better light. Hopefully it's some sort of misunderstanding or honest mistake that they'll clear up during the Reddit AMA, but if not it seems like another bad sign for the future of AI governance, comparable to the Baidu cheating scandal.

Do you happen to accept proposal for research that you can fund?

You are correct. There is no known experiment that can conclusively prove the existence of qualia in other minds (as far as I know). All this prove is that the fish can feel pain (which we already know from neurophysiological research) not that it can experience it.

Although the experience of pain is almost inevitable in every large enough evoluture (from a theoretical point of view).

As someone who works in the field, I am very skeptical about these kind of statements from scientist in eastern countries (China in particular), and while events described are certainly within the realm of possibility, I'd rather wait until more evidence is available before taking the new seriously.

This post was very well written, though it seems to me to be dominated by views that are perfectly aligned to a certain political opinion, which actually kind of disencourage me from commenting.

For instance, your first point about unwanted sex seems rather strawmanish to me; obviously "antifeminists" do not use the word rape in the literal sense of "unwanted sex". No one wants something that is unwanted, rather it is generally intended as something like "Women enjoy sex in ways they are unwilling to admit publicly, and to a lesser... (read more)

Any suggestions for Sociology/Social Psychology?

The suggestion about Fortune 500 CEO seems good; "self-made" millionaires are a category far enough from STEM, and, due to their status, they are more likely to have reliable biographical information. If you want to go in a completely different direction, how about something like the Darwin Awards?

Correct. I guess I'd rather have an appropriate quantification of the "encouragment" though; but I could be wrong, I will read the study design...

"Sites were randomly assigned to receive an experimental intervention (n = 16) modeled on the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative of the World Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund, which emphasizes health care worker assistance with initiating and maintaining breastfeeding and lactation and postnatal breastfeeding support, or a control intervention (n = 15) of continuing usual infant feeding practices and policies."

Interestingly, I had a similar "plan" set up myself, with Iceland as destination (way closer to where I live)

I think the point here is that there are many circumstances that can influence the choice to use formula, and these might have a stronger effect than the choice itself.

But population-level differences in populations that were encouraged to breastfeed vs. not encouraged to breastfeed, as in the Belarusian study, should circumvent that.

Thanks for the great reading, I wonder if someone would be interested in writing a zetetic description of a very complex subject, as an exercise of course, to see if such a thing is even possible for very complex subjects or how effective it is. I'm new to the site so sorry if such a request is off topic.

You could try.