All of leggi's Comments + Replies

3gwillen2y
I have a sense that this is the formal academic paper version of the webpage that's footnote 7 in the post. Michael Mina (one of the authors on the paper, and one of the advisors on the webpage) is an epidemiologist (who I follow on Twitter), who has been a big cheerleader for the "antigen tests as contagiousness tests" concept. I was really happy to finally see it written up more formally. (He's not first author on the paper, and I don't want to imply it's all just him -- he's just the loudest voice I've been seeing for this, over a pretty long time.)

I watched a few videos and contact improv looks great.  (Full disclosure I watched the videos x2 speed I've little patience watching most stuff). For people in a good enough physical condition, and relaxed enough to go with it,  I can see it being beneficial and a lot of fun. (5 years ago I would have hated the idea because back then movement = pain, pain, pain and I couldn't have let go to move) It looks like free-flowing movement, guided instinctively by the body rather than the brain trying to control and direct.  Support is being ... (read more)

Some comments on Dr Scott Dye's failure-of-homeostatis model:

I read the abstract "Patellofemoral Pain: An Enigma Explained by Homeostasis and Common Sense" and found myself nodding along...

overload and/or injury produces pain. Bone overload and synovial inflammation are common sources of such pain.
Patience and persistence in nonoperative care results in consistent success. Surgery should be rare"

I agree with all that. I'd classify it as common sense as they say in the title.

But after reading the article a couple of times I don't feel the authors w... (read more)

I hope your Dad is doing OK. No worries with timeframes - less than immediate responses are one of LW's strengths IMO.


Abs, butt, quads, traps. I'll try being more mindful of those,

Fricking awesome! Feel for positioning, freedom to move, and balance in left and right. Just to expand a little ...

abs. All good. Imaging extending the linea alba between the rectus abdominis every in-breath. Pubic symphysis to sternum.

butt. fair enough. Big ass muscles - gluteus maximus.

quads. What makes you say "quads" here? It would be very useful for the insight... (read more)

1Randomized, Controlled3y
He's dying. Likely going into palliative soon. Yeah, informally. I don't really have a lot. I saw a physiatrist a few weeks ago, she felt there may be a little arthritis in the joint, but it wasn't the main problem. I've got an order from my GP for blood work, including looking for markers of systemic inflammation, but haven't had a chance to fill it yet. In general I don't feel like I'm very inflamed -- my other joints don't really have a lot of issues (well.. a bit of tendency to rotator cuff soreness from climbing, but it generally seems well managed). I lost a lot of leg strength with lockdown, bec I lost access to bit barbells, which has been shown to be a risk factor for knee pain. I've been working on rebuilding hip flexor and abductor strength, altho more in the high-reps/body-weight range. There was no major mechanical incident or change; I'm pretty careful with my diet (like, careful enough to worry about omega-6/3 ratios, and to eat sardines a couple of times a week. I don't really eat industrially processed or produced foods, except for tofu, which is a staple and canned beans). They seem to respond well to icing and voltarine, which makes me slightly more confident in the "low grade inflammation" theory.

Yes, there are a lot of ways to get sensory feedback. I listed some to increase awareness of the relative positioning of the midline anatomy here.


imagine a string attached to the top of your head, towards the back. "

The "imagine a string" example is great - if it works for an individual and they engage the 'right' muscles to improve posture. It didn't for me, my body was too restricted and misaligned, my 'myalgia of imbalance' too advanced for imagining a string to be of any help.

To take the string idea further, think of the linea alba and nuchal ... (read more)

1Randomized, Controlled3y
Also, for FWIW, while I don't have ChristianKI's level of education in movement, I am an experienced mediator, have done a reasonable amount of work with body scans and some work with tuning the motor cortex and three years of pretty serious contact improv dancing prior to lockdown. I think my proprioception is likely better than average, altho I'm not super confident in that, nor do I have a good sense if it's 60th or 90th percentile.

From the link you provided:

"A very recently reported third discovery demonstrated a previously unknown tissue component-'interstitium'-a networked collagen bound fluid-filled space existent in a number of human organs."

I read that and thought:

"What? The interstitium? I learned about that 30 odd years ago.  Wasn't that one of the things I had to label when sketching from a histology slide, wow that was so long ago ....  "

What has been recently noted and publicised is the interstitium in its form in living tissues.   From this arti... (read more)

1Randomized, Controlled3y
Hi. Apologies for not following up sooner -- my dad's been in the hospital. Okay. Abs, butt, quads, traps. I'll try being more mindful of those, and see if anything suggestive appears. But I also feel like Dr Scott Dye's failure-of-homeostatis model is more specific to what I'm going through ATM, and gears-y and prescriptive. This honestly sounds amazing. Is there a way for a civilian to get access to large mammal [human?] dissections? I'm assuming med schools don't just let you enroll in a single course or audit the anatomy offerings? Thank you for your engagement : )
Posture it's where the body naturaly without effort. For a muscle to hold something in a specific position it has to fire constantly which costs energy. It makes sense for the body to save that energy by using fascia to hold the posture.

This is an issue of definitions then. I agree that it is the connective tissue system that provides passive support for the body, minimising muscular effort. I also believe it is the location of 'physical restrictions' that cause tension, alter positioning and restrict range of movement.

My definition of posture: T... (read more)

2ChristianKl3y
While that claim is true, it's also not useful as there are a lot of different ways to get sensory feedback. Take a posture idea like "A simple way to adjust your body into a better posture is to imagine a string attached to the top of your head, towards the back. " It seems reasonable for a lot of people. We are at a point where Alexander Technique teachers say "You have inaccurate stereotypes of us if you think we would advocate a bad idea like that."  Given your idea of how posture works, would you also argue it's a bad idea and that your idea is very different. If so how do you think your idea is different?

I agree, biology is a realm of uncertainties. The wonder of how living organisms function blows my mind. The level of complexity phenomenal.

However, anatomy is much more fixed. Grossly examinable and recordable. Studied in detail for hundreds of years. We have accurate atlases of how the body is put together, what attaches where....

Anatomy can be complicated (I've very much skipped over a lot of details about the pelvic floor muscles and connective tissue structures) and individual variations are seen, but there is much more certainty about how we are... (read more)

1Randomized, Controlled3y
Anatomy may be more or less fixed, but our understanding of it is definitely much more fluid, and it seems possibly still pretty incomplete: apparently we've recently discovered enough new gross anatomical facts that an overview article was published on them in 2019. Putting aside the issue of levels of certainty here, I'd agree with ChristianKl that I'm a bit unclear what the implications of your model are, except perhaps, "pay attention to your posture and movement" which I already do a fair amount.

Thank you for providing some background. I found it very insightful into your methods of thought and what you consider evidence. (I had to google pedagogy, I don't know what to make of "perceptive pedagogy".)

You've studied anatomy, I think great! Most people (in my experience) find anatomy intimidating but I would hope someone who has studied it would feel more comfortable giving some consideration some, fairly basic, anatomical facts.


I said something about posture being a mix of fascia and muscle and she said: “No, it’s just fascia”


And you are happy... (read more)

2ChristianKl3y
It's not a term where you will learn that much online. In the beginning Danis Bois started out teaching Fasciatherapy. After a while he came to the conclusion that the New Agey people are too closemined and he wanted to try the scientific community. He got a Phd in pedagogy and became professor in somatic-psychoeducation and perceptual psycho-education at the Universidade Moderna in Lisbon, Portugal. As a result he added a new aspect to his teachings. More recently, as his knowledge progressed he used the new term of perceptive pedagogy. English isn't the main language but French and the French base term is pédagogie. The scope of the term in French and in German is a bit different then the scope of the English word pedagogy and in the university time the translation was education as in somatic-psychoeducation.  http://fasciatherapie.org/international/index.php/fasciatherapy-dbm/danis-bois is one public biography of him that gives a bit of an overview over a part of the work and the part that interfaces directly with anatomy. Posture it's where the body naturaly without effort. For a muscle to hold something in a specific position it has to fire constantly which costs energy. It makes sense for the body to save that energy by using fascia to hold the posture. It's also worth noting here that I did pay a serious price for receiving physiotherapy after Schrott for my scolioses (e.g. the goal is posture correction). It trained into my body reflexes that when the muscle tonus falls below a certain point my body tenses up. The cost of that was an inability to fully relax.  It was quite an effort and required an ability to intervene in quite basic processes to get rid of most of that stuff. You haven't noticed the skulls around the idea of muscles driving posture.  The same somatic-psychoeducation comes about from it being a paradigm about how to learn from the experience out of the moment. Valuing embodied knowledge instead of abstract knowledge in generally true

I've read Painscience over the years. It's one of the few places that attempts to cut through the BS of "pain medicine" and I agree with Paul on many things.

However, I am looking at "posture" from a new perspective. (Kind of wish I had another word for body-position - pose? A lot of bad thinking is currently applied to "posture".)

Posture = the pose you are in = the positioning of all the bits of your body, at any time.

  • Good posture = good positioning. Enabled by an unrestricted range of movement, normal tensions within the connective tissue system a
... (read more)

There's not much in it but - based on my experiences and the anatomical facts - I am more certain about Base-Line Theory of Health and Movement that I am about the sun coming up tomorrow. There I've said it. It's what I believe. That strongly. Even so, I would be willing to change my mind and that's why I persevere with looking for feedback.

Have you ever found the 5 main muscles on your body and given some thought about how they are functioning?

6Randomized, Controlled3y
I'd also say that, just on a basic level, this is poor calibration. I would put "sun doesn't rise tomorrow" at... 1 in 10 million? 1 in 100 million? Maybe those are even too high, 1 in 10 million events do happen with some frequency, but maybe I'm just fundamentally deluded about the nature of reality right now. If my understanding of history and physics isn't completely borked, I'd be comfortable pushing that probability down to below 1 in a billion or lower. I'm also comfortable predicting at 90% certainty that a majority of other LWers would also have probabilities for sun-doesn't-rise tomorrow below 1 in 1 million. These are.. like.. real brute facts about reality kinds of things. General relativity. Newtonian mechanics. QM. Nuclear physics. That's the kind of foundation you can build 1 in 100 million-ish certainty on. Stuff with biology is in an entirely different realm of (un)certainties.
6ChristianKl3y
I think I'll have to say a bit more about my background. I went through the professional training for Danis Bois perceptive pedagogy. Part of it is anatomy and getting in relationship with various anatomical features. Besides that general training I had for a while 1-on-1 anatomical teaching with someone that went through classic osteopathy training and then also entered the perceptive pedagogy field and who has three decades of working on people and fixing their issues. He has a good local reputation and a bunch of Yoga and pilates teachers go to him when they are old and their body has issues from being overextended in Yoga positions. Those are the kind of people I'm asking when I want to know something about how the body works.  One story that Danis Bois likes to tell is that he once had a meeting with the teacher who brought Yoga to France and asked them: "How do you deal with the doubt?" Then the Yoga teacher replied something like: "I have no doubt because Yoga has 4000 years of tradition".  Part of what makes the community around Danis Bois a good spiritual community for me is that the people actually doubt whether they get things right and are constantly open to updating their models. It makes it a community that's very compatible with being a rationalist. You seem to me like the Yoga people who are overconfident and not aware of the tradeoffs that they are making.  When it comes to the particular question of posture, I had a conversation with another person who's also in the perceptive pedagogy field a few months ago. The person also has three decades of treating people a separate professional training in a more mainstream modality in which she teaches. She goes to workshop of different people to know what's out there. She just wrote her first academic paper. I said something about posture being a mix of fascia and muscle and she said: "No, it's just fascia" and I think told me in that context a story of a Alexander Method teacher who was very tense as

I expect the sun to come up tomorrow, I am confident it will, but I am not certain of any future event. There's plenty of time between now and then for things (however improbable) to occur that mean the sun doesn't come up.

2ChristianKl3y
That doesn't answer the question of how the certainty of the two events relate to each other.

My theory is based on anatomical facts, logic (feels like I'm stating the obvious) and my subjective experience. It's not complicated but there are multiple parts (split over several posts). I find myself using a lot of words in an attempt to explain clearly and simply (unsuccessfully it seems) so attempting to use as few words as possible and clarify my theory:

Base-Line Theory of Health and Movement

Use the right muscles. Balance and align body and mind. 

Anatomy of alignment

  • Linear structures: Linea alba, supraspinous & nuchal ligaments.
  • 5 mi
... (read more)
6Randomized, Controlled3y
Paul Ingraham has written pretty extensively on posture and it's relationship to pain/dysfunction, surveying the literature and concludes that there's very little evidence to support a posture/pain connection.

Muscles move bones. Muscles do determine posture, along with connective tissues. I did edit my "posture post" after you'd read it. Originally I'd not mentioned the condition of connective tissues affecting posture (a glaring omission!). I find "fascia" too restricting as a term, I'm sticking with connective tissues.

  • Muscles alter positioning/posture in an active manner. 
  • The condition of connective tissues affects posture in a more passive manner.
factors that are involved in getting it unstuck in more complex

Could you provide details about t... (read more)

Well blushing a lot at my typo. I went from % to <p> and apparently forgot about the decimal point.

I'm not one to put numbers on things but it's popular on LW and my fingers spat it out as I was typing.

I am certain.

I've never been so certain of anything in my life.

What confidence level would be acceptable?

2ChristianKl3y
You are more certain of that then the sun going up tomorrow?
Why? How many times, for how long? What evidence do you expect this practice to give me in support of your theory? If I don't feel anything, will you count that as evidence against your theory, or will you explain it as somehow supporting your theory, like Freud would claim that a patient was in denial if they claimed not to have some desire that his theory predicted that they would have?

I can answer each of those questions if you want me to. I am willing to spend the time if you ask but what value are my words to you?

I am offering you a map.

If you... (read more)

Thank you for the comment, there's a lot of questions in there to deal with.

My theory is not not just "position = pain" as you put it.  There's a bit more to what I am saying, but at its shortest:

Chronic malpositioning causes pain. (This pain is currently either labelled as idiopathic, or may have a label/syndrome but it's cause is still not understood - i.e. still technically idiopathic.) 

To break it down:

(As I see it) there are two options with "pain". Either: 

  • Signals are generated somewhere in the body and we end up experiencing "pa
... (read more)
2ChristianKl3y
Generally, muscles don't determine posture but fascia do. Using muscles to hold posture is unnecessary waste of energy and adds tension to the body. When bad posture gets fascia to stick together via fibrin the factors that are involved in getting it unstuck in more complex then "you have to have strong muscles" or even acting from those muscles.  That doesn't mean that muscles aren't important but "I have a theory that explains everything while completely ignoring the state of the art" just doesn't give you a complete picture.
2supposedlyfun3y
I'm going to wait for your thoughts on what would falsify your theory, because if it's a real effort, I'll be more inclined to put in the work you are requesting. "Irrelevant" was the wrong word re images; sorry to have sent you down a rabbit hole--I should have said, "not obviously necessary to the point being made and/or unaccompanied by some explanation of why I should learn about what's in the image". I'd look at an image, read your text on either side of it, and have no idea why you were including it.  Why? How many times, for how long? What evidence do you expect this practice to give me in support of your theory? If I don't feel anything, will you count that as evidence against your theory, or will you explain it as somehow supporting your theory, like Freud would claim that a patient was in denial if they claimed not to have some desire that his theory predicted that they would have?

A diagnosis should focus on finding the aetiology. i.e. knowing why there is an issue (not just naming the problem. Anything idiopathic isn't a diagnosis, it's a label IMO).

{IRL I'd want a:

  • Full history including details of all other ache and pains you experience - location, duration, severity, type, frequency, initiating actions etc. The good reason for you suspecting increased muscle tone?  Do you physically feel tense?  Spasms? Restricted movements?  Other health issues, history of injuries etc.
  • Thorough clinical e
... (read more)
5supposedlyfun3y
  If you're that confident in your position=pain theory, why would you need DAMN-IT? Why would your assessment of a patient do anything other than figure out which of your Big 5 muscles are involved in the pain? If the answer is, "Strengthen the glutes and your pain will stop," then how is any pain ever properly characterized as degenerative? Alternatively, if your theory is actually "position=pain/Big 5 unless some other pathology is involved," then doesn't your theory only say, "I'm 99.999 percent confident that pain properly diagnosed as idiopathic by someone who doesn't subscribe to my theory is explained by my theory"? At what point are you describing an invisible dragon? Here's the thing. You say you came to LW to get your theory disproven. Fine. But you are so confident in it that you expect to be wrong about one in one hundred thousand beliefs that you hold with that level of confidence. Beliefs I hold to that level of confidence include 9 * 7 = 63, because it's possible I am misremembering my multiplication tables.  Now. Imagine trying to convince me that 9 * 7 = something else, just you and me in an empty room with no calculators.  This is why your entire sequence went by with minimal engagement and mild upvoting. The amount of work involved in "breaking you" is tremendous, especially over the Internet, especially when your model takes eight disorganized posts and has many irrelevant images in it, and you seemingly haven't absorbed some basic lessons of The Sequences (TM). If I'm going to spend a bunch of time engaging with your theory and finding cruxes, I want to know in advance that you'll play by the rules of good reasoning. I'm not unwilling, but can you first provide three substantive answers to the following question: What evidence would falsify your theory?

I hesitate to use the word "posture" due to the various models it conjures in people's minds (slouching, pictures of the spine etc.) Put these images aside for a moment.

Posture = Position of the body.

All the body, at any time.

Good posture = good positioning - the body works well.

Poor posture = bad positioning.

(Bad positioning could be structural or due to inappropriate usage)

Bad positioning is bad for moving parts. Inappropriate tensions, misalignments, friction, stress.

Bad things in the body - detected by sensors, information transmitted by nerves... (read more)

4ChristianKl3y
Stating that you are 9999,9% confident that a theory is right, isn't a signal that you know what you are talking about. Even if you would say p>0.99999 (which equals 99,999%) that's still a signal for not being well calibrated because having that kind of certainty for that class of statements is incredibly hard to achieve. 
1Randomized, Controlled3y
I haven't had a chance to digest this all, but I'd certainly be interested.
sporadic, idiopathic pain in another joint.

Can I clarify before I spend time writing a long answer - You are looking for a model that explains why you've now got pain in your foot (with a history of knee pain)?

If that's what you want to know, it's not complicated - pain spreads over time.

How I'd briefly explain things:

We alter position to avoid pain.

Positional changes alter the stresses throughout the body (we are connected from head to fingers to toes).

Stresses are unevenly distributed when the body is not in an ideal posture.

Alterations due to p... (read more)

2Randomized, Controlled3y
Yup. I'm also looking to better understand my PF pain. I'd say I'm somewhat confused about this model, based on a reasonable amount of reading. Paul Ingraham, Todd Hargrove and Greg Lehman all point at a lot of clinical evidence that postural and structual models of pain aren't very explanatory, which I think can be 80% pithy sumerized by "there are lots of cases where people have pain in tissues that appear healthy and no pain in tissues that show visible, gross lesions and other damage." I've been working a health coach for the past few months who seems smart and well meaning -- they recommended I make some (reasonably subtle) gait adjustments to help externally rotate the femur while walking. I was quite skeptical of this theory, but I've come across the cue before (ie, to try to emphasize the outer edge of the foot more than the inner), and I've been good-faith trying it to see what happens. I'm about 60% confident that this gait alteration may be involved in the ideopathic footpain -- I've had PF pain flairups before, but never ran into this foot tendon/ligament issue. Thank you for the resources, I'll definitely spend time with those.

I was specifically asking about a vaccine for coronavirus. (I should have said covid19)

The potential profits from such a vaccine could be massive.

Weigh that against the effects of giving the world's population some sort of immunity.



If this vaccine is shown to be effective, the first round of vaccinations will be available at cost from Oxford University and AstraZeneca.:

Landmark partnership announced for development of COVID-19 vaccine

The partnership is to begin immediately with the final terms being agreed in the coming weeks.  This will
... (read more)
2ChristianKl4y
I would be more confident in AstraZeneca prioritizing the project if they would look forward to making billions of dollars of profit with the project instead of them seeing it as being about PR. It also sets very bad incentives for people who invest in pandemic preparedness when they can't make profits on their work. The fact that the big pharma companies didn't predict in advance that being well-prepared to provide a working vaccine for a pandemic like this is a reason why had too little investment into pandemic preparedness in the last years besides. You incentive people to build products that are useful in potential pandemics by allowing them to make profits when the pandemic happens and the products turn out to be useful. I would much rather hear AstraZeneca say: "We will invest all profits made into building up factories to provide vaccines for the future and do research on parademic preparedness because we didn't invest enough resources into the area in the last years."

An interesting read and I'm happy to see people publishing posts like this.

The more that beliefs are questioned, the more improvements in thinking can be made. (or something to that effect, I'm struggling with the wording).

Anything that can be for-profit, should be.

A vaccine for coronavirus could be for profit. Should it be? What would be the overall effects (advantages?) of:

  • having a vaccination that is sold for profit.

compared to:

  • a vaccine that is available on a not for profit basis.

- - -- ---


Money .... keeps people honest

Does it? Fraud. Tax returns ...

2ChristianKl4y
If a vaccine is sold for profit that incentives companies to put more money into vaccine research and building up production capacity.
1jasoncrawford4y
My reaction would be that a vaccine should be made for profit; if there are people who can't afford it there should be a charity to buy the vaccine for them. Re fraud, etc.: Money doesn't *force* people to be honest. Nothing can do that. But it is much easier to fudge things that can't be quantified.

I would ask a different question in each case. (about unrelated subjects)

Well done Lily!

Does Lily want to join the rota and prepare dinner again?

If so, tortilla wraps are fun to do - stuff to weigh and knead (and getting flour all over the place!)

It's a good opportunity to do a bit of math when splitting the dough into pieces (I'd suggest working in grams) and rolling the tortillas can lead to some interesting shapes and designs ...

Various fillings can be prepared to cater for vegans, vegetarians and meat eaters. A mix and match meal for everyone.

2jefftk4y
We've worked in math with sweets: https://www.jefftk.com/p/fractional-sweets

Who gets to hear the question and answer?

Just me or is there a wider audience (that also know the oracle cannot lie)?

1aiiixiii4y
how would you change the question between the two cases?

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19


Abstract
We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs.
We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset.
We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases
... (read more)

Are you reproducing a text-book / full script of lecture or are you making study notes?

Personal experience:

For me, letting go of my need for everything to be neat and complete was a bit step in making notes to learn from. They don't have to be perfect, they need to be useful. A summary in short form, including the key words/points, missing out the rest.

For example, all this text taken from Wikipedia - (no need to actually read it all)

Diabetes mellitus (DM), commonly known as diabetes, is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by a high bl
... (read more)
1petrr2y
Here's a working link for extended 2 months trial: https://readwise.io/i/peter717 Enjoy!

A study, not peer-reviewed:

Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19

HC= hydroxychloroquine,

HC+AZ = hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin

no HC = no hydroxychloroquine

RESULTS: A total of 368 patients were evaluated
(HC, n=97; . HC+AZ, n=113; . no HC, n=158).
Rates of death in the HC, HC+AZ, and no HC groups were 27.8%, 22.1%, 11.4%, respectively.
Rates of ventilation in the HC, HC+AZ, and no HC groups were 13.3%, 6.9%, 14.1%, respectively.
Compared to the no HC group, the risk of death fro
... (read more)
2zby4y
The same result bigger n: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/22/hydroxychloroquine-enough-already

Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begins human trial stage

The vaccine is based on an adenovirus vaccine vector and the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein,

Is the victory bit important in the quotation?

If it's not about the victory/winning, and rather about the path/journey ....

A first draft that springs to mind as I type:

The key to rationality.... is not to chose the label, but to choose to take every opportunity to improve/update your thinking.


(Can't ... stop ... myself ... from commenting: From what I've observed too much ego gets in the way of rational thinking sometimes.)

Thanks for those links. I'll need time to read properly.

I've wondered for a while about the influence of viruses on evolution (just looking at the effects of something like Zika virus for a start) or genomes picking up "new DNA" from RNA templates etc....

3[anonymous]4y
It is mostly just retroviruses that wind up entering the genomes of their hosts. RNA viruses leave a very different imprint: high rates of evolution of the proteins that their proteins interact with, as they race to deactivate their hosts immune responses and their hosts race to deactivate or evade the viral proteins. There is also a constant, diversifying selection on the components of the immune system (HLA/MHC) that display viral proteins from within cells on cell surfaces for the immune system to be sensitized against. Viruses always evolve to take better advantage of the most common of these alleles, and the rarest of these genes are always selected for in populations as result. The end result is what is called 'balancing selection', where rare things become more common and common things become less common leading to the maintenance of great diversity. This is why tissue typing for transplants is so difficult - there is such immune system diversity that most people don't have the same alleles at these loci as each other. Of course, if something new enters the population that a subset of these alleles isn't great against, that set of alleles will become less common over time.

It would be important information if it was true. But is it true?

(SARSr-CoV) makes the BSL-4 list on Wikipedia but coronaviruses are widespread in a lot of species and I can't find any evidence that they are restricted to BSL-4 labs.

Whether BSL-3 labs were allowed to deal with this class of virus, is something that someone should research.

Did anyone do some research?

- --

(SARSr-CoV) makes the BSL-4 list on Wikipedia.

But what's the probability that animal-based coronaviruses (being very widespread in a lot of species) were restricted to BSL-4 labs?

- - -- ---

COVID19 and BSL according to:

W.H.O. Laboratory biosafety guidance related to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Non-propagative diagnostic laboratory work including, sequencing, nucleic acid amplification test (NAA
... (read more)

A good point that "health" is too generalised. I've updated my original request.

Thanks for the full list of tags. I guess there's been a couple of changes in the lists somewhere e.g. "practical techniques" not being added when selected.

The "world optimisation/modelling" and "well-being" ones aren't on the list (page 2 somewhere??!)



To untag a post, just downvote its tag relevance

Cool. Done. A little unpleasant seeing red and and minus vote but it disappeared when I added a new tag, so all good. :)


"well-being" works for me (Christian's point re-" health" tag is we... (read more)

Some info. on coronavirus vaccines in pigs:

Vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus and other swine coronaviruses 2016

Coronavirus (and other viruses) causes severe disease in neonatal piglets. Vaccination of pregnant sows in order to confer "lactogenic immunity" i.e. antibodies in the milk is, as far as I'm aware, the main use of coronavirus vaccines in swine.

(I was a veterinary surgeon but I've not treated pigs in over a decade.)

Research 2019 Recombinant Chimeric Transmissible Gastroenteritis Virus (TGEV)—Porcine Epid... (read more)

I'm liking the tag idea!

But.. how to I remove one (added by mistake to one of my posts)?

A list of all tags currently available would be useful. (rather than seeing what appears on the drop down list when doing a search for various letters).

I'd like a "health" tag (edited to add - I withdraw the request for a "health" tag)

and would use an "anatomy" tag (but that'd mostly be for me as far as I can see).

3Ruby4y
To untag a post, just downvote its tag relevance. (Either in the hover-over or on the tag page). Yeah, agree with need a better solution for showing currently available tags. In the meantime, you can look at www.lesswrong.com/tags or www.lesswrong.com/tags/all A heuristic the team has discussed is that tags should have 3 good post by at least two different authors. I do want some kind of wellbeing category, and a separate health one make sense too. Anatomy, if it isn't a topic discussed by others, may or may not make sense. I'm not sure. If it's to help people find your other writing (the main goal of tagging), you could create a sequence or two to link them.
3ChristianKl4y
As long as we have the COVID-19 situation, we might have too many posts that could be tagged "health" for that to be a useful tag. "Anatomy" however seems to be a good tag.

Test reliability:

sensitivity = number of true positives / number of true positives + number of false negatives (true positives that test negative)

specificity = number of true negatives / number of true negatives + number of false positives (cross-reactions, other infections giving positive result)

Some info. I found here about covid19 PCR test. (It might not be the test that was was used but as far as I'm aware all current covid virus testing is via PCR so the tests should be of a very high spec... (read more)

A US study looking for recruits: NIH begins study to quantify undetected cases of coronavirus infection

A new study has begun recruiting at the National Institutes of Health .... to determine how many adults in the United States without a confirmed history of infection with SARS-CoV-2 have antibodies to the virus.
After enrollment, study participants will attend a virtual clinic visit, complete a health assessment questionnaire and provide basic demographic information—including race, ethnicity, sex, age and occupation—before submitting s
... (read more)

(veterinary) medically/surgically speaking:

Animal owner: ""What are its chances?"

Me: "50-50".

What I mean: Treatment's worth a try but be prepared for failure. The magical middle figures that say ' I don't know, can't guess, don't have an intuition either way, and we'll have to see what happens'.

I've just come across this:

COVID-19 host genetics initiative

A project that's just starting (110 studies registered as I post) but may yield some interesting data in the future.

Being able to release the least susceptible from lock-down and increasing herd immunity. Targeting limited vaccination supplies to the most susceptible. Although a high specificity antibody test will be the game-changer.

Search for "basal body temperature centigrade" (I don't think you need to add female to the search but ...) Look at images and you'll get a lot of graphs.

Knowing when an increase in temp. would be expected for your partner is valuable information.

Daily tracking will show what's "normal" for an individual - using a consistent method to take temperature.

When tracking menstrual cycles it's recommended for a woman to take her temperature first thing in morning (Basal body temperature is the lowest temperature attained by the body which happens during sleep). Temp's don't go above 37.1C on the graphs I've looked at.

A true "live vaccine" is different from "live-attenuated" vaccine. (you're right re the link, it doesn't make the differentiation clear and is poor referencing on my part.)

Due to the increased risks of "live vaccines" (and the ability to attenuate the infective agent in the majority of cases) they are rare but they do exist and are the subject of research.

For example:

Used for military personnel: Adenovirus vaccine contains live adenovirus

adenovirus type 4 and type 7 vaccine, live

Adenovirus Type 4 and Type 7 Vac
... (read more)
COVID and smallpox is their long incubation times, which isn't shared by something like 95% of current ambient disease

I'm not sure what current ambient disease means.

Where do you get the figure of 95% from?


If you're talking about "colds and flu" then yes they do have short incubation times but many other viruses have long incubation times for example HIV, hepatitis causing viruses

https://www.virology.ws/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Screenshot-2014-10-07-13.18.17.png

Some figures for incubation periods for various diseases:

wi... (read more)

1Connor_Flexman4y
The second link was meant to be to incubation times, now fixed. I meant ~95% of the times you become sick, i.e. mostly "colds and flus".

I've edited the post you answered to include stuff I've posted in other comments.


Words are used to convey meaning.

I totally agree. Which is why I've been pushing the point that the meaning of variolation is not what people here seem to accept it as.


Vaccination is a word in common use for all diseases

Indeed. And it's the word that should be used here.

A starting point for increasing knowledge of the subject: live-vaccines (edit to add: not a good link for differentiating between true live and live attenuated/modified vaccine... (read more)

3kevinpet4y
No it isn’t. Quoting your own source “ Live vaccines contain a weakened or attenuated form of a virus or bacteria.”. That is not what is suggested here. Intentional infection through controlled means with the contagious virus hasn’t been used since Smallpox (as opposed to pox parties). There is no accepted term. The meaning was immediately clear to me on first reading it. It appears to be a successful reintroduction if a word for an analogous purpose. It’s even unique enough to be googleable.

Article that might be of interest and clarify a couple of definitions:

does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse?

“The viral load is a measure of how bright the fire is burning in an individual, whereas the infectious dose is the spark that gets that fire going,”
3Elizabeth4y
Fixed, thank you.

The process of vaccination by scratching the skin is known as:

  • "scarification"

or

  • "percutaneous vaccination"

or simply as

  • "scratch vaccination"

(unless specifically for smallpox when variolation is appropriate.)


Via the eyes would be "intraocular vaccination".

Thanks for that info.

It makes a bit more sense why "variolation" is the term being knocked around since the post refers to giving the vaccination by scratching the skin but variolation shouldn't be used when talking about viruses other than smallpox.

This method of administration is known as:

"scarification vaccination" or "percutaneous vaccine"

No it doesn't seem "pretty natural to see people re-purpose" variolation for something that would be labelled in standard and accepted medical terms as vaccination with a live virus.

Find some people in the medical profession that think it's a good idea then I may reconsider my stance, otherwise I've made my point and don't intend to post any more comments on the subject.

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